Week 10 Big Ten Preview

Perhaps the biggest storyline of the week in conference play is that heavyweights Ohio state and Penn State have the week off. Many people are already saying Penn state is in the clubhouse with an undefeated season, but I wouldn’t be too hasty in declaring that. In 2000 we followed our own huge win over Ohio State with a bye week. People were already putting us in Pasadena, but we crapped the bed in a three touchdown loss at Michigan State two weeks later. Only Iowa upsetting Northwestern on the same day bailed us out. Penn State goes to Iowa in a week in a game that feels very similar to that Purdue-Michigan State game. Penn State is a better team though, and I think they’ll do fine.

Elsewhere, we will officially have our first team eliminated from the postseason in the Michigan-Purdue loser on Saturday. The Iowa-Illinois game is critical for bowl positioning (and maybe Illinois’ bowl hopes in general). Indiana steps out of conference to face Central Michigan, officially making us worried if they dispatch the Chips with ease. Other than that it makes for a very boring week with the championship mostly decided and the air taken out of the Northwestern-Minnesota game.

Michigan (2-6, 1-3) at Purdue (2-6, 0-4) Noon, Big Ten Network

To quote Cartman, CRIPPLEFIGHT!!!!

South Park Cripple Fight | Funny Jokes at JibJab

I think I am one of the few people left that believes we can win this game. We’re awful. Michigan is awful. This has the potential to be a 10 turnover slopfest where neither team wants to win. I am slightly encouraged by the fact that among our 6 losses, they have come to six teams that will be playing somewhere in the postseason. Michigan cannot say the same thing. They do have two losses to team that are currently undefeated in Utah and Penn State.

Our offense will be better. It has to be better. Even if Siller plays he will be better after a week of practice. If Painter plays I think we have a better shot of winning, but we’re not totally screwed if Siller plays because of his ability to runt he ball. Mostly I am confident because the Michigan offense is already awful and may be missing its one playmaker. The game may end up being reminiscent of Jim Colletto’s final win, a 9-3 ugly game over a much better Michigan team in 1996. Somehow I think we’ll find away to stay alive one more week. I am picking us only because the defense has played well in a few games and Michigan will turn it over close enough to get some points. At least as a bonus I'll get a chance to meet up with Maize N' Brew for a beer. Purdue 13, Michigan 6

Central Michigan (6-2) at Indiana (3-5) Noon, Big Ten Network

Indiana’s nearly dead postseason hopes have sudden life after the Hoosiers upset Northwestern last week. As a result, I want to bang my head against a wall knowing Indiana has more wins against ranked teams in the last five years than we do. All that stands in Indiana’s way is Central Michigan, a home game against struggling Wisconsin, and the Bucket game. Oddly enough, Central Michigan could be the toughest of the three. The Chips are hungry to get a BCS team, and very nearly did so against us.

Indiana’s victory last week was probably more the result of injuries and Northwestern blowing the game than anything. Indiana hasn’t seen anything like Dan LeFevour, and Central Michigan’s defense is better than most people think. Indiana’s offense is still awful with nearly no running game to speak of. This could turn into a fun shootout, but that’s even more in favor of Central Michigan. The chips may be better than Ball State, and we know what the Cardinals did in their visit to Bloomington. Central Michigan 38, Indiana 30

Northwestern (6-2, 2-2) at # Minnesota (7-1, 3-1) Noon, ESPN or ESPN2

This appeared to be a really good game before Indiana ruined things. The winner would have been a team that had an outside chance at Pasadena if Penn State stumbles along the way. Now Minnesota is playing for a Florida bowl while Northwestern with their poor attendance is playing to avoid Detroit. Northwestern could finish at 7-5, yet be passed over for bowls because of its attendance issues. It is because of that factor that we have our only realistic chance of missing out on Detroit if we win these last four games.

Minnesota appears to be a team of destiny. To go from 1-11 to 11-1 is an incredible turnaround no matter who they have played. With a little more help they can dream of Pasadena Even without winning the Big Ten. It would happen this way: Penn State wins out and goes to the National title game. Ohio State loses one more game (say Illinois) to fall to 9-3 and 6-2 in the conference. With an open Rose Bowl slot and anxious Gopher fans clamoring for a return to 1962 you had better believe the Rose bowl committee would pick them for Pasadena over Ohio State and keep the Big Ten/Pac 10 tradition. All they need to do is win the next four and Goldy can pack for California. It begins Saturday. Minnesota 31, Northwestern 23

Wisconsin (4-4, 1-4) at # Michigan State (7-2, 4-1) Noon, ESPN or ESPN2

Thanks to Penn State, Michigan State is once again alive for Pasadena. I originally thought this game could decide the Big ten title, but Wisconsin did not cooperate. Confidence is at all time high in East Lansing after Sparty shed the “Little Brother” moniker in style last week. They also proved they are a dangerous team because they can balance the running of Javon Ringer and the passing of Brian Hoyer. Even if we get past Michigan Saturday I think our bowl hopes die in east Lansing.

Wisconsin salvaged a bit of its season last week by beating Illinois in Madison. A bowl bit is all but assured now with Indiana and Cal Poly left on the schedule, but it is still a disappointing year for a team that expected to contend for the national title. Things still aren’t working totally smoothly, and going to Michigan State is not the way to work them out. Michigan State 24, Wisconsin 14

Iowa (5-3, 2-2) at Illinois (4-4, 2-3) 3:30 ABC

If Purdue is going to go anywhere for the holidays they had better cheer for Iowa Saturday. We need to get three teams non-eligible for the postseason even if we win the last four. Winning the last four eliminates Michigan and likely Indiana (they’ll at least get loss #6 at Penn State). The third team can be Illinois, but to do so they have to lose this game. We then must hope for Ohio state and either NW or Western Michigan to beat them and two teams go to the BCS. It’s bleak at the moment, but that is all that is preventing me from going over to basketball coverage totally.

Iowa can do it too. Shonn Greene has quietly had possibly the best season of any Big Ten running back. Considering the conference has Beanie Wells, Evan Royster, Javon Ringer, P.J. Hill, and Kory Sheets that’s a pretty good crowd to stand out from. It really all depends on which Illinois team shows up Saturday. They seem to do better at home, but Iowa hasn’t exactly been awful on the road. Iowa 21, Illinois 17

Quickie National picks:

# 7Texas Tech 41, #1 Texas 38 - Home field advantage and the Red Raiders are due. This cannibalistic conference will get them before its over.

#8 Florida 21, #6 Georgia 14 - And two loss Georgia starts whining again about how they deserve to be in the title game without even winning their division.

Miami 21, Virginia 13 - Welcome back to the ACC race, Canes. Please make the game I am going to in two weeks worth something!

Michigan preview

Saturday could be the worst affront to American football since the Indiana game two years ago. At least Michigan was expected to struggle some this year. Purdue has been bad in a year when much more was expected. Because of overtime rules someone has to win this game. It won’t be two inept offenses ending in a 0-0 tie like the 1983 Oregon-Oregon State contest. Someone has to score once, even if it is by accident.

This could quickly be reduced to a slapfight. Both teams need to win to keep the faintest of bowl hopes alive. Even then, the future doesn’t look good with road games remaining for each against ranked opponents. I never thought I would see the day where I looked at the schedule and was more relieved to see Michigan coming to town more than Minnesota. The wolverines once again present us with a winnable game. Unfortunately, I have little confidence that we will be able to win it unless Michigan loses it.

Michigan offense:

One game in particular stands out for the Michigan offense. Toledo gave up 35 points in its home stadium in a 35-16 loss to Florida International. FIU is consistently one of the worst offensive teams in Division 1-A. That same Toledo team waltzed into the Big house just a few weeks later and won 13-10 without even scoring an offensive touchdown. Michigan helped them by allowing a 100 yard interception return and missing a game-tying field goal from inside the 10 yard line at the end. In my opinion this is worse than the Appy. State loss because at least the Mountaineers moved the ball and made some very big plays. At least Michigan moved the ball against them too!

If possible, Michigan’s offense may actually be worse than our own. We have turned the ball over 19 times and missed seven field goals to show our number of missed scoring opportunities. Michigan has 24 turnovers in eight games and is just 5 of 8 on field goals. In short, this game should be accompanied by paper bags being handed out to the crowd as they enter the stadium. Michigan ranks 111th nationally in total offense and 102nd in scoring. We carry a ranking of 71 and 93 in those respective categories. I would give us a slight edge based on that alone, but the quarterback situation handicaps us even more.

It is not like Michigan has a definite answer to its own quarterback woes. Steven Threet (89-172-6, 7 TD’s) and Nick Sheridan (29-54-5, 1 TD) have split time at the position with Threet getting most of the snaps. The Michigan passing game is downright awful with either player. Michigan quarterbacks have been sacked 15 times and have rushed for 217 yards in an offense designed to have the quarterback run the football. Neither player has proven to be effective at moving the ball against anyone, and the Wolverines will struggle until they find a quarterback that can. This can be laid solely at the feet of coach Rich Rodriguez because there is no excuse for a program with Michigan’s talent, tradition, and history to get this bad, his fast.

What success Michigan has had comes from a ground game that has the potential to be good, but often gets in its own way. Sam McGuffie is a promising young back with 470 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the season. Purdue fans will remember Brandon Minor coming in and having a field day last season after Mike Hart left with an injury at halftime. Minor has 258 yards and five touchdowns. Other than Threet (183-2) no one else ahs done much on the ground for the Wolverines. Michigan could be even more limited as McGuffie is questionable for this week’s game with a head injury sustained last week.

The good news is that we get a break from facing a great running back before facing Javon Ringer and Shonn Greene in the next two weeks. It should be simple, especially since the run defense has preformed admirably of late. Unfortunately, I remember the Notre Dame game. We are more than capable of turning Brandon Minor into LaDainian Tomlinson for an afternoon like we did with Armando Allen.

The passing game should be even less of a threat. The operative word there is should. In addition to having thrown 11 interceptions, Michigan doesn’t boast a receiver with more than 350 yards. The Wolverines’ passing game is probably less effective than our own. Martavious Odoms leads the team with 32 catches for 329 yards, but hasn’t found the end zone. Greg Mathews (22-259-1) and Odoms are the only two receivers with more than 100 yards receiving. McGuffie (18-136-1) is questionable as mentioned, and we actually figured out how to defend a running back screen last week. Because of that we might be able to stop Michigan entirely with a defense that hasn’t play too poorly of late.

My bet is that Rich Rodriquez was waiting for this game alone to spring his secret weapon against us as far as the passing game goes. His name: Roy Roundtree. Had Roy kept his commitment to Purdue he could be one of our leading receivers. Instead, the only thing #16 has caught this year is a series of splinters in his butt since he hasn’t moved from the bench.

Michigan’s defense:

Michigan’s defense has been much like our own in that it has had stretches of good play only to be left out to dry by the offense. As poorly as he has played this year, Curtis Painter at least gives us a chance to win this game if he plays. If he is in there, Michigan must at least respect he pass. If not, they will load up to stop the run like the Gophers did and dare Siller to beat them through the air. Siller will need to show marked improvement with the additional reps he gets this week if we want to move the ball through the air with him playing.

Both Painter and Siller will need to spend the day running from Brandon Graham. The defensive end is a beast with 8 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. He will be in the backfield most of the day, especially since our offensive line is currently in shambles. Michigan also has a balanced pass rush behind him. The Wolverines have 19 sacks on the season spread amongst ten players, but Graham is the only player with more than two sacks.

The run defense is also respectable at 126 yards given up per game. I maintain that Kory sheets is not the problem when it comes to running the ball. The fact that no one else is a threat to run the ball for us is the problem. Sheets has 806 yards on the season, but the next highest total of anyone on the team is Siller with 55. 17 of those came last week. The Michigan run defense doesn’t have to be that good when it already knows Sheets is the only one that will be rushing the ball. Defensive Tackle Terrance Taylor leads that attack against the running game by plugging up almost anything in the middle. He is allegedly the team’s best NFL prospect.

Linebacker Obi Ezeh leads the defense with 75 tackles and an interception. He has six stops for loss, but has yet to record a sack on the season. Safety Brandon Harrison is also pretty good at defending both the run and the pass. He has 53 tackles, two for loss. The secondary as a whole can be passed on. Michigan ranks 101st in the country in pass defense, meaning that if Painter can play and finally have a successful game it will help our chances immensely. Brian Hoyer threw for 282 yards and three scores last week. The defense also allowed 194 yards and two scores to Javon Ringer.

Where Michigan struggles defensively is that its offense barely gives the defense any time to rest. Opponents have the ball almost seven minutes more per game than the Wolverines do. We’re in almost the same boat ourselves, but to have success we must have sustained drives and keep the Michigan defense on the field. If we can quickly end their drives and build a lead the Wolverines do not have enough of an offense to come back. The Wolverines have given up almost a 3rd of their points in the fourth quarter. They have scored only 14 points all year in the third quarter, so that is where we must make our move.

Michigan Special Teams:

The Wolverine offense has been a little like Northern Colorado’s in that they often don’t get close enough for field goal attempts. This group is often a touchdown or bust group, especially since it has trailed most of the season. Even so, K.C. Lopata is just 5 of 8 on field goals. His miss from 26 against Toledo shows he is far from reliable even when the Wolverines do get close.

Michigan does have the best punter in the league in Zoltan Mesko. Aside from having a badass name like Zoltan that makes it sound like he should be crushing skulls with his bare hands, Mesko averages 44.6 yards per kick and has buried opponents inside the 20 yard line 18 times on 53 kicks. He only has two touchbacks as well, so he is very good at what he does. Teams are only returning punts for an average of 2.7 yards per return. We shouldn’t expect anything from the punt return game, but it’s not like we had anything anyway.

Michigan’s own return game isn’t stellar. The Wolverines are averaging 21.2 yards on kickoffs and 5.1 on punt returns. Odoms returns most of the kicks, while Donovan Warren handles punts. This is a departure from what has been a major strength for Michigan in the recent pass, but remember last year’s game turned quickly on a muffed punt of our own. We can’t afford mistakes on returns because we’re certainly going to have them elsewhere.

Final Thoughts:

I think this game will be very simple. If Curtis Painter plays and can even be marginally effective we will win. He has been far from his best this year, but he at least gives us a threat in the passing game. The downside there is we lose a running threat with Siller. This is our last chance to salvage something from this season. It is time to play both Siller and Painter at the same time so teams must prepare for both. If we get a similar effort this week from our defense as we got against Minnesota we can stop Michigan’s pitiful offense. If that is the case all we need is a couple of drives from the offense that result in points.

I like playing Siller and Painter both because Siller gives them another thing to think about on the ground. Kory Sheets has provided 86% of our yards on the ground this year. That’s way too high of a percentage. We’ve got to develop other rushing threats to capitalize on his big play ability. Unfortunately, Siller is not any kind of a passing threat yet unless he shows dramatic improvement in practice this week. Plus, if Painter can’t go and Siller gets dinged up we’re down to scout team quarterback Chris Bennett.

Michigan is also banged up in its own right. McGuffie is their most dangerous offensive weapon, and he may be out. This could easily turn into a punting contest between Chris Summers and Zoltan Mesko.

Both teams are mistake prone. The winner of this game will be the team that capitalizes most on the other team’s mistakes. I know I am crazy at this point, but I am not giving up. In football, momentum can change in a hurry. With just one win this week we can start turning things around and at least have a small chance going into Michigan State next week. To do so we have to get something going our way. We have to get a lead. We have to get a small break our way. We have to get a big defensive stop. Anything can start things going in the other direction again. We haven’t played a complete game all year, so we’re due.

I don’t even think we need a complete game. We just need a win to have something positive to talk about. I don’t care if we win 3-0 on a 55 yard field goal from Wiggs because that’s as close as either team can get to scoring. A win would wash away some, but not all of the stink of the past five weeks. The defense is capable of doing its part, and I think the offense can do just enough to not be as craptacular as theirs. A win also means the bowl hopes, however faint they are, can stay alive for another week.

Boilermaker basketball preview, part 2

Yesterday of the back court was exciting. Today's look at the frontcourt and general outlook on the season is a bit more questionable. Rebounding was a major issue last year. In the second round of the NCAA's we ran into a team that was very similar to us in Xavier. The main difference was experience and strength. Their guys were able to outmuscle in the paint based on their experience. They were a good look at what we want to be in the future.

Purdue didn't bring in any massive players in order to bang down low with the bigger teams it will face. If all reports are to be believed, it didn't need to. Robbie Hummel has already been named as the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, while While JaJuan Johnson is expected to have developed into a solid true post presence in his sophomore year. A couple of key contributors, one a former starter, are expected to round an area that needed improvement, and got it in a big way.

Frontcourt:
Starters:
Robbie Hummel, So
JaJuan Johnson, So

Hummel is a guy that has enormous hype placed on him this season. Fortunately, there are enough weapons around him that we don’t necessarily need him to perform at a high level each and every night in order to win. That is why I think this team will be great. They all feed off of each other. They all played together successfully last year and when one was down, the others picked him up. It’s almost like something clicked in the loss in East Lansing. When we played the Spartans very close in a game no one gave us a chance in its like everyone began believing. Robbie can do everything. He can shoot, rebound, and defend. The biggest play he made all year may have been the block at the end of the Wisconsin game in Mackey.

That is not to say we don't need Robbie Hummel. He missed the first Michigan State game last year with the flu, and had he played it might have been the difference between victory (and later, a Big Ten championship) and defeat. Against Xavier he was held to just seven points on 2 of 10 shooting from the field. No one is irreplaceable, but losing Hummel would be a more serious blow than losing about anyone else on this team because of his versatility.

Johnson has been dubbed as the guy that can send this team into the stratosphere. He probably has the most pressure on him to perform, but again, others are there to pick him up. Everyone was excited when he gave us just a taste of what he could do with a 10 point, 8 rebound effort against Baylor in the NCAA's. He is stronger this year and had a very good performance during hte Australian tour.

I don’t think his play will be as critical as those who will be giving him a few minutes of rest each night. Two years ago against Florida we went with one post player against their huge line and nearly pulled off a major upset. Carl Landry was very good. He is getting well-compensated this year in the NBA as well. JaJuan could be better, and if he can get help from Calasan and even Reid for a few minutes a night it makes us better. If Calasan and Johnson can both log minutes at the same time that gives us even more versatility. Then we can go big if we need to or small if we need to.

Key bench contributors:
Nemanja Calasan, Sr.
Chris Reid, Sr.

Even if Johnson develops into an absolute beast in the post we are still a team without an overwhelming amount of size. I think it is amazing that we won as many games as we did last year when we continually got owned on the boards. Despite Johnson’s development we still need these two guys to contribute in case of foul trouble, injury, or simply just to give him a break every few minutes. Teams that rely on a dominant big man and only one always run into trouble when that big man gets taken away for any of the reasons above. Because of overall talent we won’t suffer as much, but we will suffer less if these two can play.

I really like Calasan as a player. I think he will take a major step forward now that he has a year of Division I basketball under his belt. He is another guy like Marcus Green that can step forward and provide 10-12 points of unexpected offense any given night. He also has a great attitude and is almost like a Bosnian Brian Cardinal. Calasan can hit hte occasional three as well, meaning he is not chained tot he paint when he is in there. I would love to see him get low and bang with some of the bigger bodies out there to take some of the heat off of Johnson.

With Reid, his expectations are so low that any contribution will be a bonus. His size alone is reason enough to give him a look every now and then even if only to take up space and absorb fouls. Hell, Chris Dudley had a long NBA career for the Knicks based on taking fouls instead of Patrick Ewing. As far as I know, that was Dudley’s only useful basketball skill. If Reid can just give us five good minutes a night with a couple rebounds it takes a little pressure off of everyone else.

The schedule:

It is tougher this year, but most of the difficult games are at home or on a neutral court. The Duke game is going to be absolutely huge. For some reason we have always played the Blue Devils very well. Who can forget the cold night in Alaska five years ago when we ran the Blue Devils off the court for a big early season win? As the number one seed in the preseason NIT we are favored there, and I certainly like our chances to beat Duke in Mackey. I cannot wait for that game, because it will be rocking. Even my non-college basketball loving wife is excited to go. In her own words, “You’ve been talking about it so much I’m excited to go and I think college basketball is boring.”

If we win the NIT and get past Duke there is a strong chance we will be unbeaten going into Big Ten play. Considering what will be a very high preseason ranking, we could be #1 in the country by then. I am dreaming of course, but this team is just that good. The Big Ten looks to be top heavy again with four heavyweights of Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State at the top, but Illinois and Minnesota are good enough to get us in road games. Penn State could be tricky too.

Much has been made about how this team will handle being the hunted. I am of the school that thinks the Australian trip with a couple of tough losses were good for this team. That, and the fact that coach Painter is already reminding them that preseason expectations mean exactly diddle squat. He is not going to let them sit back and rest on last year. Despite all the praise heaped on them in the past few weeks they have yet to accomplish a single thing. There will be the unavoidable rough spots, but I am confident coach Painter will get through them. 18 home games will helps, especially since Mackey Arena is once again a home court advantage again. Only an Ohio State team two years ago with multiple first round draft picks and the unexplainable Wofford game a year ago have been losses in the last 24 months.

The Off the Tracks official prediction for the year is a 27-4 record, going 15-3 in the Big Ten and winning the title. That should be good enough to get a top 3 seed in the NCAA’s and a trip to nearby Dayton for rounds 1 and 2. As for that tournament, I am saying we make the sweet 16, with a berth in the elite 8 depending on draw and matchup.

Final thoughts:

I love this team. I love the way they play egoless basketball and work to get everyone involved toward a common goal. In the 2006 tournament I hated Connecticut. I hate the way they were a team of incredible talent, but didn’t play together. They looked like they were only in it for themselves and trying to get to the NBA. They were incredibly talented yes, but if they had played like Purdue plays they would have destroyed everyone in their path on their way to the title. Instead, they very nearly became the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 and won two more games they should have lost before losing to George Mason.

Purdue is not like that. These guys would bleed for each other. They scrap, fight, and make teams play their style of basketball. Based on talent alone Florida should have wiped the floor with us two years ago. Instead we forced a better team to play our pace and we nearly pulled it off. The good teams are the ones that can do that. The great ones are the ones that can not only do that, but adapt to play a number of styles. Last year we were a grind it out team. Against Baylor in the tournament we played their style and ran them out of the gym. I love that versatility.

Mostly I like this team simply because it is fun to watch. Basketball has always been my first love both as a sport to play and watch. Growing up in Indiana it is hard not to have that. It is one of the few areas where I can totally lose myself in the joy and flow of the game and forget about anything else that is going on at that time. When the game is played as beautifully as this team can play it when it is on it very nearly brings me to tears. Not only are these guys talented, they love playing with each other. Everyone compliments everyone else very well. Scott Martin apparently had a problem with this and removed himself from the equation. I don’t think we will even miss him. If he turns another ankle he will miss Nemanja Calasan carrying him off the floor.

The dream of a national championship may still be a little far off, but who would have dreamed a Big Ten title was ours for the taking last year? It would have been a Big Ten title if not for the loss in Bloomington just before Indiana imploded. I think this season will be a step toward two real shots at the 2010 and 2011 titles. As brother-in-law has always said though, “We’re here, the fans are here, they came to see us, they’re keeping score. Why don’t we go out and try to win this thing now?”

Boilermaker basketball preview, Part 1

I was originally going to do a one part preview, but its original incarnation was almost 2,800 words. That left me with two choices: either cut something out or split it into two parts and expand on it. As a result, tonight we'll be dealing with the backcourt on a team laden with guards. The second part of the preview will deal with the front court, which is the area of largest for the team. This certainly beats writing another article on the struggles of the sinking football team. Right now, basketball is giving me faith in Purdue sports.

If this is the final season that I will be living in Indiana it is setting up to be a dream season. My beloved Kokomo Wildkats appear to have their best team since the 1997 state finals appearance that I had a very small part in. Purdue looks to have a team that could get a top 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. That would make for a very cozy (and highly tempting) Dayton-Indianapolis-Detroit route to the Final Four right here in the Midwest. The women's teams for both schools, especially Purdue, look to be loaded as usual. It's an exciting time to be here, and it could only be a preview for an even bigger 2009-10 season for all four teams.

It has been a long time since there has been this much excitement around Purdue basketball. Even my sophomore year, when the Boilers made an unexpected run that very nearly put them in the Final Four right here in Indy, there wasn't that high of expectations coming into the season. As a senior, I was one of about 10 people still in the student section as we watched John Allison get outrebounded by just about everyone on our way to the first losing season under Gene Keady. That season was painful to watch. We had quite a bit back from an injury-plagued NIT-worthy season in 2000-01. It wasn't a good sign early when Butler came in to Mackey Arena and looked totally confident even when down 14. They ended up winning by six for their first win in West Lafayette since 1954. I didn't think it could get worse than that, but it did. I don't even mean the final 13-18 record for that season.

But things are so much better now. I find myself envious of the Paint Crew after going through what we went through in the first years of the Gene Pool. If this team continues to play selfless basketball the sky is absolutely the limit for them. Even North Carolina, a team that many are already handing the national title to, would be beatable if we play to the maximum of our abilities. We are no longer the Baby Boilers. We're not even the Toddler Boilers. We are the Boilers, and we are back.

Guards:
The Starters:
Chris Kramer, Jr
Keaton Grant, Jr
E'Twaun Moore, So

A shooter, a stopper, and a scorer. What a combo if you're going to go with a three guard lineup. These three complement each other in so many ways that it is a shame we can only play three guards at a time. The real question is who goes to the bench when freshman point guard Lewis Jackson comes in to run the offense?

Kramer is everything you want from a team captain. He reminds me of the type of player I am, except he actually has basketball talent. God did not bless me with a ton of talent, but he did bless me with more than enough heart. Yes, I was the type of player that played with reckless abandon diving after loose balls and generally acting like my very life depended on each possession. I now have two bad feet and a twingy knee to thank for this, but I wouldn't have it any other way. Kramer is that type of player. He is a "play in the other guy's jersey" type of defender that is hated by every opponent, but loved by our own fans. He is a blue-collar player that plays Purdue style of basketball. That's why we love him so much. To me, it seemed as if his scoring was off ever since his concussion at Clemson last year. It was almost like he was just a little hesitant offensively. If he is healthier this year (I doubt he will ever be completely healthy) and can score we will be just that much better.

Defensively, all I can say is that we have the reigning Big Ten defensive player of the year for two more seasons. Our defense rallies around Kramer's leadership on that end of the floor. Most nights we can stick him in the jersey of the other team's best guard and worry about playing four on four when Kramer is in the game. That is a huge advantage, and will need to be exploited if we are going to have a deep tournament run. We may actually struggle more against versatile teams that don't have one guy designated as "the man".

Keaton Grant reminds me of Cuonzo Martin. He can be a lights out shooter that does most of his damage when teams are distracted elsewhere. He's the type of guy that will kill you if you try to stop Hummel, Moore, and Johnson down low. Simply put, you cannot stop everybody. When we have scorers like Moore and Hummel out there someone is going to get lost in the fray. Grant ended up getting lost enough times last year to end up as team MVP. He is also supposed to be even healthier after offseason knee surgery. A healthier knee means he can create some space for himself and get open more quickly off of screens.

Part of what makes Moore dangerous as a scorer is because we don't have to rely solely on him to score points. We are not a one man show with him as the star. Part of the reason my Kats lost in the 1997 state finals is because we had one player, Herman Fowler, go for 27 points while our next highest scorer had five in a 50-43 loss. Having a great supporting cast that will carry their weight makes having a dangerous scorer like E'Twaun Moore all the more fun. If we're getting the regular contributions from everyone else and happen to have a game where E'Twaun goes nuts I have a very hard time seeing us losing that particular game. Even then, E'Twaun only needs 12-15 points per game to make us more than successful. Like Grant above, teams can't concentrate solely on him because we have so many other weapons. As long as Moore plays within this system we'll be fine. How many other teams don't have to rely on a preseason first-team All-Big Ten player? It is a luxury I am glad to have.

Key bench contributors:
Lewis Jackson, Fr
Marcus Green, Sr

LewJack, as the Boiled Sports guys like to call him, may have more anticipation surrounding him than the fab four freshmen of a year ago. I have yet to see him play, but people are raving about his athleticism and ability to distribute the ball. When he is in the game he is expected to be the conductor of our symphony of offense. He also has the ability to break down his defender and get a quick score if needed. I am thinking he is an Austin Parkinson type only with a much better ability to create his own shot. My only worry is how he as a freshman will respond to a step up in weight class. If he responds like last year's freshmen he will be fine.

Marcus Green is another "lost in the system" type of guy. He is one of our few seniors as we're projected to start five guys who could still be starting next year. Last year he did a little bit of everything and we need him to serve in that role once again. He is listed a guard/forward, so his rebounding and picking up the easy second chance points will be an area that he can contribute nicely. I'd love him to play like I do in this respect. The one niche I have had in my game is the ability to come flying in from the perimeter, grab a missed shot from amongst the trees, and lay it in before anyone even realizes I am there. There is no better feeling than watching two guys on the opposing team taller than my 5'11" size look at each other in shock as I head back down the court after doing that. Marcus needs to do that.

Possible contributors:
Ryne Smith, Fr
Bobby Riddell, Sr
John Hart, Fr
Mark Wohlford, Jr

This group of four are all good players and probably would have been starters in the late Keady years. Coach Painter has already said that it is likely that one of either Hart of Smith will be redshirting, but we won't know for sure until after the exhibition games. It is nice that they have that luxury. Both have the looks of being big role players in 2010 and beyond as we have another stellar class behind them. They are in a bit of a sandwich class with last year's group in front of them and next year's group behind them, but they will likely serve as critical glue that will help hold a championship team together.

Smith is more of a pure shooter and a two guard. I can see him being a 3-point specialist off the bench and someone who can take some of the long-range burden from Keaton Grant's shoulders. He averaged 18 points per game a year ago mostly from the perimeter, so he has been known to fill it up.

Hart was a late signee from Beech Grove, one of the suburbs of Indy here. He is probably more athletic than Smith, but not as much of a distributor as Jackson. With all the good players in the Indianapolis area recently he was named the Marion County Player of the Year, so that is worth something. He also attended the same high school as women's team great Katie Geralds. He's another guy that can create his own shot as well as run the break.

Riddell is a former walk-on who has seen his minutes decrease from earlier in his career. He's one of the final holdovers from the dark times of Painter's first season, where he was often playing starter's minutes. He is the picture of "student section favorite" as townie walk-on that can shoot the ball fairly well. Chad Kerkhoff played a similar role during the 1999-2000 season. I don't expect Riddell to play a lot, but when he does get in a game, especially at Mackey Arena, expect the students to go nuts.

Finally there is Wohlford. He is in his second year as a walk-on, and I sincerely hope he at least gets his name on his jersey this year. He's not going to be playing significant minutes unless there is a huge rash of injuries, but he will make some major contributions in practice. His game action will be among the most limited on the team, but expect him to play at least a couple of times this year.

Final Thoughts:

I am very encouraged that many of these guys played last year and will be back next year. They will teach Hart, Jackson, and Smith what it means to play unselfish basketball, which is the most key aspect of this team. Our offensive style is one that actually struggles with a "me first" type of player. Fortunately, we don't have a single player here with that attitude, and painter would rip him a new one if we did. Last year Indiana fell apart after the Sampson firing because the players had the "me first" attitude, we won't have that problem.

These guys also compliment each other extremely well. We have a good balance of shooters and slashers. With Jackson we have a better ball-handler and distributor. If their was one weakness of the backcourt last year it was the lack of a true point guard. Tarrance Crump played very well in the NCAA tournament games, but was a non-factor for much of the season. Jackson is expected to be a better fit than Crump from day one. This backcourt will be able to shoot, drive, distribute, and even rebound some if asked. There is some good size here with all three projected starters over 6'3". If they can crash the boards it will assist the front court even more.

Paying some more bills:

If you.re in New York, L.A., or Boston, you might be interested in some of these:

Gillette Stadium Tickets

Staples Center Tickets

Nassau Coliseum Tickets

Week 9 Big Ten wrap and blog poll ballot

Since starting this blog just before the 2006 season it has primarily been a football blog. Even in the offseason I have primarily focused on the football team. Last year I made the move to year round coverage starting with the breakthrough season by the basketball team. Despite the fact that the football team is in a nosedive it cannot seem to pull out of, I have stayed with them as the primary focus.

That will begin to shift this week as the basketball team tips off it exhibition season Friday night in Mackey Arena. I'll still do write ups on the final four games of the season, but since the Big Ten is already decided I'll probably step back from doing Big Ten football stuff as a whole and start doing some more basketball stuff. This starts tomorrow, as I will release the first of my two (maybe even three) part preview on the basketball team.

As mentioned, the Big Ten is all but decided now. There is little reason to go into much detail as Penn State has all but officially won the conference, the other bowl bids have been decided in terms of the teams that will go bowling, and the Boilers will be done in short order. Even if we beat Michigan at home this week we won't survive a two game road trip to Michigan State and Iowa. Therefore, as I rank the Big Ten this week, I will let the other bloggers in the Big Ten bloggers' network comment on this week's performances. I'll also post the likely bowl destination for each team.

The basketball rankings will bring about the return of funny comparisons, I assure you.

11. Purdue (2-6, 0-4) Result: Minnesota 17, Purdue 6 - no bowl - Ugh, we're just terrible right now.

10. Michigan (2-6, 1-3) Result: Michigan State 35, Michigan 21 - no bowl - At least we will now have company at home in December. The loser this week gets a stay of execution.

9. Northwestern (6-2, 2-2) Result: Indiana 21, Northwestern 19 - Motor City Bowl - Someone has to go, and Northwestern just stated their case for Detroit. I almost put htem in 11th so they would think about what htey did for a week, but after seeing Lake the Posts I am just not that cruel.

8. Indiana (3-5, 1-4) Result: Indiana 21, Northwestern 19 - no bowl - I still think that Indiana will probably lose its last four games, but at least they put up a fight against Northwestern. Will we against them?

7. Illinois (4-4, 2-3) Result: Wisconsin 27, Illinois 17 - Insight Bowl - I wouldn't be too hasty to put the Illini in a bowl yet. Iowa is playing well, they won't beat Ohio State, and Northwestern at home in the finale could be our ticket to the postseason if we pull off a four game miracle. Let's all calm down now about Ron Zook as a savior.

6. Wisconsin (4-4, 1-4) Result: Wisconsin 27, Illinois 17 - Champs Sports Bowl - Really, the Big Ten still isn't very good at this point. It was good to see Dustin Sherer, a kid I wrote about quite a bit in high school, play well.

5. Iowa (5-3, 2-2) Result: bye - Alamo Bowl - I officially apoligize for thinking Iowa would be where we are right now and vice versa. Black Heart Gold Pants seems to be much more realistic about Purdue at the moment than me.

4. Minnesota (7-1, 3-1) Result - Minnesota 17, Purdue 6 - Outback Bowl - I kind of feel bad for the Gophers. They won because we had no offense at all yesterday and they brok two big plays to set up touchdowns. other than that, we kind of outplayed them. They're going to dominate a weak schedule and probably get killed by someone like Florida or LSU on new Year's Day. I know it is sour grapes, but the prickish Gopher fan in front of me yesterday set me off.

3. Michigan State (7-2, 4-1) Result: Michigan State 35, Michigan 21 - Capitol One Bowl - Michgian State is probably going to finish 9-3 with their only losses to teams that will likely finish in the top 15. Not bad at all. I also predict they will end our bowl hopes after we beat Michigan. I hope I enjoy East Lansing.

2. Ohio State (7-2, 4-1) Result: Penn State 13, Ohio State 6 - Rose Bowl - Can I please have a 10-2 season that ends in the Rose Bowl be a disappointment? It is entirely possible both losses will come to the teams playing for the national championship. Since the Rose Bowl wants to keeps the Big Ten-Pac 10 matchup at all costs except the Buckeyes to be there if they win out and Penn State plays for the title.

1. Penn State (9-0, 5-0) Result: Penn State 13, Ohio State 6 - National Championship game - Iowa could be tricky this week, but Indiana and Michigan State will not touch the Lions in Happy Valley. Not with what's at stake. They must take care of business and simply wait for Texas or Alabama to lose. That will happen.

Blogpoll draft ballot:

Once again, there wasn't much change at the top my rationale for the top four remains: no undefeated BCS conference team should be behind a 1-loss team. If the one loss team wants to complain they shouldn't have lost their game. As usual, there is chaos at the bottom with four teams dropping out. I have decided the #25 spot must be cursed.

What is interesting is how Boise State, Tulsa, Utah, and Ball State are climbing in both this poll and the BCS poll. If mass chaos erupts, Boise State is already high enough to sneak higher and higher until they get some moderate consideration for a titel shot themselves. Since I love chaos, I hope a Penn State-Boise State championship happens.

And yes, placing Miami at #25 is complete homerism. They've played well lately and are still alive in the ACC.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	--
2	Penn State	--
3	Alabama	--
4	Texas Tech	--
5	Oklahoma	1
6	Florida	1
7	Georgia	1
8	Southern Cal	1
9	Oklahoma State	4
10	Utah	1
11	Boise State	2
12	Tulsa	3
13	Ohio State	3
14	Missouri	6
15	TCU	1
16	Ball State	1
17	LSU	5
18	Brigham Young	--
19	Oregon	3
20	Minnesota	3
21	Florida State	5
22	South Florida	8
23	North Carolina	3
24	Michigan State	2
25	Miami (Florida)	1

Dropped Out: Kansas (#19), Boston College (#21), Northwestern (#24), Arizona (#25).

Bucket or Bust

In my Know thy Team series from this summer I mentioned a very far-fetched scenario. On the quarterbacks’ entry, I mentioned how scout team quarterback Chris Bennett and incoming freshman Caleb TerBush would only see the field in an absolute disaster.

Both quarterbacks were warming up in the second quarter. When Justin Siller was hobbling around after getting knocked around all day one of them came close to actually going into the game. A position that has been this team’s strength in every season under Joe Tiller (save 2001) has been a glaring weakness all year. We have a 10,000 yard passer that is injured and has been benched for two different guys. The weakness of the position showed itself as we easily had our worst day throwing the ball since Jim Colletto roamed the sidelines. Being down to our third string quarterback, who was far from prepared after a questionable move to running back earlier, any kind of a passing game was eliminated. The offense did nothing, and another great effort by the defense was wasted.

I said it after the Notre Dame game, but this season is now over. It would take a four game winning streak just to get marginally bowl eligible now. Even if that miracle did happen there is no guarantee of a spot being open for us. We’re playing for pride now. We need to win the bucket back in the game’s final season and begin building for next year.

Positives from the Minnesota game:

The defense – Basically, we win this game 6-3 if not for two huge plays that gave the Gophers nearly a third of their yards and set up both touchdowns. On the first, Weber made a great throw (aided by a missed blatant hold) and Brandon Green had a good run after the catch. The second was Weber making a back-breaking run that finished the game with a final touchdown. We had a couple of chances to get a stop on that drive and get the ball back only down four. Weber was the best offensive player on the field today.

The rest of the time Minnesota got nothing. Even the field goal was set up by a defensive play that gave them a short field. Eskridge was contained so much that we shockingly stopped a couple of running back screens. We held the Big Ten’s leading receiver to 50 yards below his season average. You can’t ask for more from this group, but they need offensive help. I still maintain that there is no reason we should lose any game that we hold a team to 20 points or fewer without it being the fault of the offense. Maybe Brock Spack deserves to stay a little longer after all.

Justin Siller – He is still very raw. He needs some coaching and he was holding on to the ball way too long any time he looked down field. Still, it was exciting to see he had an elusiveness we have sorely needed from the position. I don’t know how badly Painter was hurt, but when we needed to pass late he was probably the better option (if healthy). Earlier though Siller was moving the team until Minnesota adjusted. I was really hoping he would do some spread option stuff with Sheets and Bolden combined. That would have been fun. I think it would actually have been nice if he had stayed at QB this year and learned even mroe backing up Elliott next year. He is obviously the future, but we will have some growing pains and we may have to have him play through them.

Kory Sheets and Ralph Bolden – Sheets obviously played more than Bolden, but both did very well when they were in there. Credit should be given to the Minnesota defense. They knew we couldn’t pass the ball in the second half and adjusted accordingly. As a result, they met Sheets any time he had the ball. Still, Kory’s first fumble of the year came at the absolute wrong time.

Jeff Lindsay – Something needs to be said for the way he fought for that first down in the fourth quarter. It’s too bad we followed it with a missed field goal.

Playcalling -- Whether it was desperation or what, at least we got a little creative. The two fake handoffs and bomb to the end zone by Siller was a well run play. It was only off timing-wise from being a huge touchdown at a big moment. The Tardy throw was still in double coverage, but at least it was downfield.

Negatives from the Minnesota game:

Turnovers – We experienced a rarity in that Weber threw an interception, but our turnovers were far worse. The first interception was not Painter’s fault. Whitest had the first down but couldn’t corral the catch. It, along with both fumbles, came at the worst time. They only resulted in three points for the Gophers, but they all came as we were on good drives of our own. Unfortunately, this is just the mark of a bad football team. We hurt ourselves just when we’re beginning to do something good.

Preparation – It was obvious today that Siller has the tools to be a very good quarterback some day. This means he should never have been moved to running back. Ralph Bolden has emerged as a good player in that regard. Siller lost two months of preparation at the position, and struggled throwing the ball today. It’s almost like no one imagined he would actually have to play the position. He did very well running the ball, but once Minnesota played to stop the run he was ill-prepared to throw.

On a related note, how can we have unprepared backup QB's at a school known for the position?

The officials – It was obvious we didn’t have the A crew from the Big Ten. It wasn’t so much some missed calls, as only one in the aforementioned missed hold actually hurt. The officials never seemed to have control of what became a very feisty game. I am not one to call a team a “dirty team”, but there were a few instances where Minnesota players went a little far today. The officials never seemed to discourage this and it felt like something was brewing the whole game.

Minnesota fans – I’ve been to several Minnesota-Purdue games in West Lafayette and even one in Minneapolis. From my experience, they have been some of the most cordial fans in the entire conference. Not today. There was one fan in particular that was in my section that was openly confrontational with the Purdue fans around him. At one point he actually was yelling for the Gophers to hit Painter in the arm again and knock him out of the game after he came back. This was absolutely uncalled for.

Purdue fans – Speaking of poor fans, we need to be held accountable for booing a hurt Minnesota player as he was hurt. We also had no need to boo Painter after he came back. I gained a new measure of respect Painter when he tried to fight through that injury. He deserved to be cheered for at least giving it a shot. I now have no question about his effort anymore.

Final thoughts:

Is this rock bottom? It’s the same story every week. We let a winnable game slip away because of our mistakes. For the third time in four weeks the defense played well enough to win, but we couldn’t even get across the 15 yard line, let alone score a touchdown. Now we are in dead last place in the Big Ten. We are the only team in the conference without a conference win and we face a game next week where the loser will be the first Big Ten team officially eliminated from postseason consideration.

I’m not quitting though. I said I would not quit believing we can do something until we’re mathematically eliminated. We can beat Michigan. The defense is good enough to limit Michigan State and Iowa, meaning we need to find some offense somehow. I still think we’ll win again Indiana too. It is highly improbable at this point, but I won’t give up.

We just need to concentrate on Michigan and Michigan alone this week. If we cannot beat the Wolverines this year we probably won’t be beating them for some time. All we need is one thing, one game to give us some positive momentum and we can start turning thing around. The seniors deserve better. Tiller himself deserves better. I keep hoping we’ll come out and play with some pride to get a win. That can happen this week.

Unfortunately, we’re just a bad, bad football team now. The in-game coaching wasn’t bad today, but injuries and general poor play cost us. It’s really a perfect storm of injuries, lack of talent, underperforming talent, and coaching at this point. We can overcome some of those for a time, but we haven’t overcome all of them except for maybe the first half of the Oregon game.

At least now we know that a loss next week means we can start building for next year. I already have in a way. I took advantage of the Follett’s 25% homecoming offer and purchased a Jaycen Taylor jersey because I knew it would get some good use next year. It joins my Kory Sheets and David Pender jerseys in the closet.

If this entry seems disjointed it is because I really don’t know what else I can say at this point. I find myself paying more attention to Miami since I am going down there for a game in two and a half weeks and preparing for basketball season. Since that officially starts Friday night it is appropriate that football’s hopes will likely officially end on Saturday.

#24 Minnesota at Purdue Open Thread

How far have we fallen? This week marks the 8th anniversary of the Holy Toledo play. That was easily the height of the Tiller Era. If we fall to Minnesota today, it was be the low point of his tenure. Thanks to the generosity of Boilerdowd, I have a tape of that 2000 game against the Buckeyes. As I am getting ready this morning to head to West Lafayette, I have that tape int eh VCR.

sigh

The comments are open. I leave you with three things. A pair of videos to give us some hope, and the speech given by one of my readers before the Oregon game this year.

To every diehard Boilermaker within driving range of Ross-Ade Stadium...let's do something about it. I don't know about you, but my weekend will be a lot happier with a big serving of ROAST GOPHER. Let's rally together and make Saturday a special day that will go down in Boiler/Tiller history with Notre Dame '97, Kansas State '98, Michigan '00, and every other huge win that lives in our memories later. COME TO THE FOOTBALL GAME. WEAR BLACK. BE LOUD. PULL AN UPSET.

Quit worrying about if it's going to rain or not...it's just water.

Don't wait for the students to fire the crowd up. Fire the students up.

Don't complain about whether or not the game sells out...just make sure YOU buy YOUR tickets.
Don't be the last person to stand up on the Gophers' 3rd and 2...be the first one.

Don't be the last person to yell on a kickoff...be the first one.

Don't be the quietest wettest crowd in Ross-Ade Stadium history...be the loudest one.

We're waiting on that signature win...some of you say we've been waiting way too long. Let's do our part to go and get it.

Make our own magic.

Need to get fired up? Go watch some Spoilermaker clips...check out the Rose Bowl celebration on Purduebands.com...rewind that Alamo Bowl classic on BTN one more time. Whether there's 40,000 or 50,000 or 60,000 in the stands tomorrow, let's be an insanely loud Boilermaker faithful.

Time for some Gopher hunting.

See you tomorrow.

GO BOILERS!

Week 8 Big Ten Preview

My answers to The Daily Gopher's questions went live this morning, so check them out. TDG does a great job promoting a rising team in this conference.

Depending on what happens this weekend, I may be turning my attention to basketball more and more beginning on Monday. This is clearly our final chance to salvage anything out of this season., I am one of the dwindling few that thinks it can happen, let alone believes that it will. It’s a damn shame too, because the seniors and Tiller himself deserve better than this. They deserve better, but for the most part it is their own making.

Our own struggles aside, this is likely the weekend where the Big Ten title is decided. Barring some major upsets along the way, the winner of Saturday night’s Ohio State-Penn State game will represent the conference in the Rose bowl (or more?). The loser also stands a good chance of going somewhere because of an excellent record and devoted fanbase. That is good for our own fading postseason hopes. I don’t want to say they are on life support, but by kickoff of the Ohio State-Penn State game we’ll either be in improved condition or they will be calling family members in asking to pull the plug.

#24 Minnesota (6-1, 2-1) at Purdue (2-5, 0-3) Noon, ESPN Classic

The Gophers cracked every top 25 near the bottom this week including the CBS Sports blogpoll. I even had them ranked on my final ballot. That factor along makes me want to pick them by at least a touchdown given our own 0-17 streak. If we win, we not only give ourselves a temporary reprieve on the season, but we finally get that elusive win over a ranked team. Sure, it would be viewed as one of the cheaper wins over ranked team, but none was cheaper than Notre Dame’s 2005 win in Ross-Ade over us (yes, we were ranked at kickoff).

Since this game is being played on ESPN Classic it is only fair that we get to use Drew Brees. Brees lit up Minnesota for more than 1,000 yards in his three games against them. He was so dominant that Glen Mason almost personally drove him to New York for the Heisman ceremony as a senior just so he wouldn’t have to face him again. Despite a 9-1 record against the Gophers under Tiller, a win would only even the overall series at 31-31-3. It has also been 18 years since the Gophers won in West Lafayette. Unfortunately, that won’t be a worry. This will come down to what both teams do best. Minnesota has confidence and doesn’t make mistakes. We are not confident, and we make mistakes. Minnesota 31, Purdue 20

#22 Northwestern (6-1, 2-1) at Indiana (2-5, 0-4) Noon, Big Ten Network

Indiana joins Purdue and Michigan as teams at the bottom seeking a final shot at redemption his week. Their game is almost a mirror image to own, but everyone is giving them less of a chance to win. The Hoosiers have been about the only team worse than Purdue this season, so hopefully we can manage to get the bucket back where it belongs on November 22nd. The Hoosier defense has been non-existent and the offense almost as bad. I have a hard time seeing them pull this off.

Northwestern, meanwhile, gets another week to tune up for what could be a huge game with Minnesota next week. Advertisers may not like a Gopher-Wildcat showdown meaning big news in the Big Ten, but fans of parity (like myself) do. Tyrell Sutton should have little trouble getting going here. Northwestern will only struggle if their turnover problems from earlier in the season appear. A healthier Kellen Lewis at least gives Indiana the marginal threat of a running game, but not enough. Northwestern 38, Indiana 17

Illinois (4-3, 2-2) at Wisconsin (3-4, 0-4) Noon, ESPN or ESPN2

As part of our fading postseason hopes, I say go Illini. Part of the formula for a bowl game is getting as many teams in the conference as possible with seven losses so one of the Big Ten bowls has no choice but to take us. Illinois can help in that regard by beating a demoralized Badger team that seems to have given up on its season. If Wisconsin wins, we can likely forget about a bowl no matter what we do anyway because they will get to six wins and be a much more attractive choice.

Unfortunately, Jekyl and Hyde Illinois is in line for a Hyde week. Two weeks ago turnovers cost them an unexpected loss to Minnesota. Last week the Illini could do no wrong against Indiana. It is a matter of which team will show up. Illinois has not been good, especially defensively, away from Champaign. They have gone 0-2 and have surrendered a ton of points. Those games were against Missouri and Penn State though. What Wisconsin does is anyone’s guess. I say the Badger finally pull out a close one at home to stop the spiral. Wisconsin 20, Illinois 17

Michigan State (6-2, 3-1) at Michigan (2-5, 1-2) 3:30pm, ABC

This one could be quite delicious to watch. Michgian State is anxious to go into Ann arbor and silence the taunts of “Little Brother”. Michigan is probably not going to a bowl game, but short of ruining Ohio State’s title hopes at the end of the year they would love to have even more ammo in the “little Brother” debate by beating Michigan State. The Spartans also want to make amends for last week after Ohio State walked into their stadium, pulled their pants down, and spanked them in front of the most excite MSU crowd in years. It was worst than our blackout debacle against the Buckeyes a year ago.

On paper the Spartans should win handily. Crazy things happen in this rivalry though. Michigan State takes it more seriously than Michigan, and that is one of the reasons that “Little Brother” bugs Spartan fans so much. If Michigan pulls the upset I have hope that my tickets for the game up there in two weeks might be worth something. Basically, it is the annual “will Michigan state crumble” test. They passed it last year by crushing us in Ross-Ade, and I think they will pass it this year. Michigan State 30, Michigan 10.

#3 Penn State (8-0, 4-0) at #9 Ohio state (7-1, 4-0)

Abject terror are the words I would use to describe the thought of Terrelle Pryor playing in this conference for at least two more years. After what he did to a motivated Michigan State team in East Lansing last week I am sure I am not alone in thinking that. Ohio State has been at the top of the Big Ten mountain for several years now. If Penn State does not knock them off in Columbus Saturday night they will likely be on top for a long time to come. Even if they do, the Buckeyes won’t need a long time to get back.

If this game were in State College I would probably go with Penn State more readily. They are probably playing for more because win also means a clear path to a national championship game. I won’t even buy the argument a one loss Georgia team should get ahead of them. If Georgia was that interested in playing for the title ahead of another unbeaten team they should have beaten Alabama (of course, if they beat Alabama in the SEC title game that could be moot). I think Penn State has an edge because they are more balanced one both sides of the ball. I think that gives them an edge, but they won’t crush skulls as they have in the eight games to this point. They have the defense to slow the running game and make Pryor throw. Penn State 17, Ohio State 16

Quickie national picks:

#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas - one team loses a shot at the national title until there are fewer than two unbeaten teams. Texas is at home, but if OK State pulls an upset it will be huge. Texas 31, Oklahoma State 24

#7 Georgia at #13 LSU - See above, only each team already has one loss and is done at this point. I always go with the home team in the SEC. LSU17, Georgia 13

#8 Texas Tech at #23 Kansas - The Red Raiders play a real team for once, and they get shocked on the road. Kansas 31, Texas Tech 30

GUEST BLOGGER: The Daily Gopher

I am celebrating this 300th post in OTT history by sitting on my butt and letting someone else take over. Tom over at the Daily Gopher approached me this week with some questions about the Boilers for our homecoming contest this Saturday. Tom does a great job of compiling the Big Ten bloggers' pick 'em standings each week. He is the former publisher of Gopher Nation, which joined with Paging Jim Shikenjanski to form the Daily Gopher over at SB Nation. Here is what Tom had to say about the Gophers, with his answers to my questions going up tomorrow morning. This is an excellent comment to yesterday's Minnesota preview.

Off the Tracks: 6-1 is certainly a departure from 1-11 last year. Are the Gophers way ahead of schedule by your perspective? Will things continue to grow from here?

The Daily Gopher: If the team can keep up with the growing expectations then this team will play in Pasadena sooner than even the most optimistic Gopher fan thought. Realistically though, this team is much further along than any of us imagined. In August I think most Gopher fans would have been pleased with 5 or 6 wins including a conference win or two. That would show improvement and would greatly aid in recruiting. It is amazing how expectations have changed over a couple months. At this point people will be disappointed if we don't get to eight wins.

Will things grow from here? Things are looking good. We start one senior (TE-Jack Simmons) on offense and just three on defense. Combine the return of nearly all of our impact players with the experience gained by this year's freshmen (a top 20 recruiting class) and things are looking up for Gopher football.

OTT: Much has been made of the difference in turnover ratios from last year to this year. How has the defense gotten that much better after being so awful?

TDG: There are a number of reasons why the defense is better. First of all Brewster added a few JUCO transfers who immediately brought a new level of athleticism and talent to the defense. Secondly there were two position changes that have had a significant impact on the defense. Most notably is the move of the former walk on, wide receiver Marcus Sherels to corner. Sherels is arguably our best cover corner and a undoubtedly an upgrade over anything we threw out there in 2007. Thirdly I think there is a comfort and confidence with this defense. They are no longer wondering about what to expect from Brewster and his new staff and can focus on their responsibilities. Then they had some early success which has given them a confidence they never had last season. I think that Ted Roof has been a great teacher and is the reason they are playing with this comfort and confidence.

OTT: Describe the maturation process of Adam Weber and the rest of the offense if you would please. Eskridge seems to have emerged as a very nice surprise in this.

TDG: This is once again all about being comfortable in the system and with the coaching staff. The 2007 offense was led by a r-freshman QB trying to learn a system that couldn't be more different than what was run the year before and they were adjusting to a brand new coaching staff. There were many quotes this August about how a year ago they spent their practices trying to figure out how to line up but now they are able to focus on execution. Brewster is fortunate that he inherited a QB who is capable and well suited for a spread offense, Rich Rod is facing the same issues as the 2007 Gopher offense but he is lacking a QB. Weber has matured and grown into the offense. He is is a rare sophomore captain who is leading the offense on and off the field.

Eskridge has been a pleasant surprise. He is dangerous out in space but isn't the kind of back who will wear down a defense. He is dangerous on screens and flares (Ed. note: great, we can't defend screens for ANYTHING!) but it is hard to get a good read on just how good he is because our offensive line has really struggled for much of the season and his holes have not been very big.

OTT: Seriously, what is Tim Brewster doing to lure such good recruits to Minneapolis? Is it the new stadium? Big City campus? Free bags of crack? j/k

I have no idea how he was able to get some of the recruits he did. First of all his positivity and infectious personality is contagious plus he worked at it very hard. He stated a year ago over and over that EVERYTHING they do was done to boost recruiting. The previous staff treated recruiting with disdain and routinely pointed out the challenges faced at Minnesota (Ed note: this refrain sounds familiar). Brewster constantly talked about the benefits of Minnesota, that attitude change had as much to do with the recruiting turnaround as anything else. The new stadium helped, but a year ago it was just a hole in the ground. The crack helped with the Florida kids. The Twin Cities helped a lot too. I think he was fortunate to get some good weather on key recruiting weekends so the Texas kids who thought it was winter up here year round.

OTT: Finally, how exciting is it to have a new stadium in the wings when no one else in the conference can come close to claiming such a feat (renovations don't count, everyone else)?

TDG: I can't even tell you how excited I am for the new stadium. I would bet you anything there is more atmosphere and electricity at an Indiana or Northwestern home game than there is for any Gopher game in the Metrodome. Having a stadium on campus will be a blast and be something that an entire generation of Gopher fans has not been able to experience. It will quickly become one of the toughest tickets in town. Which says a lot when you factor in the Wild, Gopher hockey and the Vikings.

It will continue to help with recruiting but most importantly it will be like the athletic department has won the lottery with the revenue it will produce. In their current metrodome lease they get only a portion of concession revenue and zero suite revenue. Starting next year they will get more money per seat and 100% of the revenue from suites and concessions. This will go a long way for the entire athletic department.

Quickie Boilermakings:

• I got my basketball preview issue today and my tickets yesterday. Let's just say it is like waiting for a release from prison after what has happened this football season. I'll probably start working som more basketball stuff in here over the next couple of weeks. There will be more coverage than last year's last second discussion to move from football-centric coverage to Boiler-centric coverage.
• Boilers hoping to keep foes guessing. Somehow I doubt we have beent hat confusing offensively. Boiled Sports, as usual, offers a better take. At least we won't have to worry about Kory Sheets talking to the media any longer. This seems kind of Ministry of Truth-esque if you ask me.
  
• The women's soccer team is currently in 4th place in the Big Ten, but has a pair of huge games against Penn State and Ohio State in West Lafayette this weekend. Winning both will likely put them in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title.
• The volleyball team continues to play well, but was swept by Illinois in Champaign last night. They are still a top 25 team at 16-5, 5-4 in the Big Ten and likely headed to the NCAA's. First place Penn State is also #1 in the country and has yet to lose a set on the year. They visit West Lafayette November 15th.
• In a very cool gesture, the Bucs retired Mike Alstott's jersey last week. Alstott is probably my favorite Boilermaker short of Drew Brees. He was the one bright spot of the infamous Colletto years, and I have always wondered what kinds of teams we would have had if he had played in the early Colletto years. This is a great honor for a Boiler that may end up in Canton some day, and should be in South Bend for the college hall of fame.
  

Minnesota preview

This could be the week our streak against ranked teams ends. We get the gift of an unexpected game against a ranked team that we were expected to beat when the season started. Unfortunately, we are running out of must win games if we are going to make a bowl this season. I am well aware that it is delusion at this point, but I am not giving up on a bowl bid until it is no longer mathematically possible. I know this team is capable of reeling off four of the next five to sneak into some game, but it certainly doesn’t look like it will happen.

At least basketball practice has started.

Minnesota offense:

Lost in last season’s dismal 1-11 campaign was the fact that Minnesota’s offense really wasn’t that bad. Unfortunately, they often had score about 45 points in order to have even a chance at winning. This year it is more efficient. Northwestern has been careless with the ball and continued that trend somewhat last week. Minnesota gets the ball and keeps it until they score or punt. They don’t score an avalanche of points at just under 30 per game, but normally they win the time of possession battle simply by not turning it over. Minnesota has lost only 6 fumbles on the year and Adam Weber has thrown just two interceptions.

Weber has been the picture of that efficiency with good, but not overwhelming play from the quarterback position. He is completing nearly 68% of his passes and has 10 touchdowns against 1,624 yards. He averages only 230 yards through the air per game. As a runner he has been up and down. In terms of yards gained he is second on the team with 178 yards and two scores, but 131 of those yards have been erased do to tackles for loss and 13 sacks. He is not quite the running threat that Terrelle Pryor, any of the Oregon quarterbacks, or Daryl Clark is, but he is probably about on par with C.J. Bacher from last week.

That running game is not great, but it is steady at 129 yards per game. The loss of Duane Bennett was originally thought to be a major setback at the tailback position, but DeLeon Eskridge has emerged to be a very good back in his first season for the Gophers. Eskridge has 478 yards and seven touchdowns through seven games, but has been especially good lately with 124 yards and two scores against Illinois. He is also a weapon in the spread attack, ranking second on the team in receptions with 17 for 128 yards. Assisting him in the backfield is Shady Salamon (136 yards, 3 TD’s)

The receivers present us with, at least on paper, a simple task. If we can stop Eric Decker, the Minnesota offense will grind to a halt. Decker already has 59 catches for 782 yards and five touchdowns, leading the Big Ten in all categories. He has more receptions, yards, and touchdowns than the next four highest receivers combined for the Gophers. This means we actually must read a scouting report, make a defensive adjustment to cover him (possibly even double team him since he is a good receiver, you know) and force the Gophers to throw elsewhere. That means we pretty much have to do everything we flat out refused to do against Michigan State’s Devin Thomas last year.

The receiving numbers become even more skewed when you consider that Bennett with 12 catches for 125 yards and a score is currently fifth on the team despite having only played in two games. Jack Simmons (15-174-1), Ben Kuznia (17-155-0), and the aforementioned Eskridge are the other biggest threats, but they don’t even come close to Decker’s production. Even my low IQ can see that Decker is going to get the ball. We know Weber will be looking his way first 90% of the time. I know this, you know this, hell, DOGS know this. We must be prepared for this, and if we act like we are surprised he is getting the ball yet again as he goes for 20 receptions, 220 yards, and 3 scores I will be incredibly upset. On the other hand, obviously Minnesota is doing something right if they are 6-1 and he continues to stand out for more than 8 catches and 100+ yards per game.

The Minnesota offensive line is not as stout as Northwestern’s, giving up about 2 sacks per game. They also allow about 5 tackles per loss each time out. We should be able to generate some pressure, but it depends on if the Purdue defense vs. Ohio State shows up, or the Purdue defense against Notre Dame. The numbers that Minnesota puts up offensively shows me that if we can get a similar effort from our D that we got against the Buckeyes our chances of winning will greatly increase. They aren’t particularly flashy, but they are just an incredibly efficient attack.

Minnesota defense:

Simply put, the Gophers are just night and day better from last year. The Minnesota offense isn’t doing a whole lot better than a year ago, and may actually be a little worse in terms of production. Of course, those numbers could be down simply because it is not playing catch up every week, or moving because the defense couldn’t keep stop fast scoring drives. Everyone scored on Minnesota last year, including the freshman foreign exchange student in the band. This year the numbers are drastically better as the Gophers allow a modest 122 yards on the ground, 260 through the air, and 18.7 points per game. They have been outgained by their opponents, but the defense simply allows fewer points.

A large part of the explanation of giving up fewer points comes from the fact that the Gopher defense has become a den of thieves. They have intercepted opposing quarterbacks 10 times and recovered 10 fumbles. Combined with the offenses propensity to hold on to the football, that gives the Gophers a Big Ten leading +12 in turnover ratio. It is bad news because we tend to gain a lot of yards while not getting many points. We also turn the ball over, playing right into the hands of the Minnesota defense that gives up yards but not points and takes the ball away.

There is no true leader of the defense in terms of a tackling machine like we have seen in James Laurainaitis or anything like that. This is a very balanced, team-oriented group that sees a number of players get involved. Seven players have at least 30 tackles on the season, with none higher than Tramain Brock’s 42. Lee Campbell has stuffed the stat sheet a number of ways with 40 tackles and two each of sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries. We also need to watch out for Simoni Lawrence, who is a big play threat on defense. He has 2.5 sacks to with 31 tackles and seven pass breakups. He also has returned both a fumble and an interception for touchdowns.

Another reason Minnesota has gotten better is the development of a solid pass rush. They have 17 sacks on the season, and no one on the team is better at getting to the quarterback than defensive end Willie VanDeSteeg. He has 6.5 sacks on the season and has been a menace along the line by batting down passes. Quite frankly, he is one of the league’s better D-ends, and our beat up offensive line must be ready for him since Painter can’t run away. Eight players on the Minnesota roster have at least had a hand in a sack at one time or another, so VanDeSteeg is far from the only threat.

Much of the improvement has come in the Minnesota secondary. A year ago teams took turns burning an overmatched secondary like the LA riots of the early 90’s. This year players like Traye Simmons (2 INT’s, 25 breakups and passes defensed) are hounding opposing wide receivers into incompletions. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 56% of passes against the Gophers and have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.

The Gophers are somewhat vulnerable to the running game. They give up 122 yards per game, and that is without having faced a really good rushing team other than Ohio State. The running game is the only area of the game where we are moving the ball with any regular success. Even then, we have one of the league’s better running backs, but we’re near the bottom of the conference in rushing as a team. Kory Sheets has carried more than his share this year, but he needs some help. It is blatantly obvious that the passing game is not working. To say it is not working because the running game hasn’t helped is ludicrous when Sheets is on pace for the best season ever from a Tiller back.

Minnesota Special Teams:

Like the rest of Minnesota’s teams, the Special Teams have been capable but not overwhelmingly spectacular. Joel Monroe has been an adequate kicker hitting 7 of 9 field goal attempts with a long of 42 yards. He is also 24 of 26 on extra points, so he’s not quite as automatic there as one would like. Still, he is far from a liability in the kicking game.

Minnesota has had to punt almost as much as it has forced opponents to punt, and that is a little more than five times per game. Justin Kucek is a pretty good punter at just a hair below a 42 yard average per kick. Opponents are only returning those punts at less than 8 yards per return, but it has been ages since we have had a threat to return a punt anyway. Minnesota has been pretty good at defending kickoffs, but they have given up a big return for a score. Remember, Desmond Tardy did burn them a year ago to start the game, so this may be a plus.

The Gophers’ own return game is slightly above average. Marcus Sherels is a dangerous punt returner at almost 12 yards per return. He has yet to break one for a score, but our coverage could let one slip at the wrong time like it did against the Oregon game. Troy Stoudamire is averaging a little more than 28 yards per kickoff return, but also has yet to break a big one. Since field position was such a large issue last week we cannot let these give the Gophers a short field like we did against Northwestern.

Final Thoughts:

If I were to use one word to describe the Gophers so far it would be the word adequate. There isn’t one thing that they do better than anyone else unless you count turnover management, but there isn’t a whole lot that they do really poorly. That is going to win you a lot of football games at this level. The opposite has been Purdue’s story this year. Of our five losses I think there is just one game in which another team simply asserted its will and flat out beat us. That was the Penn State game. Even then, we still played well and held the number three team in the country well below its scoring average. We still had plenty of mistakes in that game that kept us from having a chance.

Part of this comes from Minnesota’s level of competition. The two road wins are pretty good. They handled a good Illinois team in Champaign and throttled Bowling Green at home. A visit to a MAC stadium is always tricky, and Bowling Green did beat a pretty good Pittsburgh team to start the season. Outside of that, home wins against Indiana, Northern Illinois, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic aren’t exactly wins against college football’s elite. The point is that Minnesota has won those games where last year they may not have. They needed a late touchdown to beat Northern Illinois in the opener, and that ending seemed to give this team a ton of confidence.

Bowl eligibility is already locked up for them. Now they can play for positioning. With Ohio state already gone and no Penn State in sight the Gophers can actually think of a pretty good bowl game if they finish strong against some weaker teams. Northwestern, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin remain after this game, and they certainly can win all four. If they do that and get some help, the gophers could end up in Pasadena this year as crazy as it sounds. All they need is two Ohio State losses and a Penn State loss. One of those three losses will happen this weekend.

What especially gives Minnesota an advantage is the aforementioned consistency and efficiency. They are doing that right now, while we are not. Nothing would really surprise me at this point. The defense could come in and throw a near shutout like it did in Columbus. Curtis Painter could remember, “Hey, I’ve thrown for 10,000 and maybe I should throw to receivers instead of over them or at their feet.” Kory Sheets could openly rebel against coach Tiller, shoving Painter out of the way and taking the snaps in a Wildcat formation on his way to a 250 yard game. What it really amounts to is that we have to change a large number of things in order to win, while Minnesota needs only to play its consistent style of play in order to win. That is the mark of a good football team, while ours is the mark of a bad one to put it in the simplest of terms.

Finally, the weather could be a factor. Minnesota has ventured out of the dome only twice this year, and played in perfect conditions both times. We played our best (against Oregon) in the worst conditions of the year. If it is windy and rainy we could see a mano-a-mano battle of Sheets vs. Eskridge. I would give the edge there to Sheets for now, but Eskridge has still been impressive.

Unfortunately, I feel like this team has ventured past the point of playing for anything. Many people commented how listless they looked last Saturday in Evanston. We got worked by an above average, but not great team when we should have at least competed. Minnesota is very similar to the Wildcats in that regard. The only common opponent we share so far is Ohio State. They couldn’t stop the Buckeye offense that day, but at least they moved the ball and scored points. Minnesota has even impressed some in defeat. We cannot say the same thing.

Saturday is one final chance to salvage something from this season. Even then, one win won’t totally turn things around. It will only start them. Right now, outside of a few individuals, everyone from the coaching staff on down doesn’t look interested in even starting a turnaround. On a team with this many seniors that is just sad, especially for homecoming. The official prediction will come in the Big Ten preview, but it likely won’t be favorable.

White Out themed Roundtable

It’s time for yet another Big Ten Roundtable, as this week’s edition after a short hiatus is being hosted by the Penn state blog Nittany White Out. The view from the top must be good this week as we have some great questions to discuss.

1. We're approaching week 9 now, are you pleasantly surprised or
already waiting for basketball season?

I wouldn’t say pleasantly surprised. I am surprised, but it is more a disgusted kind of surprised that comes from seeing once high hopes fall even further than the so called experts predicted us to fall. The cruel thing is that if we can turn it around this week and beat Minnesota, I’ll still believe something can be salvaged out of this season. Minnesota is, after all, a ranked team. A victory would end our streak, give me hope we can steal a road game at Iowa or Michigan State, and hold serve at home against the two teams that might be worse than us to sneak back to Detroit for a bowl bid. I have to be losing my mind to think back to back Motor City Bowl and a potential blowout by Ball State or round four vs. Central Michigan is success this year.

In short, basketball season cannot come fast enough. Florida Southern tips us off on Halloween night.

2. Describe one specific play from this season you would alter for a
different outcome if you had the chance to.

It really is a tie. I would choose either Chris Summers making the game-winning field goal against Oregon at the end, Painter finding a wide open Kory sheets in the first overtime for the win, or Brandon King not getting tackled from behind as he looked to have a sure pick six in the same game. If he goes all the way there we lead that game 14-3 with even more momentum. As it was, he was tackled from behind and we only managed a field goal. Mr. Sheets had his own issues this week with Painter not finding him open. While Kory is right, it is a sign that this team has disintegrated like no Purdue team before it. There are a number of plays that could have given us a different outcome in that game, but those are the three largest. I wonder how different this season would look had we won that game. It is the only loss this season that one play would have made a difference.

3. How could it (#2) possibly impact the way your season is going?

Well, being 3-4 at this point would certainly look a whole lot better. It would also mean our streak against ranked teams would be long gone (and a whole new one would have started!), we could still go bowling without winning a road game at all, and there would have been a marquee win to build on. It almost feels like this team blew its load in the Oregon game. We played our best game of the season, yet still beat ourselves with too many mistakes and honestly dumb play calling at times. We absolutely dominated them for almost three quarters, but they turned the game around with a huge punt return for a score when we probably should have gone for it n 4th and 1 from midfield when we were getting five yards per run.

4. Big Ten player you just can't stand, why?

Interesting question. At the moment there isn’t anyone in particularly I dislike. I’m not in a position as a Purdue fan to really call anyone out, either. If I can reach into the past I would have to go with Michigan State’s Drew Stanton and Iowa’s Drew Tate. I’m not a gambling man, but if I had been when they were playing I would have lost a ton of money. Drew Tate had a Curtis Painter-esque senior season in terms of hype and not living up to it. Stanton was just the type of player that was supposed to be dangerous, but could never deliver when needed. He may be the best Big Ten offensive player since Mike Alstott to never play in a bowl.

5. Boo'ing your own team (we've seen quite a lot of this across the
Big Ten this season), your feelings on this.

I usually don’t do this, but I have been known to yell a thing or two toward the sideline in my day. The funniest story comes not from me, but from something I witnessed at a Purdue game.

Facing Northwestern in a night game at Ross-Ade during the 1995 season Purdue was trailing, but was still in that window where a quick score would have made things interesting. My brother-in-law and I were leaving, but decided to poke our heads in through one of the student section entrances to see what was going on. I think Purdue was down like 14 with about 5 minutes to play. In typical Colletto fashion, the “offensive genius” had his team taking its sweet time in the huddle and on the field. As we’re watching (with Purdue’s sideline being on the student section side at the time) some student well into his cups bellows, “WAY TO WORK THE CLOCK, JIM! YOU’RE A REAL MASTER AT IT!” above a nearly silent crowd. It still draws chuckles whenever Brian and I talk about Purdue football to this day.

In short, a clever barb like that is much better than a straight out boo.

Bonus Round

1. Number of beers or alcoholic drinks consumed by week 8 (or a good
estimate)

Before or after games? So far the only game I have been able to drink beforehand was the Oregon one. Some fine Sam Adams Octoberfest and Breckenridge Brewery Avalanche gave me an elevated sense of self esteem on my way into the stadium. Considering that was the best half of football we’ve played in years I should probably drink more often. As far as after games, they have been necessary. I would say there have been about 20 total drinks consumed through seven games, thus not making me a total lush.

2. Most annoying commercial seen this season

I am really getting annoyed by the Nissan “saved by zero jingle”. I don’t know why, but it rubs me the wrong way.

3. Your prediction for the next coaching change in the Big Ten (Joe
Tiller exempt)


Bill Lynch seems to have taken all the positive momentum that Terry Hoeppner built and flushed it right down the crapper. Even I as a Purdue fan will admit that I expected better from the Hoosiers at this point. I wasn’t thinking 10 wins as some deluded fans were hoping, but I certainly expected them to be a 6 or 7 win team and be much more competitive in losses. Indiana hasn’t even been close. You know it’s bad when the Hoosiers returned a pair of All-Americans in Greg Middleton and Austin Starr, yet the Hoosier Report itself said they wouldn’t need to worry about being All-Americans this year. I’ve tried to be upbeat in my disgust at Purdue. John hasn’t been, and rightfully so. Hoosier fans were teased with a taste of victory last year, only to have it washed away just when it looked like something very good was brewing.

Week 8 Big Ten Wrap (with blogpoll ballot)

I keep hoping. I keep hoping that there will be a turnaround and something will be salvaged from this season. For it to happen now, we must win four of the next five beginning this week with a ranked Minnesota team coming to time. I keep expecting there to be one game where everything comes together and it all finally clicks as it is supposed to. With five teams already bowl eligible and teams like Iowa and Illinois close to gaining it themselves even if we do get to six wins there is no guarantee of a return to Detroit. It’s not much, but let’s face it, it would be a triumph at this point.

The news got even worse today. Joey Elliott is now done for the season. He joins key players like Kyle Adams and Jason Werner who continue to be “just weeks away” from seeing the field. Those two are good players, but they are not season savers. Elliott’s injury is unfortunate because we not only lose a player who looked to be ready for a major break, but he also now loses valuable prep for next year. This means Justin Siller now moves back to quarterback. This could be a blessing, but he has to improve if he is going to be “the man” under Hope.

As for the rest of the Big Ten, I sucked at picking the games. We now have a clear Big Ten championship game when Penn State visits Ohio State next week. The winner will represent the conference in the BCS barring a major slip up, while the loser has the best shot at reaching the BCS as an at large team. For our sakes if we get to 6-6, I hope they do. Personally, I don’t think it will matter for us unless something changes drastically.

The non-bowl teams:

11. (11) Indiana (2-5, 0-4) Result: Illinois 55, Indiana 13 The Hoosiers are back to being Indiana. The fall back into the cellar was complete. As bad as Purdue has played lately, Indiana has been loads worse. They just got waxed by a wildly inconsistent Illinois team that looked like it was on a completely different level. I don’t think the Hoosiers will win another game this year.

10. (9) Purdue (2-5, 0-3) Result: Northwestern 48, Purdue 26 – And we will fall to 2-6 now. Our fate was sealed today when all the major polls put Minnesota at the bottom. This is a most unexpected game to be facing a ranked team, but nothing I saw yesterday short of handing the ball to Kory Sheets 40 times will give me any confidence in beating a ranked and rest Gopher squad. Sadly, I know I am going to spend my week getting excited about having a good chance to end our streak against ranked opponents. Then I’ll go to Ross-Ade on Saturday and watch us get pantsed at our homecoming by yet another team that Tiller has historically owned. This isn’t a farewell tour, it’s a revenge tour for all the teams Joe beat repeatedly to get his record.

9. (8) Wisconsin (3-4, 0-4) Result: Iowa 38, Wisconsin 16 – It is time to question if the Badgers will even make a bowl game now. They are looking worse each week. They will still beat Indiana and Cal Poly, but where will the 6th win come from since they don’t play Purdue? They had no answer at all for Shonn Greene and Dustin Sherer, a kid I covered numerous times in high school, had a rocky first career start. I haven’t seen a nosedive like this since our own in 2005.

8. (10) Michigan (2-5, 1-2) Result: Penn State 46, Michigan 17 – Part of my hope for the rest of the year was that the bottom of the Big Ten was so bad we would have no choice but to win four games. Well, it is still bad, but Wisconsin is off the schedule and Michigan is somewhat better. For a half they were shocking everyone, but once again fell apart in the end. The Michigan State game this week will be very interesting to see how the Spartans recover and if Michigan can still own them after finally giving up ownership to Penn State.

Will be bowling for the holidays:

7. (7) Iowa (5-3, 2-2) Result: Iowa 38, Wisconsin 16 – I know I didn’t move Iowa up this week, but if there was a way to show separation in the conference it is clear that it lies between the seven and 8 spot. For those below this spot, it will take a dramatic turnaround to make the postseason. For those above it, they will eventually get enough wins to go somewhere. Shonn Greene is getting better each week. I had hoped this would be the year we got one in Iowa City, but I have my doubts now. Since we need this one or Michigan State to have a chance at going anywhere, it means we are likely done. The Illinois game this week key for bowl positioning.

6. (2) Michigan State (6-2, 3-1) Result: Ohio State 45, Michigan State 7 – This is where I can’t begin to figure things out. We go on the road and our defense plays well enough to win against the Buckeyes. Michigan State was frothing for a shot at Ohio State at home and gets shelled. Does this mean that the tickets I have for three weeks from now in East Lansing have some value? Considering my record for seeing Purdue play at other Big Ten venues, I expect an agonizing loss in my first trip up there. Michigan State has a ton of questions now because of turnovers and they are playing the quarterback shuffle for good measure. It's like Ohio State rolled htem up in a carpet and threw them in a river yesterday. Fortunately, a bad Michigan team gives them a chance to right things.

5. (6) Illinois (4-3, 2-2) Result: Illinois 55, Indiana 13 – If the Big Ten does get two into the BCS the Illini made a good audition for one of the two other New Year’s Day bowls that would be available under that scenario. Right now they can easily make it to at least Tampa if they simply stay the course and win the games they should. Iowa passes them if the Hawkeyes win a pretty good game upcoming this week.

4. (5) Northwestern (6-1, 2-1) Result: Northwestern 48, Purdue 26 – Could Northwestern be another team that ends up on New Year’s Day? The schedule is certainly favorable. With some help, much like Michigan State losing this week, the Wildcats actually control their own destiny for Pasadena. It probably won’t happen, but only the Ohio State game looks overwhelming for them. How many other teams can say they are in the same position as Northwestern? Fun stat: According to LTP, 48 points is the most Northwestern has ever scored against us.

3. (4) Minnesota (6-1, 2-1) Result: bye – This is probably a little high at this point, but again, we come to an area of clear separation in the conference. Ohio State and Penn State are out in CBS territory, and the Gophers already have a leg up on the rest with a win over Illinois. They would need some help in the form of two Ohio State losses and at least one Penn State loss, but the rest of the schedule isn’t very hard either in terms of making a run for the roses. It’s hard to believe, but the Northwestern-Minnesota game could decide a New Year’s Day bowl bid.

BCS country

1a. (3) Ohio State (7-1, 4-0) Ohio State 45, Michigan State 7 – Okay, so I was wrong in saying the Ohio State dynasty was dying last week and Michigan State would beat them. I think 10 defensive coordinators crapped themselves watching Pryor run the offense yesterday. It puts our job a week earlier in a much higher perspective. From the bottom of my heart, Terelle, please go pro after just three years. We’ll very much appreciate it.

1b. (1) Penn State (8-0, 4-0) Result: Penn State 46, Michigan 17 – Michigan State is clearly not ready, especially since that game will be in Happy Valley. That makes things simple for Penn State. Beat the Buckeyes in Columbus this week and they will finish the season undefeated and have chance at a national championship. It makes me want to break something knowing that we are the team that has come closest to beating these guys, then I saw what I saw yesterday from us against a lesser opponent. Penn State has scored 38 points or more in every game except the Purdue game. They have destroyed everything in their path to this point. That is what a championship team does.

Blogpoll ballot:

The blogpoll this week was hard once I got past the top 10. There was so much carnage in the middle to bottom of the poll that I had a hard time finding the bottom 5. I ultimately brought Oregon back after seeing them in person and decided to reward Minnesota and Arizona for good starts. As far as the top goes I have a simple rule. At this point in the season I won’t rank a 1-loss BCS team ahead of an unbeaten BCS team. They can piss and moan all they want. If they really wanted to play for the title they would have won the game they lost. In my mind only the top five have a legitimate claim at the moment by still being unbeaten. Should four of them go down, we can then discuss the merits of the one loss teams. Until such time there is no need.

I’m also well aware of moving Northwestern in and dumping Michigan State. Michigan State drops simply because they had no excuse for crapping the bed at home like that.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	--
2	Penn State	--
3	Alabama	--
4	Texas Tech	--
5	Oklahoma State	--
6	Oklahoma	1
7	Florida	1
8	Georgia	2
9	Southern Cal	--
10	Ohio State	2
11	Utah	2
12	LSU	2
13	Boise State	3
14	South Florida	4
15	Tulsa	7
16	TCU	10
17	Ball State	4
18	Brigham Young	10
19	Kansas	--
20	Missouri	9
21	Boston College	5
22	Oregon	4
23	Minnesota	3
24	Northwestern	2
25	Arizona	1

Dropped Out: Michigan State (#15), North Carolina (#17), Virginia Tech (#20), California (#23), Wake Forest (#24), Vanderbilt (#25).

Throw your hands in the air

That’s just about all I can do at this point. It seems like we fix one thing with this team and three other things go wrong. I’m not as pissed off as J Money is, but right now I am pretty disappointed. For the second straight week I wanted to take advantage of some nice weather to go hiking in Brown County. I was able to watch most of the first quarter and listen to the rest on the radio while planning tow atch the tape at home. Once again, the tape won't be watched in its entirety. When McConnell and Quinn are upset with the coaching staff you know it is bad.

Today’s game was just a microcosm of the season. One thing would go well, like a couple of opening drives points, then three things would go wrong. The defense got torched again after playing pretty stout last week, but it was hard for them to defend when they were often given very little territory to defend because Northwestern was getting the ball at the 40 or better. Even at the end Northwestern handed us an opportunity with a missed short field goal, and we promptly gave it right back.

At this point I have no idea what to do. My optimistic nature tells me not to give up. I enjoy watching Purdue football too much to give up. We were spoiled by the early years of the Tiller Era, where stunning finishes and a never quit mentality was the norm. Even as recently as 2002, when we were 4-6 facing a fourth and long with the season on the line at Michigan State we somehow found away to save a disappointing season and get to a bowl. Can it happen now? Yes. Will it happen? I doubt it. Even if we do win these final three home games we need a win at Michigan State (unlikely) or win at Iowa (even less likely wince we always play terrible there).

I said before the season that I didn’t know what to expect from this team. If we won 4 games, 10 games, or anything in between I wouldn’t be surprised. Now it looks like we might beat Michigan in a battle of two of the most inept offenses that used to be good, and we might beat Indiana. Maybe I’ll feel better if something happens next week and we shock Minnesota, but I doubt it. It feels empty, and these seniors deserve better.

I came home to watch some of the few highlights on the tape a couple of minutes ago. My frustration only mounted when I saw Kory Sheets’ 76 yard touchdown run. Here is a guy that has played his ass off all season to scratch out a running game from a pass oriented team. He is putting together one of the best seasons ever from a Purdue running back. On his run, normally a huge play, he set the ball down in the end zone and walked to the bench in frustration. He acted like he didn’t even want to be complimented as he got to the bench because he was so frustrated. It’s like he sees that all of his effort is going for nothing, yet he still pushes himself so hard. He’s having an almost Alstott-like career in that he will leave Purdue as one of its most celebrated backs ever, yet will have very few team accomplishments to go with it. It’s not even a petulant “I’m doing my job, why aren’t you?” attitude. He’s giving everything he has to this, even playing hurt, for essentially nothing.

It’s how I feel as a fan writing this blog.

Positives from the Northwestern game:

Kory Sheets – He had another 2 touchdown, 160+ yard game and we lost again. Does anyone remember the days when Purdue having a 100 yard rusher meant an automatic win because it meant we were so dominant to get to that point? We’re still that type of team. We’re still a team that should win every single time we get a 100 yard rusher because of how much we pass and how little people expect from our running game. It is not Kory’s fault we kept giving the Wildcats a short field all game long. One of the jerseys in my closet is a Sheets jersey. It’s starting to get a little worn since I’ve had it for awhile. He may be the rare player that I buy a replacement jersey for because I like him so much.

Greg Orton – Greg is another player that has to be frustrated with this season. He’s a game-changer, but we can’t seem to get him the ball. Today may have been his best game of the season as we actually went deep a few times to him.

Carson Wiggs – No offense whatsoever to Chris Summers, but Wiggs has been very impressive so far. I was thinking of something today though. Two years ago Summers struggled big time with Painter as the holder. Last year Jared Armstrong did the holding and things were fine. This year we went back to Painter and Summers struggled, then today we had another missed extra point. I haven’t seen anything obvious that Painter is doing wrong, nor am I placing blame on him. Still, it is interesting that this has happened again.

Negatives from the Northwestern game:

Field position – Northwestern had 16 possessions today. Of those, 10 began at the Wildcat 40 yard line or closer. Two more began at the NU 35 or closer. 75% of the time hey had to go 65 yards or less in order to get a score. The four possessions that didn’t start that close went punt, field goal, punt, punt. Therefore, when the defense actually had some space to defend they did pretty well. Four possessions began in Purdue territory as the result of a turnover, and those resulted in 24 points. The longest TD drive of the day was only 60 yards and that came when Peterman broke a big gain for the first NU score of the day. As the radio guys said, it’s hard to lay this one at the feet of the defense when they got zero help all day long. Of course, better tackling (again) would have helped.

Turnovers – Northwestern made some, and we made them pay for them. We made more, and boy did Northwestern make us pay for them. It’s not even that fact we had five turnovers. It is the fact that they came in the wrong part of the field and allowed an offense that has had some issues moving the ball all year to have a short field. This was by far our worst game of the year for having these issues.

Dropped passes – These sounded especially bad on the radio broadcast. We were dropping every key third down, and a couple of these turned into interceptions that probably shouldn’t have been laid on Painter. Northwestern didn’t even play a particularly clean game. We were just sloppier than they were.

Playcalling – For the love of God can we please throw downfield in the first half. If I see one more screen pass I am going to scream. Defensively, how on earth can we get a big momentum building score before the half, then allow them to march right down the field and get it back in less than a minute?

Final Thoughts:

I’m not even sure what to think now. The evidence left itself on the football field today. For the first time in the Tiller Era, we are just a bad, bad football team. This is the season that Tiller himself we were building to a few years ago, and the result is a 2-5 teams in which four of the losses weren’t even close. Even in 2005 I felt we had a pretty good offense, but the defense was abysmal and couldn’t get a stop when needed. It’s two best players, Bernard Pollard and Ray Edwards, were in it for themselves and Pollard especially felt like celebrating every tackle after a 15 yard gain like he personally won the Super Bowl. That team had one glaring weakness that prevented it from being a good team. This team has several and it is a crapshoot each game as to what will be good and what will be bad.

I don’t even know what to say anymore. You can't just lay it on one thing. At times,t he coaching has been bad. At times,t eh offense has been bad. At Times, the defense has been bad. All three have been very good for stretches, however small, as well. Today I reached the point of turning the radio off at one point when it got so laughably bad after the fumble and big return by Northwestern in the fourth quarter. The only other time I can think of giving up on a game was the 2005 Notre Dame game, when I was so pissed off I left at halftime.

I want to be hopeful for this time. I keep telling myself, “If they just do this and pull together next week, we’ll come together and get to a bowl.” Well, we have officially run out of next weeks. Even if we win the next two games, which is more than possible, we may have run out of next weeks. It is not even a home vs. road issue anymore. For four straight weeks we simply have been outclassed by our opponent in every phase of the game, save last week’s defensive performance.

I don’t even know what to think anymore.

Purdue at Northwestern open thread

I'll be watching most of the first half of this game before taking care of some other stuff this afternoon. I don't know if I'll be able to get the game wrap up by the end of the night, but I'll try. Today is the day we find out if the rest of the season is worth watching.

Comments are open.

Week 8 Big Ten preview

You could almost look at this week in the Big Ten as a moving week. The three teams in the most danger of missing the postseason all face must-win games, especially Purdue and Michigan. Both are underdogs in games against teams they have owned over the past 10 years. Since the two face each other in two weeks, a loss this week by both guarantees someone will have six losses and be on the brink of postseason elimination after that game. Indiana, the third team in that equation, desperately needs a win. In doing so, they would seriously hurt an Illinois team that saw its own postseason hopes endangered by the Minnesota loss last week.

The Iowa game against Wisconsin is also very similar. Both teams have three losses already, and a fourth loss by either would put a lot of pressure on the remainder of the season based on who each team must still play. The Ohio State at Michigan State game is different in that the winner will emerge as Penn State’s main challenger to the Big Ten title. The loser would still have a chance since Penn State would remain on the schedule, but they would need help. At this point only these three teams have a good chance at the championship, but Minnesota and Northwestern could be right there if they continue to win and there are some upsets.

Purdue (2-4, 0-2) at Northwestern (5-1, 1-1) Noon, ESPN2

Even though we’re 2-4, I feel our entire season rests on this game. Win, and we can still make a bowl game by winning all our remaining home games. Lose, and we must beat a very good Michigan State team on the road or win at Iowa for the first time since 1992 in order to play somewhere. It is not the season we had hoped it was, but as long as our effort is there that’s okay, right?

I am encouraged that Northwestern’s offense has struggled for most of the year. At 5-1 the Wildcats still have issues that most 5-1 teams don’t have. They also aren’t ranked, which at this point would automatically make me favor them because of how big of an issue our streak against ranked teams has become. We’re due, long overdue in fact, for a breakout performance by this offense. It is so much better than we have played so far. I say Kory Sheets cracks the century mark and we get a much needed win. An important thing to remember is that Bacher has thrown eight interceptions this year and we got him four times a year ago in West Lafayette. If he does that again we win by an even larger margin. Purdue 24, Northwestern 20

Wisconsin (3-3, 0-3) at Iowa (4-3, 1-2) Noon, Big Ten Network

I question whether the loser of this game will make it to bowl eligibility. Iowa still must play Penn State, Minnesota, Illinois, and Purdue who could all beat them. Wisconsin still has Illinois, Minnesota, and Michigan State as possible losses. Iowa probably needs it more, but not by much at this point. The Hawkeyes should be in a better position after losing three very close games. They have a solid running game that rolled over Indiana last week, taking the pressure off of the quarterback. The defense hasn’t been bad either. They just been a little short in all there losses.

Wisconsin seems to be regressing severely since cracking the top 10 after beating Fresno State. The Michigan loss looks awful now. The loss to Ohio state was a tough one, but the Penn State one was flat out embarrassing. Even Purdue wouldn’t have crapped the bed that badly in a nationally televised night game. Even when we did against Notre Dame in 2005 we got some second half cosmetic scores that made it look better. Iowa is still a good team at home, so I’ll give them the edge here. Iowa 17, Wisconsin 14

#12 Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) at #20 Michigan State (6-1, 3-0) 3:30pm ABC

This should be a whale of a game. If Michigan State is for real it will finish what Wisconsin couldn’t two weeks ago. Ohio State is probably lucky to be 6-1 when its not outside the realm of possibility it could be 3-4. They escaped a trap against Ohio, pulled out a last minute win at Wisconsin, and would have been in trouble last week if our offense had actually boarded the bus and went to Columbus instead of staying behind in West Lafayette. Still, there is little to complain about when they are 6-1 and in the national title discussion.

Both teams have reached this point in similar fashion. Both have a “good” loss to a very good Pac-10 team in its home stadium. Both have had some unexpected close calls in conference play with Iowa for MSU and Purdue for OSU. Both had a defensively dominated game against a lesser opponent that hung around at home (Florida Atlantic for MSU and Ohio for OSU). Both have an incredibly talented if not Heisman worthy running back that can change a game. Fans of change will want Michigan State to win after the way OSU has dominated the Big Ten in recent years. They have dominated for a reason though. They are the class of this conference until someone physically takes it from them. If it doesn’t happen this week or next week against Penn State it won’t happen his year.

Right now Michigan State’s defense is playing well while the offense is more consistent. That’s enough of an edge for me to pick them. Michigan State 20, Ohio State 13

Michigan (2-4, 1-1) at #3 Penn State (7-0, 3-0) 4:30pm ESPN

This is either going to be a bloodbath or a day of record sales of Yuengling in Central Pennsylvania. Since coming to the Big Ten Michigan has simply own Penn State. A year ago the Nittany Lions appeared poised to end their long streak of losses only to go more conservative than a Republican minister offensively in a loss in Ann Arbor. Penn State’s defense is good enough, and Michigan’s offense is bad enough, for this year to be different even if Penn State goes close to the vest again. If the Nittany Lions play like they did last year this could be the most dominant 9-0, all field goal win in history.

If Penn State is the all-dominant team they have appeared to be so far on the season they should have little trouble this week. I thought Michigan wouldn’t have any trouble last week and that was obviously not the case. The defense is actually pretty good. It has had some seriously good moments, but at this point the offense is so bad that it needs to pitch shutouts in order to have a chance. That won’t happen this week. Penn State 38, Michigan 10

Indiana (2-4, 0-3) at Illinois (3-3, 1-2) 8pm Big Ten Network

I am actually hoping that Indiana finds a way to pull this game off. As long as they lose two more games between now and the Bucket game we can make sure they don’t go to a bowl. Right now we need as much help as we can get in that department, and that means making other teams not eligible. Illinois still must play Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and they have a dangerous trip to Western Michigan. A loss here will put them in danger of missing the postseason like so many others.

Unfortunately, Indiana is playing like the Indiana of old. They can’t run the ball, their biggest offensive threat is hurt, and their defense just gave up 45 points and two 100 yard rushers to one of the most anemic offenses in the conference the past few years. Illinois has struggled with its own running game of late, but the passing game has not been a problem. If Illinois doesn’t get on track this week it has bigger issues than anyone realizes. Illinois 41, Indiana 14

Quickie National picks:

Miami (FL) 38, Duke 13 - It's absolutely ridiculous that some are picking Duke to win this game. Miami finally asserts some dominance.

#1 Texas 42, #11 Missouri 31 - Missouri's Chase Daniel reminds me a lot of Purdue when we ahd Drew Brees. This is especially true when some say Daniel won't be successful at the next level because he is only 6 feet tall. Ask Mr. Brees what he thinks about that.

#22 Vanderbilt 17, #10 Georgia 13 - Why not?

#4 Oklahoma 45, #16 Kansas 20 - A very good Oklahoma team is pissed off and will vent this week at home.

Time to pay some bills

This brief interlude is to help pay some bills here at Off the Tracks, especially since I just got some Purdue-Michigan State tickets for a few weeks from now. I may need some sunglasses on that sunny day in East Lansing. Good pais can be found at the following site, with a handy buyers guide.

Northwestern Preview

In response to my questions and answers on Tuesday with Lake the Posts, here are my answers to their questions over at LTP. Also, the guys from Boiled Sports chipped in with their own two cents. Or is it six cents since there are three of them? I don't know, my brain hurts.

Also, for what it's worth, here is this week's blogpoll. I guess it will be awhile before America realizes that our effort alone should have us in the top ten, since that is what we are measuring things by now. The only major change I had from my draft ballot was moving MIchigan State up to #15.

If Purdue is going to turn this season around and salvage something it must begin the journey Saturday afternoon in Evanston. Northwestern is our most common homecoming opponent, but the Wildcats are turning the tables on us by making the Boilers their homecoming this year. The Big Ten thinks this is a rivalry, as they join Indiana as the only opponents we are guaranteed to play every year. Joe Tiller has liked that as well. He is 9-2 against the Wildcats in his career, a mark matched only by his record against Indiana.

It’s an unfortunate stigma, but everyone in the Big Ten looks at Northwestern as a winnable game whenever schedules are released. In the past 14 seasons they have more Big Ten championships (three) than teams like Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue, but they are continually disregarded as, “just Northwestern”. Even at 5-1 this year, Purdue fans are looking at this game as a great chance to get a win and turn things around. We cannot take them for granted though. This is a good team. They are playing their homecoming game and need one more win to get bowl eligibility out of the way and dream of something bigger.

Northwestern offense

Perhaps the two biggest reasons that I have hope for a victory on Saturday lie on the Wildcats’ offensive side of the ball. C.J. Bacher hasn’t come close to putting up the senior-year numbers of his predecessors while star tailback Tyrell Sutton is battling injuries once again. Two years ago in Evanston was the one game in which Purdue was able to limit a team’s running game and make them go to the air. The results was one of our better victories in a season full of bad ones. Northwestern is only averaging a modest 24 points per game, and they haven’t faced a murderer’s row of defenses in their schedule.

Even with the injuries, Sutton is a good one. He has a 5.5 yard per game average and 603 yards on the ground for the season with five scores. They aren’t eye-popping numbers like some other backs we will face, but he is consistent enough to be a factor in every game. As Lake the Posts said earlier this week, he has done plenty of damage as a receiver (24-200-1). He is probably as versatile of a back as we will see the rest of the year in terms of running and catching the ball. He is helped out in the backfield by the capable Omar Conteh, (141 yards, 2TD) and Bacher who is mobile (139-1), but Sutton is easily the biggest running threat.

A similar defensive effort to last week should result in a win. If we can contain Sutton, or if he is not able to go as well as he has been, the Wildcats will become very one-dimensional. They have a better passing game than Ohio State, but Bacher hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard through the air. His numbers (138-236, 1325 yards) are decent, but not great. He also has a tendency to throw picks, having thrown eight against just seven touchdowns. Northwestern has been generous with the football, turning it over 11 times in six games. Since we haven’t forced a turnover in the last three games we need to take advantage of this factor.

Northwestern’s receivers are very balanced with four guys having at least 23 receptions, but none more than 29. Rasheed Ward (29-278-2) leads in total catches, but Ross Lane (28-332-0) leads in yardage. As mentioned above, Sutton is a threat to catch passes, while Eric Peterman (23-269-2) can do damage as well. The longest reception of the season is for only 45 yards, so the Wildcats lack a true deep threat much like us. The possession game can get them down the field, but this isn’t a team that hits a lot of home runs.

The real battle will come on the lines. Our own defensiveline played the game of its life last week, and if it can do it again this week we should have a good battle upfront. In Lake the Posts’ own assessment, the Northwestern offensive line has played incredibly well this year. They have given up just three sacks on the season, so Bacher should have plenty of time. If we get into the backfield as much as we did last week we have accomplished something and the Northwestern offense should sputter.

Northwestern defense:

As good as the Northwestern offensive line is at protecting the quarterback, its defense may be even better at getting to the passer. The Wildcats have racked up 19 sacks from 10 different players over the course of 10 games. They define the term “Swarming unit”. Corey Wootton is the main pass-rushing specialist with 4.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss. He easily tops the team’s list in both categories. Vince Browne (3 sacks) and Quentin Davie (2.5 sacks) are also known to cause havoc in the backfield. John Gill can also cause problems with a pair of sacks and a pair of fumble recoveries.

Safety Brad Phillips is one of the main instigators on the defense. He leads the team with 52 tackles, a sack, an interception, and a pair of pass break ups. He’s not as fearsome as Lauranaitis a week ago, but he still is someone we need to be aware of. The rest of the defense is a unit that plays very well together. Northwestern’s offense hasn’t been stellar even against weak competition, but the Wildcat defense has gotten the job done by simply allowing fewer points than the offense generates. Northwestern gives up a modest 114 yards on the ground and 201 through the air. Even last week they didn’t give up a ton of yards, but costly turnovers and special teams play hurt them badly.

All Purdue really needs to do is gain some sort of an edge against this defense, whether it comes on the ground or through the air. Northwestern is prone to turning the ball over, so we must score when it does. Though the defense is good, it’s not as good as what we have faced the last two weeks. There will be more space, and it is time for Curtis Painter to exploit that space.

Northwestern special teams:

Armando Villarreal has been a pleasant surprise for Northwestern fans, getting the Wildcats some much needed points at critical junctures. He had a four field goal game against Southern Illinois and is 11 for 13 on the season. He hasn’t had much need to kick extra points on the year, but 14 of 15. He doesn’t have a particularly big leg though, with just one attempt outside of 37 yards. Since a 37 yard field goal means the Wildcats got the ball to at least the 20, that’s an awful lot of trips to the red zone without touchdowns.

Both return games haven’t been great with no scores and only 8.3 yards per punt return and 21.6 yards per kickoff return. Northwestern can cover kicks well though, giving up just 18.3 yards per return. This is imperative as we have gotten next to nothing after Tardy gave us some big returns early on. Stefan Demos averages 38.1 yards per kick, but is pretty good at dropping them inside the 20 with 12 such punts in 29 attempts. He also has no touchbacks, so if Northwestern stalls at midfield we had better be prepared to dig our way out of a deep hole. Punting was an issue last week as a big return set up Michigan State's first score.

Final thoughts:

We need this game. Now is the time for us to go into must-win mode, because getting to the postseason from 3-4 is a lot easier than getting there from 2-5. Northwestern is a good team. They have plenty to play for on their own schedule as they can still be 8-1 before a difficult finishing kick. With just a little bit of help, they can be right there for the Big Ten title and at least have their own say at home against Ohio State.

That said, the offense is clearly struggling a little bit with a less than healthy Tyrell Sutton and a subpar C.J. Bacher. When Northwestern has had success offensively it has gotten above-average quarterback play and has had a dangerous running back that can both run and catch the ball. Both are doing what they need to do, but not as effectively as past Northwestern greats when the offense has been phenomenal.

In my conversation with Lake the Posts earlier this week he talked about how special teams, turnovers, and field position were major issues against Michigan State. The Wildcats outgained the Spartans by more than 160 yards, but a big punt return, a fumble on a kickoff, and an inability to turn red zone opportunities into touchdown made a huge difference. These issues were not new to the Michigan State game just because the Spartans were the first good opponent Northwestern has faced. We must take advantage of this.

That is really the key to Saturday. Northwestern is the first team we have faced since Notre Dame that has major issues. The Irish couldn’t run the ball, but the fact that our run defense quit on us allowed them to overcome that issue for one game. If Northwestern is unable to overcome its issues, like the Irish did, I like our chances. Central Michigan’s major issue was pass defense. It overcame that issue, and it nearly cost us the game. It is unfortunate at this point that we must rely on another team’s screwups in order to win, but I’ll take a win however we can get it.

Offensively, we have to take care of the ball, protect Painter, get Kory Sheets some space to run, and score points if we can get close. Defensively the Northwestern offensive line has had trouble opening running lanes, so we must make sure they continue to have trouble. If we can get to the quarterback and sack Bacher once we’re already doing better than most anyone has done against the Wildcats all year. They are having issues with their playcalling as well, and the deep receiving threat is a myth for them. I don’t want to say we should sit back and wait for them to make mistakes, but the mistakes will come if Northwestern continues to play as it has all year. If we contain Sutton (by contain I mean keep below 100 yards) and not allow the deep ball, we should be able to frustrate their offense.

Finally, we need better play from Painter. Curtis, stop screwing around and play like you’re supposed to be able to play. Since this isn’t a “big game” he may relax and finally have a breakout. We have to have him lead touchdown drives if we are going to win. In my mind, this is his last chance. If he can’t get the offense going Saturday and get some point it is Joey Elliott time.

Called out

It appears that I or my colleagues over at Boiled Sports have raised the collective ire of coach Joe Tiller. I wanted to touch on this briefly before getting to the Northwestern preview, but the following article was brought to my attention when prowling the GBI boards today. The basis of it is the following quote:

"I think we could be 4-2," Purdue coach Joe Tiller said Tuesday. "I'm not sure, based on the team that we have right now, that we could be 6-0. I hesitate to say that because some blogger will say, well, he doesn't believe they can win, which indicates IQ to me, or lack thereof.”

I ask, why aren’t you sure we could be 6-0. We’re currently 2-4, let’s look at what would have needed to happen in order to be 6-0:

Against Oregon – Any number of plays could have changed the outcome. If Brandon King doesn’t get tackled from behind we go up 14-0 instead of 10-0 when we managed only a field goal. If we run out the clock at the end of the half we go in 20-3 instead of 20-6 after a bad interception led to an Oregon field goal. Either of these would have made Summers’ kick at the end moot. Then there is Summers’ kick and Painter not finding a wide open Sheets in the first overtime. This is easily in the four column of Joe’s 4-2.

Against Notre Dame – Mike Neal’s quote says it all:

"When you come out flat and you're not ready to play a football game and you look bored at halftime, what do you expect?" Neal said. "Then you have a lot of guys after you go through a first series like that, and they run the ball down your throat and you get to the sideline and look into everybody's faces, and they don't look interested in playing a football game. That has to be another part of why they continued to do it the whole third quarter."

You think some coaching, encouragement, hell, even some in-game adjustments might have made a difference? How about the fact that San Diego State, one of the worst teams in the country, had little trouble stopping the Notre Dame running game? If we can stop Beanie Wells like we did last week, we can stop Notre Dame. The defense quit, and that is the fault of the coaching staff.

Against Penn State – I’ll give this one to Joe, barely. The game plan against the Lions was pretty good. We slowed them down with a defense that looked much better a week later. Unfortunately, some poor execution on special teams and a bad snap at the worst time cost us a chance at a win. Give us a touchdown on that drive, a made field goal on the other miss, and a made extra point and we still lose, but we at least have a shot at the end.

Against Ohio State – Sorry, but I can’t help but feel we let one get away. The defense played out of its mind, but the offense was a huge disappointment. Coach Tiller has made the offense the focal point of his teams for his entire career. With the experience we had there is no excuse, no matter who we are playing, to get our only scoring from a school record long field goal. To me, if we hold a team to 20 points or less there is no reason we shouldn’t have a chance to win at the end. If the offense and the player we have at quarterback were as good as advertised in the preseason I certainly think we could have won the last two games.

I have been a Purdue fan for a very long time. I came to my first game in 1987 when I was just 8 years old. I had season tickets with my parents every year since then. I was in Pasadena on January 1, 2001, and I have traveled to see Purdue play ten different teams in six different states from Ohio to Hawaii. I know coach Tiller cares very much about whether this team wins or loses. I can’t help but see some of his quotes in recent years, however, and think that he has at least lost some, but not all of his passion. I have watched nearly every game of the Tiller era and it is clear to me that he is not the same coach as he was in 1997. That’s not a lack of IQ, that’s straight observation. I know many other fans like me would agree.

Coach Tiller famously came out and voiced his displeasure at having to go to Hawaii two years ago. My Boiled Sports buddies have even better quotes in their story linked above concerning old Joe vs. new Joe. The quote about effort is very telling. The effort wasn’t there at Notre Dame, and we lost by 17. We had a much better effort at Ohio State, and lost by 13. Apparently better effort is only worth four points. As long as that effort is there we’re much better, right?

I appreciate everything Joe has done for this program. This very site that I enjoy is a byproduct of that. It is safe to say that if it wasn’t for Joe Tiller, there would be very little of Purdue football for me to write about. I did expect better from his final season though. I expected him to go out guns blazing as we threw everything we had at a title in what he personally said was a season we were building to as a big one. Part of it is on poor execution by the players themselves in spots. Part of it has been on the coaching staff, of which he, as the head coach, is ultimately responsible.

I am not going to sweat this though. Part of being the media, whether he recognizes bloggers as part of the media or not (and that is a different argument for a different time) is that we ask questions and hold people accountable. Someone needs to be held accountable for what has happened on the field win or lose, and Tiller, again as head coach, is at the top of what currently is a long list.

Blog takeover: Lake the Posts

This is a first for the Big Ten season, but the noted Big Ten blog Lake the Posts contacted me this week with some questions about the Boilers this week, so I responded in turn with some of my own. Those answers should be up either late tonight or early tomorrow over at LTP. Since there appears to be no Big Ten bloggers' roundtable this week and I am covering a game on Friday night, we get an all Northwestern week.

Before we get to the questions though, I wanted to post an opportunity out there for you Boiler fans. Thanks to a little extra income at the moment, I was able to secure some Purdue basketball tickets for the coming season. Because of time and other constraints, I can't go to all of them. I basically did it so I could pick up the games I really wanted to go to (i.e. Duke, Indiana, etc.), and a couple of others. Essentially, I am making the majority of my seats available if anyone is interested. Since most of the season is going to be sold out I am listing them on Ebay, but I am not marking them up as much as other auctions I have seen. The following are the games I have listed. Each has a Buy It Now but the regular auctions start at 99 cents.

Florida Southern

Northern State

Detroit Mercy

Eastern Michigan (NIT round one)

Georgia/Loyola-Chicago (NIT Round two)

Coppin State

Arkansas Pine Bluff

Indiana State

IPFW

Valparaiso

Illinois

Michigan

Penn State

Ohio State

Northwestern

Ideally, I want to give these seats up to other Purdue fans, so if you contact me with a decent offer via e-mail I can take down the listing for that game and work something out. Based on what I paid for similar seats for the Northwestern game last year, the tickets have a face value of about $54 per pair per game. According to GBI, they are about 1,000 tickets from selling out the place for the entire season, so there won't be a ton available through Purdue.

I am keeping both Duke and Indiana, so don't ask (I have to have some perks, after all!). If you're interested in Wisconsin or Michigan State though I might be willing to work something out and just take down another game. Again, just feel free to e-mail me and we'll talk.

Lake the Posts takeover

Off the Tracks: Northwestern has lived and died by the spread almost as much as Purdue has, but this year the defense seems to be setting the tone. How concerned are you that they struggled in their first big test of the season last week?

Lake the Posts: If you're implying the defense struggled then you may want to think again. The fact we gave up 37 points is really not a reflection of poor defense, but rather an absolute implosion by our special teams and several key turnovers in our end of the field. Consider this: here are the starting field positions for Michigan State's scoring drives with how they got there in parenthesis. The point is our "D" is legitimate, but our offense is sputtering to say the least. When you lose the field position battle this badly and 3-0 in turnover margin, you lose. Yes our scoring defense marks took a major hit, but this one is on everyone but the "D"

NU 42 - (MSU punt return to 50 leads to 7-0)
NU 25 - (NU fumbles kickoff, MSU FG 10-0)
NU 35 (Bacher throws terrible ball for INT, leads to MSU TD 17-0)
2nd Half
NU 32 (After NU scores to cut it to 24-14, 2 penalties on onside kick
then lead to MSU TD 31-14)

Ugggggggly.

OTT: Do you see Purdue being able to slow down Tyrell Sutton ala Beanie Wells last week, or will he go Armando Allen on us.

LTP: Sutton got dinged in week 4 and sat the second half of the Ohio game. He is clearly not 100%, yet has played like a warrior. He has been a huge part of the offense as he is getting a lot of touches as a receiver, but obviously his rushing production is down. The O-line has been nothing short of phenomenal (our big question mark going into the season) in pass protection, but less then spectacular from an 'opening of holes for Sutton' standpoint. I'm expecting a big game from him, yet your rushing defense has been schizophrenic - either really on (see Ohio State) or really off (see Oregon) (ed. note: It wasn't bad in the first half against Oregon, the more telling is Notre Dame where we turned a team that couldn't gain 2 yards if they fell forward from the line of scrimmage into Navy). So I'm not sure.

OTT: Through six games against lesser competition you had to expect better numbers from Bacher? Do you view him as in a similar funk to Painter? Can he bust out Saturday?

LTP: Bacher has been an enigma, but the Wildcat fandom is starting to squeal about OC Mick McCall. McCall came from Bowling Green this year with all the hype about being a QB guy (Ed. Note: If he was there in 2003 we know all about him). Well, Bacher has gone from Jesse James to game manager, but the 30-yard passes across the field for 3 yard gains are starting to get old. Bacher still makes poor decisions, yet shows flashes of complete rhythm.

The offense has been an unequivocal disappointment to date. If not for the 180-turnaround by Mike Hankwitz with our "D", we'd be 3-3. I can't explain it. ESPN2 commentator Ray Bentley hit the nail on the head by analyzing the inability for us to throw 10+ yards which is essential to opening up our short slant and screen games. A funk, yes. Don't know if he'll snap out of it though.

OTT: Historically Tiller has done very well against Northwestern, with only the windy 2004 game and our own 2005 debacle as blemishes. What is your reasoning behind this?

LTP: Amazing isn't it? The only team we have a losing record against since 1995 in conference aside from the "big three" of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State is Purdue. I can give you two reasons. Drew Brees and Vinny Sutherland. I still haven't recovered from the 99 yard game winning TD that year. (Ed. note: my sophomore year, what a play!)

OTT: Finally, how do you see Purdue's offense moving the ball against your defense after struggling the last two weeks?

I love our pass rush. We've racked up more sacks already then all of last year. I'm more concerned about Kory Sheets than the pass offense as we can tee-up on passing so it seems. Despite Painter's funk, he is an incredible talent, but amazingly we have confidence in our "D". Don't have confidence we won't mess up on special teams or turn it over, but feel pretty good about our "D".

Week 7 Big Ten wrap with blogpoll

Yesterday was frustrating in more ways than one for Purdue fans. It was such a topsy-turvy day in the Big Ten that we were the only visiting team to a Big Ten Stadium that did not walk away with a victory. Now we find ourselves with the difficult, but not impossible, task of needing to win four of our last six games so we might sneak back to Detroit for the Motor City Bowl. At least we're past the hardest part of our schedule now. Before we get to the blogpoll ballot, let's rank the Big Ten again. Since we're at the midway point or further, we can also talk about bowl chances for each team as well.

11. (11) Indiana (2-4, 0-3) Result: Iowa 45, Indiana 9 – The Hoosier Report summed things up best on Saturday night in calling the loss to Iowa a season-ender. Though they currently sit at 2-4, the Hoosiers haven't been nearly as competitive as Purdue, nor does it look like they will be able to pull off four more wins on the season with Illinois, Wisconsin, and Penn State remaining. They are 2-4 after the easiest part of their schedule, while we are 2-4 after the hardest part.

Indiana's offense is stagnant and one-dimensional, while the defense cannot stop anyone. That is a recipe for failure. There is no running game to speak of. Opposing teams haven't had trouble either, especially since Shonn Greene and Indiana native Jewel Hampton both ran for more than 100 yards yesterday. At this point, Indiana will be lucky to win another game.

10. (8) Michigan (2-4, 1-1) Result: Toledo 13, Michigan 10 – The last time Michigan did not play in a bowl game was after the 1974 season. The only reason they missed a game that year was because it was the final season that the Big Ten allowed only its champion to play in a post-season game. Michigan has been a postseason regular for 33 consecutive seasons since. After losing to a godawful Toledo team yesterday, their first ever loss to a MAC quad, the streak is now in serious jeopardy.

The only Game that Matters joins the Hoosier Report and me from two weeks ago in saying that the sky is falling for our respective programs. Should the Big Ten indeed get both Penn State and Ohio State into the BCS it looks like Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan will be the three left at home at the moment. Sadly, Michigan's streak is the longest in the country, and three more losses would hand that honor over to Florida State, who will likely play in their 27^th straight bowl.

9. (10) Purdue (2-4, 0-2) Result: Ohio State 16, Purdue 3 – Perhaps I am just overly delusional at this point. Michigan got the 10 spot because it has at least shown a pretty good defense even if its offense couldn't score in a women's prison with a fistful of pardons. Purdue is playing better at the moment, but that means very little.

I outlined our own bowl hopes yesterday, so there is no need to go over them again. If the Boilers can get a game in Evanston this weekend, things will likely calm down, at least somewhat, in West Lafayette. If not, I still think there is hope for next year. It's not going to be as bad as it seems, even if the GBI boards are in full meltdown mode.

8. (5) Wisconsin (3-3, 0-3) Result: Penn State 48, Wisconsin 7 – Three weeks ago I thought Wisconsin had a chance at the national championship. Now they may not even make a bowl game at this rate. Illinois and Michigan State are more than capable of beating the Badgers. If that happens, Wisconsin has little margin for error next week against Iowa or in the Big Ten finale against Minnesota.

The Badgers should be embarrassed with the crap game it turned in Saturday night at home. Penn State only outgained them by less than 70 yards, but did so much more with the ball when they had it. It is honestly hard to see where this one got away except for the punt return by Derrick Williams. The Iowa game this week will be important for both teams.

7. (9) Iowa (4-3, 1-2) Result: Iowa 45, Indiana 9 –After the past two seasons Saturday's win over Indiana had to be pretty sweet. Indiana had embarrassed them on consecutive occasions, but the Hawkeyes turned the tables. Now a bowl game looks like a better possibility, especially if they can take advantage of a down Wisconsin team this week. I'd give the edge to the Badgers, but the Purdue-Iowa game on November 15^th could be an elimination game.

Iowa had a dual-headed running game from Hampton and Greene yesterday, but they have to get better play from the quarterback position if they are going to get the mandatory two wins needed. Andy Brodell did make the Hoosiers look silly though. As far as bowl hopes, they would get a huge boost by beating Wisconsin and hurting the Badgers even further.

6. (3) Illinois (3-3, 1-2) Result: Minnesota 27, Illinois 20 – After yesterday, my original comparison of Illinois this year to Purdue of 2002 look even better. Illinois can play with any team in the country, but they can lose to just about anyone as well. They are no longer a lock for a bowl game either with Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Northwestern left on the schedule. All three of those could easily be losses, and a dangerous trip to a pretty good Western Michigan team in November could trip them up. Just ask Iowa about November games against the Broncos. They need to take that seriously, unlike yesterday.

It is clear that Illinois needs a better running game. Minnesota never had to worry about it yesterday and sacked Juice Williams five times. It may have been the most wasted 462 yard performance since Brady Quinn threw for 400+ against Purdue in 2004.

5. (6) Northwestern (5-1, 1-1) Result: Michigan State 37, Northwestern 20 – I was actually a little disappointed that Northwestern lost yesterday, because a win would have given us a bonus chance at knocking off a ranked team. Sometimes college football is all about matchups. I feel we match up well with them, and I liked our chances had they been ranked to find a cheap way of ending our streak. Sadly, our only chance remaining will come at Michigan State, and it is not a good one. Northwestern will still get one more win for a bowl bid.

Tyrell Sutton is yet another impressive back we must contain his week. He went for 139 yards against a pretty good defense, but like Illinois on the day, Northwestern had finishing issues. Both teams from the state to the west of us grossly outgained their opponents while playing at home, yet it was the opponent that walked away with a win. We will need to be as efficient as Michigan State to get the win. They are disappointed, so we must take advantage.

4. (7) Minnesota (6-1, 2-1) Result: Minnesota 27, Illinois – Everything from this point forward is gravy. Minnesota will be playing somewhere in the postseason even if they collapse and lose the last five games. That isn't likely going to happen if they continue to play balanced, smart football. They get a week off to prepare for us, and they still have a weak Michigan team left.

Minnesota is not turning the ball over, moving it well, and now has a pretty good pass rush in order to cause disruptions with a much improved defense. The only cause for concern is the fact that the passing game is grossly skewed towards Eric Decker. He has almost half of the passing game's production. If we can slow him down in two weeks out chances at winning will greatly improve.

3. (2) Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) Result: Ohio State 16, Purdue 3 – I don't know if our defense played out of its minds or if Ohio State is just struggling right now, but I cannot believe we held one of the best backs in the country below 100 yards when we couldn't stop the worst rushing team in the country last year just two weeks ago. The Buckeye Battle Cry thinks they held back. Ohio State is too one-dimensional, but if they show up in East Lansing like they did in Madison they will be fine.

It is now a two game season for them. If they win the next two weeks they will clear their two largest hurdles for the Big Ten title. Northwestern and Illinois could be dangerous, but in reality Michigan State and Penn State are all that remain. If they don't get more of a passing game they will lose both.

2. (4) Michigan State (6-1, 3-0) Result: Michigan State 37, Northwestern 20 – This is the week we find out if Michigan State is real. If they can knock off Ohio State they will put themselves in line for a very special season. It would mean a potential season finally in Happy Valley where an unbeaten Penn State could end up losing the Rose Bowl to a one loss Michigan State team. I think the Spartans are that good.

Even the Cal loss isn't looking that bad at this point, as explained by the Spartan's Weblog. The more that Michigan State can prove it doesn't need Javon Ringer to go apeshit on teams to win the better. I actually like his chances after our own Kory Sheets had a decent game against a normally stout Buckeye run defense.

1. (1) Penn State (7-0, 3-0) Result: Penn State 48, Wisconsin 7 – It's not a gay thing, it's a dominance thing. Penn State raped and pillaged Madison on Saturday night, and now they have moved into the top 3 nationally. They are now the conference's only hope to win a national championship this season. Best of all, they will likely get there if they patiently take care of business. The odds are good that someone ahead of them will fall before the end of the season, especially since Texas still has games against Texas Tech, Missouri, and Oklahoma State.

Unfortunately, Penn State still must go to Ohio State where it has constantly struggled. Not only that, a season ending game against a very good Michigan State team could be trouble. That said, they have manhandled everyone so far in getting to 7-0. They are here at #1 until someone physically takes it from them. Your turn, Michigan.

CBS Sports Blogpoll ballot:

I was hoping that Missouri would have pulled off last night's game with Oklahoma State in order to immediately reward us with a #1 vs. #2 matchup this coming week. Instead, the Longhorns take my top spot. I also leapfrogged Penn State to #2 simply because of conference loyalty, Alabama not playing, and irrational dislike of Nick Saban. Ball State keeps on moving up at the bottom, and i think it will be interesting to see where BYU ends up playing if unbeaten teams from BCS conferences continue to fall. As usual, feel free to critique the draft ballot before Wednesday's final goes up.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	3
2	Penn State	4
3	Alabama	1
4	Texas Tech	3
5	Oklahoma State	12
6	Florida	5
7	Oklahoma	6
8	Brigham Young	2
9	Southern Cal	--
10	Georgia	2
11	Missouri	6
12	Ohio State	2
13	Utah	1
14	LSU	11
15	Boise State	--
16	North Carolina	9
17	South Florida	3
18	Kansas	3
19	Michigan State	3
20	Virginia Tech	1
21	Ball State	1
22	Tulsa	4
23	California	3
24	Wake Forest	2
25	Vanderbilt	12

Dropped Out: Auburn (#18), Wisconsin (#23), Northwestern (#24).

Halfway home

As Purdue reached the midpoint in its season today I have mixed emotions. They are exactly where I predicted they would be according to my Know thy Opponent previews over the summer. I predicted a 2-4 first half with the only wins coming over Central Michigan and Northern Colorado. It feels like it should be more. I think we honestly felt like we would get better quarterback play to this point. That better play likely have us at 4-2 or maybe 6-0 in a dream world. I will admit that since the defense quit on us, the Notre Dame loss would likely have happened regardless. Painter’s numbers have been way down from the past, but that is far from the only reason we are now 2-4.

What is frustrating is that there have been enough encouraging signs to feel like we can be so much better. After quitting against Notre Dame’s poor running attack, our defense held one of the best running backs in the country below 100 yards today. Had they played like they did against Notre Dame, Wells would have had 300 yards and 4 TD’s today easily. It seems like once we fix one thing, something else goes wrong. Against Notre Dame we actually had Curtis Painter become the mad bomber, moving the ball well. That should have been enough for a win, but the defense simply quit in the second half for no reason whatsoever.

Today’s game was surprisingly winnable. The defense played the type of game we have needed in order to beat a ranked foe. They really did last week too. To me, if we’re such an offensive-oriented team, we should win every game in which our defense holds a team to 20 points or fewer. That’s a reasonable expectation for the types of offenses we have had. Instead, we have scored 9 points with allegedly one of the best senior quarterbacks in the nation that past two weeks. Six of those points came with him getting splinters in his butt on the bench.

So where do we go from here? There was enough effort and passion on defense to see today that a bowl game is still salvageable this season. In fact, of all six remaining games there is not one I can point to as a guaranteed loss. The game at Michigan State is the closest one to that category. All we need to do is hold serve at home against three teams we should beat (ironically with Minnesota as the toughest) and steal one on the road. At this point any bowl game would be a win for the season, even Detroit again. It would also allow Tiller and Painter, whose legends are certainly tarnished, to save at least a little face at the end of their careers.

Positives from the Ohio State game:

The Defense – If these guys can replicate this effort the rest of the year it will pay dividends. 222 yards is what we normally give up in a half. Even in giving up just 20 points last week we surrendered well over 400 yards. Today we allowed next to nothing in the passing game and held two very good running players in check. It’s a shame the offense decided not to show up and we handed them seven points on the blocked punt. If you take that away, give Purdue a field goal attempt after the Painter fumble, and give Wiggs a make at the end of the first half we’re in a position to win a 9-9 game at the end. I know that’s a lot of ifs, but for once those ifs don’t fault our defense one bit.

The defense gave us a chance to win. Even six of the nine points it did give up were the result of a short field after turnovers. It was actually the best effort of the season and one of the best in years. Their performance today gives me at least a little hope for the rest of the season. All we can ask is that they give us a chance to win, and they did that today. At this point I will take what I can get.

Carson Wiggs – I have long been a supporter of Chris Summers even in his struggles, but it is clear that Wiggs is something special. Just imagine what he can do if we ever give him an attempt closer than 50 yards. I think it also helped Summers with his punting a little. If having two specialists helps this team the rest of the year I am all for it. In Wiggs, the kid only broke the school record for longest field goal ever.

Kory Sheets – For the second week in a row Kory gained some tough yards when we needed them. I know 59 and 67 yards in consecutive games isn’t much, but we must consider our history. These were the two best defenses we will face all year. They are the types of defenses that we normally struggle to get anything on the ground and completely abandon the running game against. In previous years, Kory might have had 40 yards in the last two games combined. Things get easier from here on out, and I expect Kory to thrive.

Sheets even had the best quote after the game. "The game evolves every day and our offense has to evolve and change with it before we get left behind in the dust and don't win any more games," he said. Well said, Mr. Sheets. Well said. This is yet another area where we show flashes of imagination once or twice per game, but almost seem afraid to do anything else.

Negatives from the Ohio State game:

Curtis Painter – I have tried to give Curtis the benefit of the doubt in this forum before. He has put up very good numbers, but it seems as if he hasn’t improved one bit. When I did the Best Wins of the Tiller Era series this summer I mentioned how Drew Brees had a certain air about him on the field. When he stepped out there you felt we had a chance in every single game even if he struggled. Kyle Orton, and even Brandon Kirsch had that to some extent, but not as much as Brees. With Painter, I have never felt that.

Curtis is a good kid. I can tell he is struggling this year to make throws that he has made in the past. I don’t know if the pressure of preseason expectations has gotten to him or what, but at this point we have little reason to hope he can give us that extra edge when it is specifically needed form his position. By that I mean when all things are equal and all other positions are playing equal, we get a boost because of who he is. For us to win right now we need Painter to simply be painter and get something exceptional elsewhere. He has never been that exceptional except in last year’s Motor City Bowl.

Fortunately for him we don’t have another overwhelming opponent left on the schedule. Northwestern is good, but it is hardly intimidating as a road venue. Minnesota officially scares me now, but it is a game we can win at home. With the way Michigan’s offense is playing right now, we need about a C- game from Curtis to beat the Wolverines at home. Michigan State will be tough, but I know we are capable of beating Iowa and Indiana is back to being Indiana. It is my hope that Curtis can pull it together against the subpar and get us to the postseason. I would still give Joey Elliott a long look if he struggles at all next week.

Punt protection – I probably put way too much on Curtis above, especially when such a mundane type of play made such a huge difference. Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins even admitted they don’t rush the punter very often, yet we handed them 7 points. I’m not sure if Summers hesitated slightly when he rotated the ball to kick, but it shouldn’t have mattered. This is another case of one minor mistake making a huge difference. Without that mistake we’re down 9-3 with a chance to win it with a touchdown at the end.

Final thoughts:

I ended the above section early because there really weren’t a lot of glaring negatives. Whenever the offense struggles the bulk of the blame will be placed on the quarterback. Despite the lack of negatives, there weren’t a huge amount of positives outside of the defense. Ohio State admittedly did not play its best game. Good teams know how to win when that happens though.

When I did the Big Ten preview yesterday I mentioned how I felt we would need an effort not seen yet in order to win. We got that, but it still wasn’t enough. Maybe I am overly optimistic in thinking we can still salvage something out of this season when the other four loss teams in the conference are declaring it over, but isn’t it my job as fan to think that way until something salvageable isn’t mathematically possible? I was that way in 2005 until late in the fourth quarter of loss #6 (at Penn State), so I will be there year until loss #7 is unavoidable.

The Northwestern game is huge now. A win in Evanston, a place that I know we can win at, would seriously turn things around. Say what you will about Tiller, but the only time we have ever had a four game or longer losing streak under him is the disastrous 2005 season. Winning in Evanston Saturday would avoid that and set the stage for a bowl game if we can just win our remaining home games.

Of course, in that scenario of a minimum six wins we need some help from the rest of the conference. Without a second BCS bid, we would need four teams with at least seven losses to assure a postseason bid. Michigan and Indiana appear to be well on their way to fulfilling two of those slots, and we control our in being able to help them get there. Iowa is another likely candidate, but not a guarantee after today. That leaves Illinois and surprisingly Wisconsin there after the finish getting rocked at home tonight. Both should still get bowl eligible, possibly still leaving us out in the cold. With that in mind, here are the things that need to happen in order for us to make a bowl game.

First, the Big Ten needs two BCS-worthy teams to move the open bowl bids from 7 to 8. Our best bet is Penn State continuing to crack skulls open and for Ohio State to sneak into one at 10-2 (with a loss to Penn State). Both finishing 11-1 would probably work too.

Second, we have to win four more games to get to at least 6-6. Based on the way things look now, we absolutely nave to beat Indiana and Michigan at home. We need to hold serve at home against Minnesota for homecoming. Our best bet for a road win is Iowa, then Northwestern. I believe we can get both, and to be safer we had better get both. Michigan State is a pipe dream, but a last shot at a ranked team for now. That will be my Big Ten road trip this year unless I decide to go to Northwestern at the last moment.

Third, we need three other Big Ten teams to reach the 7 loss plateau. Indiana and Michigan are well on their way. Iowa appears to be the most likely to be a third with an angry Wisconsin, at Illinois, and Penn State the next three games. That would mean the Purdue-Iowa game could be a lot like the 2002 Purdue-Michigan State game in terms of it being a bowl elimination game. Illinois has to feel like it is in some danger now too, but we don’t have say in that like we do with Iowa.

I feel like Jimmy V. when I say this, especially after I declared the season over after losing to another piss-poor Notre Dame team two weeks ago, but we can’t give up. Don’t ever give up.

Week 7 big Ten preview

In response to my Ohio state preview yesterday several of our noted Oho State blogs have done previews of Saturday’s game. Here is the list of active previews if anyone is interested.

Eleven Warriors worked with my friends over at Boiled Sports on Purdue's keys to victory. His real preview, which is very good by the way, was posted this morning.

The Buckeye Blog is calling our game a practice game.

Our Honor Defend chooses to rub in Holy Buckeye one more time with a first person tale of what they were doing during the play.

J Money at Boiled Sports rightfully rips Joe Tiller for "hoping we figure things out".

As you can see, Buckeye fans aren't exactly quaking in fear at our arrival Saturday. Who can blame them. We're a 19 point underdog. We're not even confident in ourselves anymore.

This week as a whole is an important one in terms of the conference race. The winner between Northwestern and Michigan State can actually claim they have a shot at the title, especially since Northwestern does not play Penn State. Penn State’s own chances at the national title rest on a trip to Madison. Minnesota visits Illinois in an intriguing game, while one team’s bowl hopes will likely end when Iowa visits Indiana. Both teams have too many likely losses left to give the loser serious consideration for the postseason.

Purdue (2-3, 0-1) at #12 Ohio State (5-1, 2-0) 3:30pm ABC and ESPN

At least the last time we were on ABC we played Oregon tight in the latest of a series of gut-wrenching losses. We need that same team to show up in Columbus on Saturday with fewer mistakes. GBI has officially given up on the season by predicting a four touchdown loss. I am encouraged by the fact that Minnesota went into Columbus two weeks ago and played fairly well in a 34-21 loss. Ultimately this comes down to attitude. If this team goes in expecting to lose we might as well not even show up.

A win would be shocking. There is little doubt about that. Ohio State hasn’t been overly impressive so far, but it has gotten he job done except at USC. The defense doesn’t seem to be as stout as a year ago, but it is still very, very good. If we can keep the offense from rolling early like we did against Penn State a week ago we might have a chance. I know the real pivotal game is next week in Evanston. It’s a game we can get and probably have to get in order to play somewhere in December. This week we can win, but it will take an effort we haven’t seen yet. That means it is probably misguided optimism. Ohio State 24, Purdue 7

Toledo (1-4) at Michigan (2-2) Noon, Big Ten Network

Michigan is officially on notice. Losing to App. State last year is one thing. The Mountaineers are actually a really good team. Losing to Toledo, who has already dropped a game to lowly Florida International (one of the worst teams in the country) would be worse. For one afternoon at least, Michigan gets a breather. Michigan 34, Toledo 6

Iowa (3-3, 0-2) at Indiana (2-3, 0-2) Noon, Big Ten Network

The loser of this game has the dubious distinction of seeing a once promising season end up in the Big Ten’s basement at the halfway point. If Wisconsin gets off the mat and upsets Penn State the loser will be all alone down there, too. Neither team has beaten anyone yet, but at least Iowa has been close the last three weeks. The Hawkeyes actually aren’t that far from being 6-0 right now. Indiana can’t even come close to saying that. Both Michigan State and Ball State are very good teams, but the Hoosiers had to be thinking win in Minneapolis last week. Instead, they got very little all day against a defense that was awful a year ago.

Clearly, both teams need this game badly. The Hoosiers probably need it a little more because they cannot afford to drop a third straight home game in a schedule that was ready made for a bowl appearance. If they can’t win this one they may not win at home the rest of the way. Of course, they have owned Iowa the last two years. As a Purdue fan, I am counting on beating both and grabbing two wins somewhere else to try and salvage this season some. In that case, I think I might actually prefer that Indiana wins so Iowa has less to play for when we get them. Iowa is the better team at the moment though. Iowa 24, Indiana 20

Minnesota (5-1, 1-1) at Illinois (3-2, 1-1) Noon, ESPN

This game is very intriguing. Minnesota is an unexpected team that could join the Michigan State-Northwestern winner, Penn State, and Ohio State as bowl eligible. They would also give themselves a very nice win in terms of positioning for that bowl. The offense wasn’t overwhelming against the Hoosiers last week, but the defense was one big play given up away from a shutout. The Gophers will almost undoubtedly find their way to a sixth win and a bowl this year. That’s a good sign for what Tim Brewster is doing in Minneapolis. Our homecoming is far from a guaranteed win.

Illinois is a team in search of a good win as well. Michigan reverted to its normal 2008 form last week. Eastern Illinois and Louisiana-Lafayette aren’t good. I did like what I saw though in the loss at Penn State. Illinois refuses to quit when it gets behind. They can’t quite make the one big play or stop they need, but they are close. The offense can do some special things, but can bog down as well. The defense could use some help, especially against good offenses. I think they’ll beat Minnesota, but it will be a good test. Illinois 27, Minnesota 21

Northwestern (5-0, 1-0) at #23 Michigan State (5-1, 2-0) 3:30pm, ESPN2

This should be a fantastic game from two teams that have played some classics in recent years. Lake the Posts constantly rants on the disrespect that Michigan State fans give Northwestern. They still believe any loss to the Wildcats is a bad one. Two years ago it was Northwestern that had the bad loss in an absolute collapse against the Spartans in Evanston. This time around Northwestern is much better, and a win means they can dream of an outside chance at a Big Ten championship. This could also be Michigan State’s toughest roadie until they finish in Happy Valley.

The Spartans were lucky to escape against Iowa last week. Northwestern’s run defense has been pretty good, but it hasn’t faced anyone nearly as good as Javon Ringer. The closest is Iowa’s Shonn Greene, who went for 159 yards and a score in Northwestern’s last game. If Ringer goes nuts I expect the Spartans to in, but if Northwestern can stop him they will be 6-0 and we’ll likely get another shot at a ranked team next week. Because of that, Northwestern can seriously dream of 9-0 with a win Saturday. Northwestern 20, Michigan State 19

#6 Penn State (6-0, 2-0) at Wisconsin (4-2, 0-2) 8pm, ESPN

Wisconsin fans are pretty desperate if they are blaming the fact that Wisconsin’s band is currently suspended for the reason they lost at Ohio State. Unless the band is hiding a deceptively fast trombone player that could have tackled Terelle Pryor on that cut it wouldn’t have made a difference. It will be back, so no worries this week. Two weeks ago Wisconsin was dreaming of a BCS bid. If they lose this week a New Year’s Day bowl may become difficult to salvage. Illinois and Michigan State still remain on the slate, so a winning conference record may even be difficult.

Penn State really impressed me last week. Though it was a two score game or less most of the way, you had the feeling that they were always in control. Even in getting shut out the first 20 minutes Penn State was never worried. Some are giving credit to our defense for slowing them down, but the Lions didn’t have to do that much to beat us. Wisconsin should provide a much more formidable test, but the Badgers have to have confidence issues after blowing two straight fourth quarter leads. Penn State is the best team in the conference until proven otherwise. Penn State 27, Wisconsin 17

National games of the week:

There are several big games this week, so here is a quick and dirty look at each of them.

#1 Oklahoma vs. #5 Texas - This should be absolutely fantastic. Oklahoma looks completely unstoppable at the moment. They have owned Texas in the past too. As usual,t he winner likely wins the Big 12 South. Okalahoma 27, Texas 24

Notre Dame at #22 North Carolina - If only this were basketball. The downside is that if Notre Dame wins, they actually beat a legitimately good team. Hopefully the Tar Heels can help out hte world and give them loss #2 of the four needed to keep them rightfully out of the BCS. North Carolina 30, Notre Dame 17

#4 LSU at #11 Florida - LSU is a another team that looks really good at the moment. I can't respect Florida anymore after losing at home, again, to Mississippi. LSU is talking a little too much though in the Tebow-gate incident. I'll take Florida at home in the cannabalistic SEC. Florida 14, LSU 10

#13 Vanderbilt at Mississippi State - I only mention this one ebcause its good to see a black and gold school actually exceed expectations. This win gets Vandy bowl eligible, something well deserved for this program. Vanderbilt 21, Mississippi State 10

Ohio State preview

The results of this week’s blogpoll can be found at the following link. This is important, as Purdue faces the #14 team in that poll this week in Columbus. Ohio State has been ranked in all polls of any kind all season long. There is a decent chance that this will be our final chance this season to end the long string of losses to ranked teams, though Michigan State could be another final chance later on. If history prevails, that streak will grow even longer because Columbus has not been kind to us.

It is no secret that Purdue has just one win at Ohio State and Michigan combined since Bob Griese was quarterback in 1966. That win came in 1988 as the Spoilermakers made an appearance and shocked Ohio State in the ‘shoe 31-26. They really shouldn’t be considered Spoilermakers, however, as Ohio State finished that year 4-6-1and lost 41-7 to Indiana.

We have come closer historically in Columbus than we have in Ann Arbor in the last 42 years. I was there during our last visit in 2003. That was an agonizingly close 16-13 loss in overtime that could have sent us on our way with an at large BCS berth that season. In my opinion, that team was Tiller’s best. Three of its four losses came by 11 total points, two of them in overtime. It marked our last appearance in a New Year’s Day bowl as well.

I don’t expect Saturday’s game to be as close. Our offense was better last year against a less experienced Ohio State defense and the Buckeyes pitched a shutout for 59 minutes in a nationally televised sellout at Ross-Ade. This year we are struggling even more offensively. Ohio State may still be figuring out things on their own offense, but their defense will likely stop us quite easily.

Ohio State offense:

Statistically the Buckeyes are more run oriented, but they aren’t exactly Navy when it comes to that preference. Their overall yardage gained is about 55-45 in favor of the run. These numbers also reflect a couple of games without a Heisman-worthy running back and a quarterback change to a more run-oriented player. Ohio State averages about 186 yards on the ground per game. It is probably a similar type of rushing attack that Penn State ran against us only Chris Wells is better than Evan Royster and Terelle Pryor is a better runner than Daryll Clark.

Wells is clearly the catalyst that makes things go, though Pryor has made them much more formidable in recent weeks. Wells has played in just three games so far, leaving one with an injury. He has racked up 385 yards and two scores in that time. Pryor has played in all six games and has 312 yards and four TD’s on the ground. 168 of Wells’ yards came a week ago at Wisconsin, but it was Pryor that made the game’s biggest running play with an unbelievable cut and burst for the winning touchdown. Any time you can use Wells as a decoy and the guy actually carrying the ball is just as good you have a great backfield.

Dan Herron is also a bit of a factor in the running game with 262 yards and a score. Maurice Wells and Brandon Saine can also provide a carry or two in spot duty. The main thrust of the ground game will come from Wells and Pryor though. Sadly, I don’t know if we have the personnel or the discipline to make one of them commit on option runs. Fortunately, Chris Wells hasn’t been as big of a threat catching the ball since we’re still vulnerable to the screen pass.

Speaking of the passing game, Ohio State’s isn’t very productive at just 151 yards per game. This was one area where we actually had some success a season ago. After two early touchdowns on we were able to pick off Todd Boeckman three times. Boeckman is on the bench now after throwing for 446 yards in five games with only three scores against a pair of interceptions. In is Pryor, who has 440 yards passing and five scores in six games. Ohio State doesn’t throw a lot, so if we can slow down the running game and make them throw we might have a chance. The Buckeyes throw an average of 24.5 times per game, completing 64% of those passes.

On the receiving end Ohio State has good, but not stellar receivers. Brian Robiskie (22-213-4) is the most important target. Ray Small (16-122-0) was the one who did the most damage to us a year ago with six catches for 70 yards and a score. Brian Hartline (13-226-2) and Dane Sanzenbacher (10-105-0) are the only others with significant numbers. Our biggest concern is containing this group when Ohio State has to throw. If we cannot make them throw by slowing down the running game they won’t have many receptions anyway. Ohio State had just 144 yards passing a week ago with a long of just 27. They have yet to complete a pass of more than 50 yards, so we’re not looking at a team that loves to throw the deep ball.

Another key element to any success we have will be the development of a pass rush. Ohio State’s protection hasn’t been the greatest all season. They have given up 16 sacks through six games, but Pryor’s scrambling ability allows him to escape some sacks other quarterbacks cannot. We simply must get a pass rush and get Pryor down once we get to him to have any chance. Ohio State has had an astounding 39 plays go for negative yardage as well. That’s 6.5 per game and we have to get at least that many on Saturday.

Ohio State’s defense:

They call it Tressell-ball, and this year’s Ohio State team is much like its predecessors. The offensive numbers aren’t eye-popping, but the defense makes sure it doesn’t need to be. Last season I felt even with a poor defense we had a chance if we held them below 25 points. We did that, but had no chance because the Buckeye defense smothered us all night long. When you take away USC’s 35 point outburst the Buckeyes give up a miserly 12.4 points per game. They also like to take the ball away with 14 forced turnovers on the year. Even if our defense does play well and holds them in the 20-25 point range we have to move the ball and get points when we have the chance to.

It all starts in the middle with All-American James Laurinaitis. He is on his way to making a lot of money in the NFL at this time next year. He is a linebacker that we can only dream of in that he plays the run and the pass well. He has 57 tackles on the season to go with a sack and an interception. He seems to be in on almost every play, so it is not like we can just run away from him.

Still, it’s not like Ohio State is completely shutting teams down. They are giving up more than 100 yards rushing per game. Statistically that is worse than Penn State from last week, so Kory Sheets may find a little more room to run. We have to commit to it though, as the Ohio State pass defense is very good at just 155 yards per game given up. They also have nine interceptions as a team. This means Curtis Painter cannot afford to sail too many passes.

Kurt Coleman and Malcolm Jenkins each have two of those interceptions. Jenkins leads the team in pass break ups with four. We also need to watch out for Chimdi Chekwa, a nickel back who seemingly had 4662 tackles in the game against us last year. All told this is a team-oriented defense. The numbers, outside of what Laurinaitis has put up, are actually fairly balanced across the board.

When it comes to getting into the backfield Ohio State isn’t great. They have just nine sacks on the season. Marcus Freeman leads the team in this category with three. The defensive end is also third on the team in tackles with 36 stops and a pair of pass breakups.

Ohio State Special teams:

Another major aspect of Tressell-ball is that his teams get points wherever they can get them. Special teams play a major role in this, and that is no different this year. Ryan Pretorius is a solid kicker, having made 11 of 14 attempts so far. He has a long of 50, while Aaron Pettrey made his only attempt of the season from 54 yards out. This means that the Buckeyes are a threat to score any time they get inside our 40 yard line.

A.J. Trapasso helps the defense out by being of the best punters in the country. He carries a 44.9 yard average per punt and drops the ball inside the 20 more than 20% of the time. His hang time is excellent as well. Only 9 of his 25 punts have had returns for an average of only 4.6 yards. Basically we can forget about returning punts all day, but we have to watch Ohio State. Small is a dangerous punt returner at 16.3 yards per return. He has already taken one back too.

On kickoffs Trapasso and Pettrey are very good at getting touchbacks. Both Ohio State and its opponents are averaging 18.7 yards per return with no touchdowns. Since Ohio State doesn’t give up many points they haven’t had many chances to return kicks. Brandon Saine is the main returner with an 18.4 yard average.

Final Thoughts:

Coming into the season I didn’t think we had a chance in hell of winning this game. Even after five games I have changed my tune a little. I feel like we have a better chance against Ohio State than we did against Penn State, but it still isn’t a great one. Against the Nittany Lions we played a nearly perfect game for the first 20 minutes. A pair of second quarter missed field goals killed our momentum, leading to a loss. Perhaps a bigger play was the fumbled snap by Painter on third down. Had we scored a touchdown on that drive the entire mojo of the game would have changed. Again, the ability is there, but we still have to put it all together.

For some reason, Tiller’s teams have always played Ohio State the toughest of the big three (Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan). We’ve grabbed a pair of wins from them. We very nearly derailed their national championship season. We’ve even been within a field goal twice (1999 and 2003) of escaping Columbus with a win. Last week we lost because of our own mistakes. We left at least 7 points on the field and a ton of momentum. If we can limit those mistakes this week we may actually have a chance.

Again, we must at least slow down the running game. If Pryor and Wells are allowed to run wild early we have no chance. If we can force Pryor to throw, that will be playing to the weakness of the Ohio State offense and the strength of our own defense. It has been a long while since we have forced a team to do what we want them to do. Usually it is the other way around, and Ohio State is very good at doing that.

Of course, holding them in the 20’s means very little if our offense takes 50 minutes to score again. Carson Wiggs is most likely going to get his chance as the placekicker this week. He needs to come through when we’re close, and he has the leg to give us points inside the 35. Chris Summers is a good, smart kid. In reading interviews with him about last week it is clear that no one is more upset than him over his performance. He still has enough talent to be very successful if it is punting, placekicking, or both. Like Travis Dorsch in 2000 though, I think pulling double duty has caused one area to suffer. Should he get a shot at redemption this week I hope he comes through.

We can solve the field goal anxiety if we start getting touchdowns again. Last week we were patient and moved the ball on time-comsuming, sustained drives for the first time in ages. We have to do the same. Do not discount Kory Sheet’s 59 yards last week. He earned every one of them. Purdue teams of old would have abandoned the running game long before he got to 20 yards in similar circumstances. That showed me that, however slowly, we’re actually learning some.

It’s also becoming very old, but Curtis Painter must start playing like we know he can play. Compared to his previous numbers, he has flat-out sucked this year. Ohio State isn’t the best team for him to break out against, but he must be patient, look for other receivers and not turn the ball over. Not looking for receivers cost us the Oregon game when Kory Sheets was wide open and could have walked in during the first overtime. Elliott even showed his elusiveness and ability to read the defense better on his one drive last week. His head actually moved through progressions. We need Painter to do this, but I fear it is too late.

The sad thing is that at this point, it is little things that could be easily fixed or shouldn’t even be issues in the first place that separate us from our opponents. We knew Central Michigan and Notre Dame were weak running teams, but they ran wild. We knew Central Michigan had a bad pass defense and Notre Dame had a bad run defense, but we struggled against both. We have to attack Ohio State’s weaknesses this week, even if they aren’t glaring ones. Those weaknesses are the passing game on both sides of the ball while at least containing or moving the ball on the ground as appropriate. Of course, we're the worst rushing team statistically in the Big Ten both offensively and defensively. it won't be easy.

Their offense isn’t nearly as scary or balanced as Oregon or Penn State, and we actually did alright in those games. Strangely, I think we have an excellent shot to win Saturday. It is only recent history and knowing who we are that prevents me from really believing it.

Big Ten Blogger's roundtable and Boilermakings

Since the Big Ten bloggers’ roundtable this week is a little shorter and more unorthodox than normal we get a long overdue extended Boilermakings in this space. Also, Jason from Eleven Warriors may have a submission later on after I do tomorrow’s Ohio State preview. I do want to go on record as saying this right now, even though it will probably jinx us, but I have a very odd feeling about Saturday’s game. I feel like something unexpected will happen. That’s not saying much considering that there have been no expectations for this game all year, but I just feel like there might be something worth watching Saturday from a Purdue perspective.

Big Ten bloggers’ roundtable

This week’s roundtable is hosted by Beuford Bixel over at The Only Game That Matters. It’s a little different than most, as it is done Jeopardy-style. That is, he provided the answers and it was up to us to provide the questions. Here are my responses:

Answer: Jay Paterno and the Spread HD
Question: What is an advanced form of Preparation H for octogenarians?

A: Joe Tiller's Mustache
Q: What is the only thing that is the same as his 1997 debut with the team?

A: The Color Purple
Q: What is the state of Purdue fans’ b**** as they continue to wait for the recovery from “The Fumble” We’re well beyond blue here.

A: Brains
Q: What are used by swimmies? FYI: Swimmies are guys like the fifth string punter. They have astronomical GPAs and keep the collective GPA of the team high. They keep the team as a whole from drowning like an inflatable. (And yes, I did read Tom Wolfe’s I am Charlotte Simmons. No, I don’t mean Purdue's tradition of inflatables)

A: Hawkeye State
Q: What is the home of derelict individuals who have trouble fitting with society and receive an inordinate amount of attention every fourth February (and that is BGHP, Slipknot, and Caucuses all in one!)?

A: Rudy
Q: Who is Notre Dame’s latest celebrated 5-star savior recruit?

A: Knee Ligaments
Q: What is the most fragile part of the human body in Eugene, Oregon?

A: Terrell Pryor
Q: Who is a stud that is guaranteed to rush for 150 yards this Saturday?

A: Mark May
Q: Who is someone I pretty much ignore?

A: Rich Rodriguez
Q: What are guaranteed results without any proof they will ever actually come?

Blogpoll is now the CBS Sports blogpoll

As many of you may have noticed on Monday, the blogpoll has now officially been picked up by CBS Sports. Personally, I find this very exciting. This is one step closer to legitimacy (read: world domination) by the blogging public. CBS will be releasing a preliminary poll on Monday mornings, followed by a final poll later in the week after the readers of each blog comment on the preliminary ballots. This is the first year I have had an official ballot, so I am very excited to be on board. For you Boiler fans out there that want to make your voice heard in this poll, please feel free to comment on the preliminary ballot, which will now be published on Sunday evenings.

Much of the credit goes to Brian over at MGoblog. Brian is pretty much the unofficial leader for all of us since he has worked so hard to make his little corner the gold standard of college football blogging. He organizes and compiles the blogpoll every week, so he is responsible for this latest development.

Football picks up new recruit, aims high on another.

There was finally some good news on the recruiting front last night when the Boilers picked up its highest rated recruit to date. 3-star defensive tackle Eric McDaniel from Georgia announced he was headed to Purdue. I am not naïve enough to believe a 3-star recruit is expected to be a program-savior, but I am very encouraged by this commitment. He’s big at 6’2”, 300+ and he has good speed. We need all the help we can get on run defense, and this kid could certainly help in that department. Good programs are built on guys like him as a base in a recruiting class that builds into something better once they arrive on campus. The other guys in the class certainly have some promise and indeed could be improved to three stars before they arrive. This not a huge step forward, but it is a step forward. I'll take that and I welcome him to West Lafayette.

Speaking of welcoming to West Lafayette, the biggest news on the recruiting front before this announcement was that Bryce Brown, the nation’s top rated running back will visit during the year. He has already verballed to Miami (Michigan fans, I am already aware of the irony here), but if he is going to visit there certainly is at least a chance he will end up in West Lafayette. I am in the unique position as a fan of both programs that I will likely be pleased either way. The Canes have the advantage that his brother is already there as a linebacker. I doubt he will change his commitment to Purdue, but I hope he does because we certainly have more of a need for him. Can you imagine pairing him with a healthy Jaycen Taylor next season?

2010 basketball class now set

Matt Painter continues to do a great job on the recruiting trail by stepping out of state to pick up 4-star guard Anthony Johnson from Chicago’s Whitney Young High. Johnson is an excellent shooter as well as ball-handler. His class appears to be shaping us as a very nice compliment to learn the ropes as freshmen from our current core of guys. He can take over as a scorer once E’Twaun Moore departs and be paired with Lewis Jackson to form a very dynamic backcourt. He’s rated as one of the top 50 players in the country overall, so this is a very good pickup. The 2010-11 season is looking almost like a perfect storm for Purdue basketball in terms of experience and young talent.

Basketball schedule analysis:

Before I get too carried away in dreaming of the 2011 National championship I wanted to take a look at the current slate we have facing us this year. It is a schedule with some chest hair befitting one of the nations best up and coming programs. Last season was nice as it had some challenges in Louisville, Missouri, and others while still having plenty of easy games (Wofford aside). This year getting to 20 wins is more than expected since it will likely be Big Ten title or bust. Because almost any Big Ten game can go either way I won’t touch on those for now, but I think a goal of 10-11 wins before the conference season is very reasonable.

The Boiled Sports “Put it in Sharpie”® wins:
Detroit Mercy, Eastern Michigan, Loyala (IL) (if in preseason NIT) Coppin State, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, IPFW, Valparaiso: If we don’t win these games there are some serious issues.

Potentially frisky: Indiana State, at Ball state, Georgia (if in preseason NIT): Each team is listed here for a different reason. The Trees beat us two years ago and played us tough at Mackey last season. Games at the smaller schools in the state are always trap games because the crowd is really up for it. Remember, 2 years ago we were supposed to easily break our long road losing streak and look what happened. Georgia just cares the bejesus out of me after what they did in the SEC tournament last year. How did we get them if we’re the supposed #1 seed for the NIT? We should win all of these, but they could all be tough games.

Excellent tests: Davidson, Duke, Preseason NIT semifinals and finals (Boston College, Oklahoma, and Arizona are favored): Ironically, we could end up facing Davidson twice within about three weeks on two separate neutral courts. Stephen Curry will likely miss his point guard and big center from last season, but he is still a phenomenal scorer. Any team with one of those is very dangerous.

I will attend the Duke game no matter what. I don’t care how much I have to pay for a ticket or if I have to go by myself. I can’t pass up a chance for one of the biggest home games ever at Mackey. I didn’t go to the women’s home game against Tennessee to start the 1998-99 national title season and I’ve always regretted that I didn’t see what was a fantastic ballgame. That game started the run to the title, and this one could too.

The NIT games in New York are hard to call simply because anything can happen with them. Butler swept their way to the title two years ago. And, who could forget Gardner-Webb ending up in New York in a similar tournament last season.

Kyle Orton gives middle finger to critics

Last night I had the NFL Monday Night pregame show on and the same critics who have been bashing Kyle Orton for years had nothing but praise for him. Just a quick internet search found some glowing articles about his play in recent weeks. Sunday he lit up Detroit. This was after a three touchdown game on Sunday Night Football against Philly. He has given the Bears an actual passing offense to be respected. I was even surprised this morning to see on my fantasy team that Orton, as my backup, outperformed my starter in Mr. Brees.

This just goes to show that anyone who criticizes a quarterback in the first 3-4 years of their NFL career is full of crap. Very few NFL quarterbacks do much in that time. Peyton Manning was 3-13 his first season. Ben Roethlisberger won a Super Bowl, but didn’t have huge statistical numbers. Our own Drew Brees was considered so washed up after his third season that the Chargers drafted Eli Manning and traded him for Phillip Rivers. Now Brees is one of the best in the league. No one has patience with these guys anymore. Orton has learned and the game is finally slowing down for him some. I hope he continues to improve with both middle fingers directed toward Bristol, CT.

Women’s Soccer in first place:

After a tie with Michigan and a win over Michigan State the women’s soccer team is in first place in the Big Ten at 3-0-1 and 9-3-2 overall. This is a very good sign considering that this was supposed to be a rebuilding year after winning the Big Ten Tournament a season ago. They have yet to play Penn State and Ohio State who both sit behind them in the standings as their main competition. Both of those games come at the end of the season at home. As long as Purdue stays on this course they should return to the NCAA Tournament, but not as highly ranked as they were last year when they were upset by Indiana in the second round.

Week 6 Big Ten wrap up (with blogpoll ballot)

Because of some changes in the new blogpoll procedure I am moving the Big Ten wraps up to Sunday nights. This will allow me to do some more research as I'll be at a computer with internet access. Hopefully, this will also improve the quality of the writing.

Second, there will likely be a major announcement about the blogpoll coming tomorrow. Basically, all of us voters are gaining legitimacy through and agency that I can't officially say right now, but it rhymes with PBS and they often have SEC games on Saturday's. It is because of this that I must have the blogpoll preliminary ballot posted by Monday morning at 10am. Also, I'll be posting the final results more regularly as well. It's not like Purdue has to be worried about being in this poll the rest of the season, but it is still fun to follow.

Week 6 Big Ten rankings:

11. (10) Indiana (2-3, 0-2) Result: Minnesota 16, Indiana 7 – Indiana moves behind Purdue this week because Purdue at least played a really good team to a two touchdown game. Indiana made Minnesota's defense look to be much more improved than it probably is. Indiana turned it over three times and only had the ball 22 minutes. The running game was virtually non-existent again, and the defense allowed a record day to Eric Decker. Basically, Indiana has taken a major step back. There is simply no excuse for an offense with a player like Kellen Lewis to score just seven points against Minnesota. This is the last game that I expected to be a defensive slugfest. Nearly a quarter of Indiana's yards came on the 77 yard scoring play to Marcus Thigpen.

10. (11) Purdue (2-3, 0-1) Result: Penn State 20, Purdue 6 – I don't think we really learned too much yesterday. Honestly, this was one of the dullest games I have ever been to. Purdue could have made quite a game of thing if not for its mistakes. Penn State simply didn't make any costly ones. I guess we should be encouraged that Purdue didn't thoroughly embarrass itself. That really doesn't say much. We now will be replacing our kicker with an unproven true freshman and everyone has given up on Curtis Painter. Two straight road games isn't the recipe to turn things around.

9. (9) Iowa (3-3, 0-2) Result: Michigan State 16, Iowa 13 – Iowa did what no one else has been able to do this year: they kept Javon Ringer out of the end zone. Turnovers were once again a problem. Shonn Greene wasn't. His 30 carries for 157 yards against a pretty good defense should give Iowa confidence that it can compete this year. Unfortunately, that makes three straight losses by less than a touchdown. They now face a critical game at Indiana. The Hoosiers have been surprisingly dominant the past two years, but it should be a good game since both teams need a victory.

8. (8) Michigan (2-3, 1-1) Result: Illinois 45, Michigan 20 – So much for the defense being the strength of the team. Juice Williams is not particularly known for his throwing ability, but he set a Michigan Stadium opponent records with 431 yards of total offense. The offense itself was better than it has been, but it is still not to the point that it can survive a 500 yard day by an opponent. They basically let a close game get away in the fourth quarter. At least the first quarter was pretty with Michigan leading 14-3. This week's game against Toledo will provide a good chance to work on things.

7. (7) Minnesota (5-1, 1-1) Result: Minnesota 16, Indiana 7 – Minnesota has to feel good that a bowl game is definitely in sight. Minnesota probably had the most good happen to it this week. They know they can trust the defense to at least stop someone now. Eric Decker is a big time receiver. The running game is providing plenty of balance. The offense is also keeping other teams off the field with long drives. You cannot discount the play of their special teams either, coming through with three field goals to get the win. One win is all that is needed now to get to a bowl, and they should get it.

6. (6) Northwestern (5-0, 1-0) Result: bye
– Northwestern may have benefitted the most this week with Iowa, Purdue, Michigan, and Indiana all losing to help their bowl position. The game against Michigan State this week should be pretty big.

5. (4) Wisconsin (3-2, 0-2) Result: Ohio State 20, Wisconsin 17 – I talked at length about Wisconsin may have been the best closing team in the Big Ten after the way it played in the first three games. That clearly isn't the case now, as they have blown two straight leads. The defense has been unable to get a stop when it needed to. They are now out of Big Ten race, and a visit from Penn State won't help things much after this week. At least the last four games on the schedule are the easiest games of anyone to finish on.

4. (2) Michigan State (5-1, 2-0) Result: Michigan State 16, Iowa 13 – I think Michigan State had a win over Iowa much like Penn State over us yesterday. They did just enough to pull it off before facing a tougher opponent next week. Sometimes style isn't important as long as you have more points at the end of the game. I would certainly take that with Purdue right now. The Michigan State bloggers are calling it an ugly win, but that is better than no win at all. I only dropped them because the three teams above them had better wins this week.

3. (5) Illinois (3-2, 1-1) Result: Illinois 45, Michigan 20 – I am very thankful that we don't play Illinois this year. We have enough trouble as it is with dual threat quarterbacks, and Juice Williams demonstrated he is one of the best. The amazing thing is that Illinois got things done both running and passing. They made a pretty good Michigan defense look awful at home. They now have a pair of games at home against Minnesota and Indiana before traveling to Wisconsin. I wouldn't count them out of the Big ten race yet, but having already lost to Penn State hurts.

2. (3) Ohio State (4-1, 2-0) Result: Ohio State 20, Wisconsin 17 – the first test has been passed if they are going to win the conference again. Barring a major upset, only Penn State, Michigan State, and Illinois stand in the way. You never know how tricky the trip to Evanston can be at the end of the year either. I am really impressed by the amount of poise that Pryor is already showing this early in his career. A late drive like that in one of the most hostile night venues in the country is something most 5^th year seniors can't lead. Pryor did it with ease.

1. (1) Penn State (6-0, 2-0) Result: Penn State 20, Purdue 6 – I don't know how much I would give Penn State's win to its defense. In the kicking game alone we handed them a full touchdown. A fumbled snap could have meant another four as well, since Purdue could have gotten a first down on that play and later a touchdown. Once the Nittany Lions got in front by two scores you felt like it was more than secure with that defense. It was a lot like the Ohio State game last year. I also like how they ground out the clock in the closing minutes to not even give us a chance after we scored. There was still enough time that a small miracle was possible, but we never got the ball again.

Blogpoll ballot:

There isn't much change at the top as all the top teams kept on winning. Among the more impressive teams were Texas Tech and USC who each won in games that could have been major challenges. I feel like North Carolina is a team on the rise while I would love to see Vanderbilt keep stealing games in the SEC. Maybe it's the colors, but I have forgotten what it is like to see a team wearing black and gold knock off a ranked team. Feel free to comment in the comments section (and yes, Jack, I would have moved UConn in had they beaten North Carolina).

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oklahoma	--
2	Alabama	--
3	LSU	--
4	Texas	--
5	Missouri	--
6	Penn State	--
7	Texas Tech	1
8	Georgia	1
9	Southern Cal	--
10	Brigham Young	--
11	Florida	1
12	Utah	1
13	Vanderbilt	8
14	Ohio State	2
15	Boise State	3
16	Michigan State	4
17	Oklahoma State	9
18	Auburn	7
19	Virginia Tech	7
20	South Florida	6
21	Kansas	4
22	Ball State	1
23	Wisconsin	8
24	Northwestern	--
25	North Carolina	1

Dropped Out: Oregon (#19), Wake Forest (#22), Oregon State (#25).

Managing Expectations

I breathed this afternoon. I had a wonderful impromptu roundtable with Tim, J Money, and Boilerdowd of Boiled Sports at halftime. I spent time with my parents after the game. I even managed a nice, relaxing trip to Harry’s with my old roommate for a Long Island. The elderly couple from Penn State thought I was losing it during the game, but in reality, as my wife will say, I was actually quite calm all day.

The general theme was one of this: It wasn’t as bad as we thought, but it was more painful because of that. At minimum, we left 7 points on the field. That tells me we could have been in the game right at the end if not for correctable mistakes. That is what makes matters more frustrating. We had a chance, and we blew it.

Now, as if things were not fun enough, we have a genuine quarterback controversy on our hands. Do we go into Columbus and the rest of the season with Painter hoping that he was scared into playing well, or do we scrap that and give Elliott a chance. There is still a chance to get something out of this season. Indiana and Iowa are not playing well, while Minnesota, Northwestern, and even Michigan at home are games we have a realistic chance of winning. It is a case of “managing expectations”, but at this point we need as many positives as possible.

Positives from the Penn State game:

Kory Sheets – I must give credit where credit is due in terms of the coaching staff. We faced a good run defense and avoided our tendency to completely abandon the running game. Kory made some tough yards today. He also had a couple of impressive runs. I can’t forget to mention that he set the new rushing touchdown standard at Purdue with 40 scores on the ground, a feat that will likely take awhile to top. Considering how much trouble we had getting any rushing room, 59 yards and a score is good. Normally it would be something like 15 yards in games like this.

Curtis Painter (rushing edition) – When he ran the ball, he was the Curtis Painter we need. He willed us to a couple of 4th and short conversions early. These were key, as we played the first 20 minutes exactly how we needed to play them to have any chance to win. His rushing ability early on made Penn State at least think about something else for awhile, which is something we sorely need to do more of.

DeVarro Greaves – I pray he is an answer at linebacker. Once Joe Holland went out I thought we were in even more trouble at the position. Greaves only had two tackles, but they came on two very nice plays. He was one of the few players we had today that showed an interested at putting pressure on the quarterback. If the kid can play let’s keep him in there.

Torri Williams – At this point, he is clearly our best player in the secondary. Now we need him to stay healthy and become a leader of our defense. He is one of the few guys we have that is not afraid to hit someone. He also actually plays the ball in the air. His near interception could have been a huge boost.

4th down offense – Early on we were moving the ball down the field and keeping it out of Penn State’s fans. Critical in doing this was our conversion rate on fourth down. We didn’t even think about going for it on all three attempts, and we got all three.

The turf -- I forgot to mention this in the original incarnation of this article, but the turf ended up being our best player on defense today. I'm not sure why we had no issues, yet Penn State looked like it was playing on a slip n' slide. It saved us at least four points with a slip near the goal line in the fourth quarter.

Negatives from the Penn State game:

Chris Summers – We left at least seven points on the field on a day where our defense actually played marginally well. Those seven points were left on the right foot of Chris Summers. I have long been a supporter of Chris. He’s a good kid that plays a position with an enormous amount of pressure. That being said, something is obviously not right at the moment. Both first half misses were huge in that they deflated the momentum at a moment where it was in our favor. The missed extra point broke a school-record length of makes that sealed probably his worst day as a player for Purdue. He even struggled in punting. The boos he received were a bit much, but Chris needs to get things back on track quickly.

Substitution issues – It’s like the coaching issues I talked about all week were manifested in this next area. At times it looked like a circus out there as we were trying to get players on and off the field in the second half. We didn’t even know what was going on and who needed to be out there. How can this happen? If you can’t even figure out who is supposed to be on the field how can you expect to compete. This was simply absurd.

Curtis Painter (passing edition) – The interception was brutal. I don’t think you can even blame it on a bad route. A fifth year quarterback simply shouldn’t make that throw. The reason I am leaning toward giving Elliott the start in Columbus next week is because he actually is mobile in the pocket and scans the field for different receivers. I can see if from my seats in section 128. Elliott’s head moves, while Painter’s does not. The gentleman that sits behind me summed it up best when Elliott replaced him. “Curtis Painter has cost himself a lot of money this year.” His fumble of snap was critical too, as a first down on that play and eventual touchdown changes the whole dynamic of the game.

Elliott’s throw to Tardy on 4th and 10 late in the game was better than any throw Painter has made all year. That alone makes me wonder if it might be time for a change.

The crowd – It seemed like the crowd was never in it today. This was even after we played a great first quarter to give them a reason to get behind the team. It was the most dead I have seen a crowd at Ross-Ade since Colletto roamed the sidelines. It’s almost like we have already given up. I know I ripped this team last week, and rightfully so. Still, I haven’t given up on this team. I still give it everything I have, but today the crowd was resigned to a loss even when it looked like we had a chance at winning. We’re playing the #6 team in the country. Scream your heads off and make them feel like they earned it!

Final Thoughts:

I will give a ton of credit to Penn State. They played a mistake free ballgame. They weren’t overwhelming, but there was little doubt on the day in who was the better team. I won’t even say they survived the game. It was a business-like win that very good teams need on the way to championships. Their fans were very respectful as always. I welcome them to Ross-Ade anytime.

As for us, we are obviously at a crossroads. Only the deluded would give us a chance at winning in Columbus next week. That would put us at 2-4 at the halfway point of the season unless the long lost Spoilermakers can make an unexpected appearance. If the Big ten is fortunate enough to get two teams into the BCS there is a strong chance we can snag one of the eight bowl spots available at 6-6, meaning a 4-2 finish in necessary. I think we can officially count Indiana out from the bowl prospects at this point. Iowa is close to being counted out as well. This leaves eight spots (again, in the two BCS scenario) for nine teams.

Northwestern or Minnesota will be available for one spot simply because each has five wins and they still play each other. We can beat both, and we have to in order to have any chances. Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State are probably safe at this point as well. That’s five spots already spoken for. That leaves us fighting with Michigan, Illinois, and the Minnesota-Northwestern loser. We might be fighting for the Motor City Bowl again, but at this point I will take it.

There were more positives this week than last week. I am encouraged that we at least had a chance against a top 10 team. The defense wasn’t great, but it wasn’t totally awful. Penn State didn’t march up and down the field at will. We’re not a good team though. It is simply the weakness of our remaining schedule and the Big Ten conference as a whole that gives me hope we might still play in December.

The first thing is that we cannot lose any of our remaining home games. We have to have those three under any circumstance. We also must at least split between Iowa and Northwestern. I think most Purdue fans would agree that a 6-6 season looks pretty good at this point.

But how do we get there? Painter and Summers, two players in the most high stress roles, have to be feeling the heat. Tiller even went as far as to say that Carson Wiggs will now be kicking. Summers still must improve on his punting responsibility. Painter has no margin for error in his own role. I honestly don’t know what needs to be done at this point. We have a myriad of issues and I am not in any position to fix them. All I can do is continue to support this team regardless. I still believe, but it won’t just happen. We have to go out and do it.

#6 Penn State at Purdue open thread

We need a miracle today. Feel free to comment int he comments as the game goes on. As usual, I'll be in section 128, while the Boiled Sports guys will all be there as well.

Week 6 Big Ten preview

The ultimate of optimists would say that Purdue is still alive for the Big Ten championship. They would also say that the quest for that title begins Saturday. Of course, I would like to see what this optimist is smoking.

#6 Penn State (5-0, 1-0) at Purdue (2-2, 0-0) Noon, ESPN

I took some flack this week for ranking Purdue at the bottom of the conference when I did Monday’s power rankings. The real question is how can you say we’re playing better than anyone else at the moment? I could see arguments for Indiana and maybe Iowa, but Minnesota? Illinois? Michigan? Everyone else is clearly playing better in most phases of the game. There is little argument that Penn State is on top at the moment. If we’re ninth by the most generous of standards that’s still a tough task.

The difference between both teams right now is that Penn State does not need to play an absolutely perfect game in order to win. Purdue does. I believe we’re capable of that elusive perfect game, but I have little reason to believe it is coming this week. Penn State is the clearly better team, and as we know with Purdue football of late, the clearly better team will often win. Penn State 45, Purdue 21

Illinois (2-2, 0-1) at Michigan (2-2, 1-0) 3:30pm, ABC

This should be a very entertaining game if not crucial for each team’s Big Ten chances. If Illinois wins, they stay alive and avenge a loss that happened mostly because of one mistake in Champaign last year (a muffed punt). If Michigan wins they find themselves 2-0 in the midst of a very difficult part of their conference schedule (Penn State and Michigan State follow). The Wolverines may have turned a bit of a corner last week. They still need to play a complete game.

Michigan’s offensive numbers are still pretty bad. If it weren’t for turnovers, Wisconsin would have won easily. As it was, the Wolverines gave them the ball five times. I need to see some more from Michigan in terms of limiting giveaways and more consistent offense.

I have said before how Illinois reminds me of our 2002 team. They are supremely talented, but they still tend to shoot themselves in the foot. They clawed within a touchdown in the second half last week at Penn State, but then gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown that quickly erased that score. There defense seems incapable of getting the one big stop they need, and the offense can either move quickly or break down quickly. It seems like they have no middle ground. The one thing they have going is that they do not fear playing in the giant venues of the Big Ten. That’s why I give them a slight edge this week. Illinois 24, Michigan 17

Iowa (3-2, 0-1) at Michigan State (4-1, 1-0), Noon, ESPN2

Iowa needs this game badly. A pair of close losses in the past two weeks have them teetering toward .500. Turnovers have been an issue in both. With Penn State and Wisconsin left on the schedule as likely losses they cannot afford to fall to 0-2 in the league. Shonn Greene is gaining some big yards and Ricky Stanzi appears to be the answer at quarterback, but there are still several underlying issues. Turnovers are paramount among them, as good teams don’t turn the ball over five times at home.

Michigan State’s game plan has been simple so far: give the ball to Javon Ringer and get out of the way. Brian Hoyer has not been forced to make important throws yet. He has just three TD passes, but that is because he hasn’t needed to do much. The defense has also been pretty good aside from the California game. They gave up some points at Indiana, but the game was never in serious danger of getting away from them. That is the mark of a good team, and Michigan State is becoming a good one before our eyes. Michigan State 27, Iowa 14

Indiana (2-2, 0-1) at Minnesota (4-1, 0-1)

The winner of this game will be a bowl contender, while the loser will begin to get nervous about the postseason. Both teams are looking at each other as a potential win, especially Minnesota, who is on a nine game conference losing streak. A win over the Hoosiers means Minnesota can reasonable think about wins over Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue, and maybe even Michigan. Three of those four are at home too. I like what the Gophers have done, and a little confidence can go a long way. The Gophers are limiting turnovers and improving the defense from abysmal to at not that bad. That is good enough to get them bowling in a year where teams are regressing instead of progressing.

Speaking of confidence, Indiana’s has to be shot after their dream four game homestand to start the year sputtered to 2-2. Now there is no rock to defend except the old Metrodome turf that was removed to make room for FieldTurf. Indiana is in desperate need of a conference win, especially before a hungry Iowa team comes to Bloomington next week. I fear this game may make or break the Hoosiers’ season. Considering they close with Central Michigan (who is more than capable of beating them), Wisconsin, Penn State, and the alleged “No way in hell” game of Tiller’s finale in West Lafayette they need as many wins as they can get. This should be one of the most fun games to watch in terms of competitiveness. Minnesota 31, Indiana 30

#14 Ohio State (4-1, 1-0) at #18 Wisconsin (3-1, 0-1) 8pm ABC

This is where we begin the official I was wrong portion of the blog. Wisconsin felt like a dark horse national title contender until choking away a 19-0 lead against a Michigan team that had no discernable offense until last week. Now they can kiss even the Big ten title goodbye with a loss to the Buckeyes. Personally, I want them to win. I feel like it is time to mix things up for the Big Ten title this year, even if it is just the usual #3 and 4 teams playing for it in Penn state and Wisconsin instead of Ohio state and Michigan.

Night games in Madison are always special. The Badgers have always been a team that defends the home turf well. If they do so again they’ll be right there for a Rose Bowl berth at the end of the season. The Michigan loss is really inexplicable.

Ohio State also gets another prime time shot against a good team on the road. I don’t want to say it was only Minnesota they beat up last week, but the Gophers provided a decent warm up game for Beanie’s return. Even though Javon Ringer has stolen eh show a bit, this is a match up of the preseason’s two best running backs in P.J. Hill and Beanie Wells. It has defensive slugfest written all over it, but there hasn’t been a good 7-3 Big Ten defensive slugfest in years. I like the Badgers in Madison because they won’t let Ohio state fans take over the stadium like they do everywhere else. Wisconsin 17, Ohio State 14

Quickie Boilermakings:

- The #18 women’s volleyball team continues to play well at 12-2 overall and 1-1 in the Big ten after losing to #1 Penn State last week. More importantly, we beat Indiana for a half Crimson and Gold series point. After Saturday’s football game they will host Minnesota in a Dig for the Cure match where proceeds will go toward Breast Cancer research.

- Things are quiet on the basketball front, but we have a new recruit in Terone Johnson for the 2010 class. I like that Johnson comes from one of the top programs in Indiana. Eric Gordon, A.J. Ratlif, and Jason Gardner all played well for North Central. I saw him play in a game against Kokomo last season and he was an impressive scorer.

- The women’s soccer team is off to a 2-0 start in Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern and Wisconsin last week. Both wins were of the 1-0 variety. This weekend Michigan and Michigan State come to town.

Penn State preview

Coming into the season I felt we had our best chance of upsetting a ranked team against Penn State. They were coming to Ross-Ade. They had an inexperienced quarterback, and the Sean Lee injury raised some questions on their defense. Five weeks into the season this looks like a total mismatch on paper. The Nittany Lions have strengths where we have weaknesses. They have yet to be seriously challenged, but the only team of note they have played thus far is Illinois. In that game Penn State did a fantastic job of answering every single challenge the Illini brought forth.

The optimist in me says that Penn State hasn’t played anyone and Illinois may not be as good as advertised. Still, the Illini’s pair of losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 6. There is no shame in that, and they held their won in each. Though the game was close for much of the first half you had to feel like Penn State was never worried Saturday night. Unless they stumble or look ahead to next week’s big trip to Wisconsin we are likely in serious trouble.

Penn State offense:

Penn State is averaging almost 50 points per game. They rank 9th in total offense at better than 515 yards per game while we ranked 107th defensively. Evan Royster is already halfway to 1,000 yards on the ground and Daryl Clark has given them a threat in the passing game that Anthony Morelli never did. More importantly, Penn State doesn’t make mistakes. Many are saying that we need to be the beneficiary of turnovers in order to have a chance. Penn State has just one interception and has lost five fumbles. Most of the time the Nittany Lions have had enough of a lead that it mattered little.

Penn State has a surprising amount of balance offensively. They have rushed for 100 yards more than they have passed, but the overall numbers are high enough that the difference is truly negligible. Clark has been a threat both ways with 896 yards passing and 131 rushing. He has rushed for three touchdowns, but his running is not an absolutely necessary part of the offense. Even if he gets hurt, comes down with the flu, explosive diarrhea or otherwise can’t play for some reason Pat Devlin has been respectable in limited action (18 of 35, 250 yards and two scores). The beauty of having talent like Penn State and winning your first four games in blowout fashion means everyone gets game experience. That only helps in case the unexpected happens.

Royster has been a quality running back, adding seven touchdowns to 518 yards. He is gaining almost 8 yards per carry, and that number will go up unless our defense is drastically different this week. Stephfon Green has also played well with 314 yards and four scores at a near 7 yards per carry clip. Penn State averages a staggering 267 yards rushing per game.

The passing game is far from weak. Jordan Norwood (18-318-4), Deon Butler (16-272-2), and Derrick Williams (14-188-1) are among the three best receivers in the Big Ten. They are even better now with Clark getting the ball to them regularly. Most importantly, he spreads the ball around fairly evenly. There isn’t one of them we can point to and say, “We have to stop him and we’ll do well.” Five other players in addition to this trio have also caught touchdown passes. Williams is especially dangerous as he returned a kickoff for a TD against Illinois, ran for a TD, and had 6 catches for 75 yards and another score. In a related note, he is now the mayor of the great Champaign/Urbana area after completely owning the Illini.

We can also forget about pressuring Clark. His offensive line has allowed just four sacks in five games. That line is led by one of the best linemen in the league in A.Q. Shipley. They are clearly effective at both pass protection as well as opening holes for Royster and Green. Oregon State’s head coach called their line one of the best in the country. From the sounds of things, even the perennially injured, yet hyped Jason Werner wouldn’t make much of a difference if healthy.

Penn State defense:

Penn State’s defense means we can forget about getting into an offensive shootout. We haven’t scored an offensive touchdown against them since 2005. Their last trip to Ross-Ade ended in the only shutout of the Tiller Era. So far the Lions are only giving up about 13 points per game and are in the top 15 nationally in both total yards and against the run. This is all without probably their best defensive player in Sean Lee, who is out for the season with a knee injury.

We may be able to get something going with the passing game, but that is a big if as Penn State’s numbers are pretty good when you consider they have held a lead for almost every minute of the season. As a result, teams have been forced to pass at will and it hasn’t worked. That fact also contributes to lower rushing numbers, but I think “Linebacker U.” has a big enough say in that already. Illinois has been the only team to put even a marginal scare into them, scoring 24 of the 64 points Penn State has surrendered.

Navorro Bowman leads the defense with numbers that touch nearly every statistical category. He has 45 tackles, 5.5 of those for loss. He’s gotten to the quarterback for three sacks, picked one pass off, knocked down 3 more, and has forced a pair of fumbles. When we have the ball we must be aware of where #18 is on the field at all times. The remainder of the defense is very balanced, but has made life a living hell for opposing quarterbacks.

Aaron Maybin has been the biggest terror in the backfield. He has six sacks though five games with two more tackles for loss. Calling him disruptive is a gross understatement. He’s not the only one that excels at getting to the quarterback as Josh Gaines also has three sacks. As a team, Penn State sacks the quarterback three times per game, and has an impressive 27 tackles for loss.

The secondary is just as balanced as the Nittany Lions have eight team interceptions from eight different players. Granted, some of these have probably come against inferior competition, but it is still impressive. All told 12 players have at least 10 tackles to form a true team defense. Illinois had some success against the Lions by mixing things up fairly well and keeping Juice Williams mobile. This would be an adjustment, however, and that is something I highly doubt this Boilermaker team will do.

Penn State special teams:

Penn State is running like a well-maintained machine lately because all the parts are working. The offense moves the ball, the defense stops other teams, and the special teams give them field position or points all day long. It begins with the return game. Derrick Williams is as dangerous as it gets. He is averaging 36 yards per return and already has two returns for touchdowns in just nine attempts. Chaz Powell also has one 69 yard return, so Penn State will get in good field position on kickoff. If we’re not better than last week they will erase a score quickly with an even bigger return. They haven’t done as well on punts yet, but with Williams returning kicks he is always a threat.

The Penn State offense is so good that opposing teams have had few opportunities to return punts. Jeremy Boone is averaging almost 42 yards per punt and Penn State has limited kickoff returns to less than 24 yards per attempt. Notre Dame kicked away from Desmond Tardy last week, and after we got them on the opening kickoff a year ago you can bet Penn State will do the same.

Kevin Kelly is an accurate kicker who makes sure that the Nittany Lions get points when they get close to the goal line. He is 5 of 6 with a long of 52 yards on field goal attempts, while Collin Wagner made his only attempt of the year as well. Kelly is a perfect 30 of 30 on PATs. Considering that the 30 PAT’s mean Penn state is getting in the end zone 6 times per game I doubt field goals will come into play. If they do, it is yet another advantage.

Final thoughts:

So how are we going to do this on Saturday? Well, the first step is attitude. I know I sound like Lou Holtz here (much as it sickens me), but from Joe Tiller on down to the third string punter we have to believe we can pull this off. We should be able to tell within five minutes if we have a chance. If we don’t have the right attitude coming in it could be over that quickly. I am encouraged that this is largely the same team we played fairly well against in Happy Valley a year ago. It is also their first real road trip of the year since Syracuse is so bad they don’t count.

Attitude isn’t only believing we can win. It also means we have to adjust on both sides of the ball and keep teams guessing. We are capable of that. We did it against Oregon. There were moments in that game where I remarked that someone must have told Joe it was 1997 because he actually tried a few different things. We don’t have to do wild trick plays either. An example would be having Siller throw the ball when he lines up at quarterback. He has yet to do so, so they automatically expect run. Just tell him to throw on a certain route if it is there, or tuck and run if it’s not.

Second, we cannot turn the ball over. We must also give Painter time to throw against a team that will rush him. Curtis has a good game in him this year. It’s time for him to play like he has been hyped coming into the season. There have been whispers of a benching in his future if he doesn’t improve. Nothing would be sadder than one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks (statistically speaking) finishing his career riding the pine pony. This is likely his last realistic shot at beating a ranked team, so he must take advantage.

Defensively we need nothing short of the complete opposite performance that we have seen so far (except for the first half against Oregon). Unfortunately, I don’t know how we will do it. If we stack nine guys against the run they have three elite receivers that can run circles around us. If we play 6 DB’s they have backs and a quarterback that can make yards in a hurry. Illinois had better personnel, but could only handle them for a time. Oregon State was obviously good enough to slow down a very good USC team, but got blown away in Happy Valley. I don’t even know if a similar effort from the first half of the Oregon game will be good enough because of the balance Penn State has.

The bottom line is that if we somehow pull off this upset it will be the biggest win since at least the 2000 season and maybe of Tiller’s career. The saving grace to our performance to this point in the season is that we have a clean slate in conference play. Going out and knocking off the best team (at the moment) in the conference would go a long way towards redeeming the season. It remains to be seen exactly how we would pull off such an upset. I believe we can do it, but it will take a very special effort that I am not sure we can deliver anymore.

Roundtables and ramblings

It’s roundtable time again, and this week’s Big Ten Bloggers’ roundtable is hosted by the noted Ohio State blog Our Honor Defend. Since we’re into conference play the questions should be heating up. Also at the end of this entry are a few questions for the larger blogpoll roundtable, hosted by Big Red Network.

We're all basically in conference play now, sans Purdue who played visitor to Notre Dame over the weekend. What did you see in the conference opener that you liked? What did you see that sucked noodles? If you're one of the Purdue blogs, what did you see against Notre Dame that has you nervous (or even optimistic) for your conference opener against Penn State this Saturday? Oh, and, have fun with that game, by the way.

I honestly saw very little that made me believe we had a chance against Penn State. That which does make me feel optimistic is what I saw in the Oregon game. There have been flashes that this team can be pretty good. Penn State runs the ball well, but for most of the first half we contained and even better running team in Oregon. Still, it’s the old bad defense vs. good offense that has me pessimistic. I know that this team can compete with anyone in the conference. The talent is there, but our refusal to make in-game adjustments is just maddening at this point.

Ole Miss punked #4 Florida in Gainesville. #1 USC got punked by Oregon State on national television? What's the underlying theme behind these bizarre upsets? You guessed it: magic. Some kind of hocus-y pocus-y sorcery in the form of "familiarity". The idea being pitched around is that these upsets come in conference games because the underdog has played the heavily favored team before, and thus isn't afraid of them nor surprised by anything they do. Should I buy this idea? Or are these upsets more likely the combination of something more conventional, like great/horrendous gameplanning, preparation and execution by the underdog/favorite team respectively?

I don’t buy into the familiarity theory. We’re familiar with Ann Arbor and Columbus, but the Boilers have exactly one win combined at both places since 1966. I do think there has to be an attitude of fearlessness. That attitude has been missing for some time in West Lafayette, and that stems directly form the coaching staff. Again, we saw glimpses of it against Oregon in the first half, but eventually the sphincter tightened up and we played not to lose. In the 1997 Notre Dame game we played to win. Instead of sitting on a 4 point lead we went down the field in the last two minutes and made it an 11 point lead. You stomp on a team until they are dead. Oregon State did that by eschewing a field goal just before halftime. They gambled for a touchdown, and got just that. To me, that was the biggest reason they pulled the upset.

Entering the season, Beanie was the Big Ten's Heisman favorite. After a few games, Javon Ringer had put up the Heisman stats, though I don't think anyone could've believed that Ringer would have the hype machine necessary to get him to New York. Yet, after this week, I see his name mentioned more and more in the Heisman race. Do you think Ringer, at this pace, gets to New York on something more than a courtesy visit (on courtesy visit, see: everyone last year not named Tim Tebow; everyone in 2006 not named Troy Smith)? How about Daryll Clark? Is Daryll Clark of Penn State legitimately in the Heisman race after week 5?

Ringer has been nothing short of impressive so far. He’ll get to New York if he keeps putting these numbers up simply because teams are preparing for him now. A 2,000 yard back from a major conference is almost guaranteed a plane ticket to New York. Whether the Spartans knock off Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State will determine if he brings the trophy home.

It is still probably too early to tell about Clark. I’ll check back after he faces Ohio State and Michigan, two teams that have had a lot of success against Penn State recently. His numbers are good, but not overwhelming. If he starts lighting teams up and leads Penn State to an unbeaten season he’s got a decent chance. Most of the Heisman is about preseason hype though. It will probably be Tebow’s unless he spikes himself.

With the nonconference schedule basically over, do you think the Big Ten collectively bettered its standing from the maligned position it was in before the season began? For every Wisconsin victory over Fresno State and Penn State thrashing of Oregon State, there's Michigan's turnover bonanza against the Irish and Ohio State's neutering by USC. Long question short, what sticks out more: the positives or the negatives for the conference?

Well, Purdue certainly didn’t help matters by losing both of its marquee games with one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. The Ohio State loss is glaring, but After Oregon State ran all over USC it would be very interesting to play that game again with Beanie and Pryor playing full time. Indiana getting waxed at home by Ball State, a team that is very good but had never beaten a BCS foe before, wasn’t good. Because of that, the negatives stick out more. What positives are there? Penn State over Oregon State looks much better. Not many people watched Fresno State-Wisconsin and that wasn’t helped by Fresno nearly gacking to a bad Toledo team the following week.

As I'm sure you may have seen on your moving pictures box, the Ernie Davis movie has been getting a lot of publicity for its imminent release to theatres. The story, of course, centers around the first African-American Heisman winner and some of the trials that come from being a black athlete, playing before the Civil Rights movement and playing in the Cotton Bowl. Does your football program have an uplifting story that you think is movie-worthy? If so, please share it.

Boiled Sports already stole my thunder, but they are certifiable badasses for finding that cool interview with Drew Brees. I might go with Great Walk-ons of the Joe Tiller Era, featuring Pro-Bowl Center Nick Hardwick, Seth Morales, Jake Standeford, and Frank Duong. Those are four guys that out-performed virtually every 4 and 5 star recruit (there have been a few) that we’ve gotten under Tiller. Standeford could even be the anti-Rudy as a shadowy figured that shot Selwyn Limon in the eye with a pellet gun, stabbed him in the chest, and got him drunk to get more PT. I am kidding, of course. Jake is one of the most respected players here at Off the Tracks. It would be funny though.

Blogpoll Roundtable:

Q: Of the four presumed national title contenders to go down this past week--USC, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin--which team has the best chance to get back in the race by the end of the year?

It has to be Georgia. Their loss was the least egregious and they could get revenge still in the SEC championship game. Should both the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide win out the rest of the way, then Georgia wins in Atlanta we very well could have the first re-rematch in college football history. Florida likely won’t get the same crack at Mississippi. To get out of the Big Ten and into the title game you have to be unbeaten this year, and only Penn State and Northwestern can say that so far. USC might have a shot, but I doubt it with the Big 12/SEC lovefest.

Q: But what does this mean for Ohio State? Are they back in?

No.

Q: Did the week that was open the door for any of the undefeateds out of some of the non-BCS conferences like the Mountain West or the Big East? (Yup, that's a cheap shot. Thanks, Virginia Tech for not allowing me to make it about the ACC.)

That would be interesting, wouldn’t it? I especially like BYU’s chances if UCLA can do well in the Pac-10. Boise State might be the real deal as well with a convincing win at Oregon under its belt. If South Florida runs the table their non-conference win over Kansas will help.

PSA time:

Finally, I wanted to touch on a more serious issue. I was contacted this week by a wonderful outfit called DonorsChoose, which donates money and equipment to public schools with underfunded programs. I am teaming up with them this month in the blogger challenge to raise money for technology and science programs. There will be a new widget up on the right, and those interested in finding out more information or donating should follow this link.