Senior Day for Tarrance Crump

An anonymous reader pointed out to me yesterday that Tarrance does have a bit of a legacy at Purdue. I had simply forgotten it because I was unable to watch that specific game. While my wife and I were in Hawaii for the 2006 football game against the Warriors Purdue took on Virginia in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and the allure of the beach was much stronger than watching Purdue and Virginia at 1pm. We were still feeling out this Purdue team after a trip to Maui had netted a pair of wins, but they were certainly showing signs of improvement over the previous couple of seasons. In a tight game Crump drove the lane and hit the game-winning floater to beat the Cavaliers and give Purdue its first victory over a ranked opponent in three years. Not only did that win become a critical resume-builder for a return the NCAA tournament, it may have been a key turning point in the fortunes of the program. If Tarrance doesn't make that shot there is a strong possibility that we lose that game, and maybe it undermines the confidence to win a few more games to get back to the NCAA tournament. In retrospect, Tarrance does have a much bigger hand in what Purdue is building right now because of that shot.

Tomorrow he will return to the scene of that shot for the final time. It is my hope that coach Painter gives him the start and he has a good game after all he has been through for the program. Our opponent is Northwestern, a team that is playing some of its basketball of the season and is encouraged after finally breaking through with a conference victory. They now leave Oregon State as the only major conference team without a conference victory this season. Not only that, they have been able to play well against some good teams of late, pushing Purdue and Michigan State while giving Indiana a scare last Saturday night. The Wildcats should present an easy challenge, but we still have to get the job done.

Since we last saw the Wildcats:

Thanks to Michigan we now have a winner in the race to be the worst major conference team in Division 1 and it is not from our own conference. My colleague over at Lake the Posts deserves some sort of medal, Nobel Prize, or vacation of his choice for following the Wildcats this season. He has spoken about their lack of a killer instinct for some time, but Craig Moore finally delivered it with a clutch 3-pointer in the final minute against Michigan. Sure, it was witnessed by approximately 8 fans (3 of which have the Big Ten Network and were watching at home), but a win is a win.

Moore has been playing incredibly well for the 'Cats lately and he is now their second leading scorer on the season. He connected on eight 3-pointers for 25 points against Michigan, and has been in double figures in eight of their last nine games. The one game he was under 10 points came when Purdue visited Evanston two weeks ago. In that game Moore hit only two of seven shots, but every shot was from 3-point land. Only Iowa's Justin Johnson has shot more 3-pointers this season than Moore conference-wise, and no one has made more (88) than Moore. This kid averages more than eight 3-point attempts per game.

So we know what Craig Moore is going to do, but the other dangerous player is Kevin Coble. Among active players (Geary Claxton is still up there) Coble is the best scorer in the league behind only White and Gordon at IU. Coble went nuts for 37 points against Indiana last week on 12 of 16 shooting from the field. Since he is only a sophomore, Moore a junior, and #3 scorer Michael Thompson a freshman the pieces are in place for Northwestern to actually make a little noise next season.

Aside from the win over Michigan and the close call against Indiana Northwestern lost another very close one on the road at Iowa 53-51 immediately after the Purdue game. Since the Hawkeyes come to Evanston next week Wildcats have high hopes for a home conference win now. Iowa certainly has not been playing well enough lately to give them a ton of confidence even against the likes Northwestern. Simply put, the Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season, and with their quirky offense they have just enough spunk to require our full attention Saturday.

Fortunately, we should have learned our lesson he first time around. For 30 minutes in Evanston the Wildcats played us even. That is when we decided enough was enough and we finished on a 23-6 kick. Our own Moore, this time of the E'Twaun vintage, had a career day with 28 points, seven of them in those final 10 minutes. It was Keaton Grant, however, that got things going with back-to-back 3-pointers to break a 50-50 tie. Now that we know we can turn it on pretty much at any time against Northwestern it should serve us well tomorrow.

Game Outlook:

Nearly everybody thought this game was going to be our easiest game among the last four, and nothing has really happened to change my thinking on that. Northwestern is certainly a dangerous team because anybody can be dangerous if shots start falling and momentum gets going in their favor, but we are one terrible performance against Wofford from being undefeated at home. An IU lurker on the Purdue boards talked about how Mackey Arena isn't a tough place to play. If it's so easy to win in Mackey why is it the only team in the conference (Ohio State) to do so the last two years had three NBA draft picks on it? We are a completely different team since the Wofford game, and I honestly think it will take a Wofford-level performance to lose this one. One must remember: even in Wisconsin's impressive streak under Bo Ryan at the Kohl Center they still lost a head scratcher to transitional D-1 member North Dakota State.

Even with Northwestern's sudden scoring surge they are 10^th in the conference in scoring and comfortably last in rebounding. As long as we don't have 16 turnovers like we did in Evanston I suspect we will be just fine. All we need to do is take care of the ball, be patient on defense as they work the ball around, rebound against the one team we have owned the glass against this year, and not overlook them. Those are pretty easy keys to a victory. Purdue 67, Northwestern 55.

Non-conference opponent updates:

It's been awhile since I have done this, but here is an update on how each of our non-conference opponents are doing in terms of helping our seed for the NCAA tournament. I'll try to rank them in terms of who is helping us the most, and who is doing the least.

Louisville (23-6, 13-3 1^st place Big East) – A win over the first place Big East team is certainly the crown jewel of our non-conference season. It should help us avoid being put in the same bracket as them as well.

Clemson (20-7, 8-5 3^rd place ACC) – Since this came on the road it is far from a bad loss. The Tigers are solidly in the dance and after beating Miami this week they are securely the #3 ACC team. Playing them close on their floor is a bonus, but I still feel we could have won.

Missouri State (15-15, 7-10 8^th place MVC) – The Bears are here because they did just get a quality win over Drake. They have just enough in them to make a run in the Missouri Valley Tournament, making our win better.

Indiana State (14-14, 8-9 7^th place MVC) – The Trees are the easiest team in the country to figure out. They are nearly unbeatable at home (12-1), and terrible on the road (2-13). They face Missouri State in Terre Haute this weekend. Willa neutral court in St. Louis yield ties?

Missouri (15-13, 5-8 10^th place Big 12) – The Tigers have played a tough schedule, but had they done anything in the Big 12 they would be NCAA-worthy. We were in full control until the final 7 minutes too, which may have been the worst stretch of basketball we have played all year.

Iowa State (14-14, 4-9 11^th place Big 12) – I think this one hurts more than losing to Wofford. At least the Terriers played out of their minds and are having a decent year. Iowa State is the definition of mediocre.

Wofford (14-15, 7-12 8^th place So-Con) – Well, they were having a decent year before their current six-game losing streak. Getting to the dance would mean shocking unbeaten Davidson in the tournament.

Lipscomb (14-15, 8-7 6^th place Atlantic Sun) – Right now they are hanging about even with Gardner-Webb, and we know what they can do.

Bethune-Cookman (11-17, 5-9 9^th place MEAC) – A 26-point win over a bad MEAC team is what you would expect.

Loyola (IL) (11-17, 6-11 8^th place Horizon) – They will offer no help as Butler, Wright State, or Cleveland State will win this auto-bid.

Florida International (9-18, 6-11 10^th place Sun Belt) – The same as Loyala above with South Alabama and Western Kentucky replacing Butler and Co.

Texas Southern (7-20, 6-8 7^th place SWAC) -- Check out this strange ending from when Texas Southern beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff. It doesn't really help us it is their highlight of the year.

Ball State (5-21, 4-9 10^th place MAC) – At least they aren't dead last in the MAC like many expected. It will be years before they are good again.

That is what good teams do

Because the Big Ten Network and the fact I physically cannot get it in my apartment (it is Brighthouse or Amish Cable in my building) is the bane of my existence I was once again reduced to watching the gametracker on ESPN.com or following the scores across the screen while I was working out. Fortunately I was not paying attention when Minnesota made a comeback to briefly take a three point lead, but from what I saw the rest of the time it appeared Purdue was in firm control of the proceedings throughout. Since working for the NCAA affords the benefit of having the Big Ten Network in the break room I was able to watch most of the first half at lunch today, confirming such suspicions. I continue to be amazed, as most people have, that this team does not play as young as they are. Last night easily could have been a difficult game, but instead the Boilers came out after a long layoff and looked like a team loaded with upperclassmen that simply outclassed their opponent.

At the start of both halves we established our dominance early with a run. In the second half we kept Minnesota comfortably at bay and never let them mount a serious charge from behind. This is the mark of being a good team. When you are a good team you make a win like this one, in a game that was very physical, look easy. This is one of the few times this season Purdue has been able to do this, and coming off of an eight day layoff it was even more impressive. I am now fully convinced that the Iowa State, Wofford, and maybe even the Missouri losses were complete flukes. If we were to play them again, at least Wofford, we would win going away.

Positives from the Minnesota game:

E'Twaun Moore – I can get very used to E'Twaun having regular 20+ point games. He has now topped 20 three times in our last eight games with a low point of only 11 against Indiana and Wisconsin. He is learning that he can create his own shot and I am very pleased with his ability to knock down the pull-up jumper. In games where he shoots 50% or better we do so much better as a team, and his worst shooting performance (at Indiana) is our only loss in our last 13 games. The best part is that we are not really a team that has to go as good as someone like E'Twaun goes. We continue to have multiple options that force people to play him one-on-one. E'Twaun has also proven he can pass and dish out assists well when necessary, which only makes him even better.

Keaton Grant – The numbers weren't eye-popping, but Keaton had an especially efficient game last night. Since we aren't that great of a field goal shooting team yet efficient performances like Keaton's last night are critically important. It also helps that he hit the biggest shot of the night with a running 35-footer just before the half. Instead of going into the locker room tied we instead had a 3-point lead and Minnesota was demoralized by their poor defense in those final few seconds. Minnesota had just played a pretty good first half, but we had survived their big run. They then slacked off in those final seconds and Keaton made them pay dearly. We never trailed again, and it was a huge boost.

Field Goal shooting – It was better. I stated in yesterday's that if we took care of the basketball and shot 40% or better we would be able to win easily. We shot exactly 40%, turned the ball over 10 fewer times than our opponent, and walked away with a 12-point victory. We also shot better than 40% from 3-point land, which is critical for a team that has come to rely on the three as much as we have. I am most encouraged by the fact that our field goal numbers continue to improve.

Focus – To me this was the biggest positive from last night's game. There are some bad, bad teams in the Big Ten this year, but Minnesota is not one of them. They are very well coached and they have enough balance and talent to give anyone a good game. Other than their big first half run we never let them even have a chance at stealing this one away from us. I feel like we turned a major corner by taking a good team and putting them away like we did.

Negatives from the Minnesota game:

Rebounding – I continue to be confused as to how we allow the rare team without a size advantage against us out-rebound us by a large margin. Surely we are not that bad in the paint. Robbie Hummel came to rebound, but he is quickly a basketball freak of nature that is channeling Brian Cardinal and Larry Bird in terms of effort. How can our post players, Calasan and Johnson, continue to have less than five rebounds between them? Did John Allison come back with some remaining eligibility? Allison had to be the worst rebounder in a 6'11" body I have ever seen, but he usually pulled down at least 3 a game by accident. We have to improve our rebounding if we're going to go deep in March.

Nemanja Calasan (after the game's first five minutes) – I love this guy's intensity, but recently he has been great in the first five minutes only to disappear for the rest of the game. Calasan has had some big games for us this season, but lately he hasn't done much aside from a 3-pointer and maybe a basket or two inside to start the game. I was hoping to see more from him and Johnson last night, but if they want to save it for the postseason then breakout there it is fine with me. Regardless, he needs to rebound better. I think we need to have Sutor and Reid just hack on him in practice while he's trying to make a lay-up so he can finally hit some two foot shots with consistency.

Defense – Working on this over the break must have helped because we held another team to roughly 35% from the field. Wins become so much easier when you do this, and we never let them find a go to guy. We found ours in E'Twaun, but they were never able to get in a groove or find a guy that would consistently get a basket for them when they needed it. The closest guy was probably McKenzie, but his scoring was pretty spread out. Gopher Nation was especially impressed with Purdue's defense.

Up next:

One down, three to go seems to be the general consensus of the Purdue fan base right now. With Michigan's shocking loss to Northwestern that road trip doesn't look nearly as scary now. Conversely, Northwestern coming to Mackey Arena this Saturday looks to be a little more difficult than expected, but it is a game that if Purdue plays to their ability they should handle the Wildcats quite easily. That leaves next week's roadie at Ohio State. The Buckeyes, who face the Gophers in what amounts to an NCAA elimination game Saturday at the Barn, will either be a demoralized bunch or a desperate opponent fighting for their postseason lives.

First we must take care of Northwestern on Senior Day. I have not said much about our one senior this year, but Tarrance Crump has done a very good job of accepting his role with all the freshmen and overcoming some of the challenges he faced early in his career. Coach Painter's first season in 2005-06 was a pretty forgetful one, but for Crump it had to be downright frustrating. Before that season Tarrance was involved in a nasty hit and run incident with a pedestrian while driving drunk. It was obviously not the smartest decision he ever made, but it gave him an opportunity to take stock before he ever set foot on the court of Mackey Arena as a player. Coach Painter naturally suspended him for the season under the guise of a forced redshirt, and Tarrance had to watch as the Boilers floundered on the court.

Tarrance doesn't put up big numbers, but the example he set by sticking with the program, taking his punishment, and earning his way back to the floor speaks volumes for his character. I am sure this has come off in a number of intangible ways that we do not see on the stat sheet. I'd like to thank Tarrance for his commitment and contributions to this team. He may kind of fall into the cracks historically as a bridge between last year's two seniors and this dominant class now, but he certainly will leave his mark because of his contributions. Personally, I will remember his game at Illinois where he stepped up and played well while everyone else was struggling in the first half.

I will be in attendance Saturday for my first game at Mackey Arena since last year's Indiana game. It is a testament to how far this program has come that we are selling out home games against the last place team in the conference again. It will be good to give this team one last taste of a loud home crowd, and hopefully many people will join me here in Indy in a few weeks when the Big Ten tournament gets underway. It is looking like we'll be wearing home whites for quite a while there, so why not bring the home crowd with us?

Back to the Front

It has been a long 8 days, but tonight he Boilers return to the court against the last conference opponent they have yet to see this season. Minnesota is a bit of an enigma, as the Gophers have sat right in the middle of the conference for most of the season. With only two home games remaining and a very tight race at the top of the conference every single game is important. Since Northwestern finally broke through last night at Michigan even that one is no longer the gimme it once was. This Boilermaker team has already locked up a bid to the tournament, so now it is time to play for a conference championship and a higher seed.

The Minnesota game provides an interesting challenge since it is our first game after a long layoff since the end of the non-conference season. It also is the first game we have had a chance to play after a loss since early January. Boiled Sports pointed out this morning that the start of another 11-game winning streak would have us finish as the Big Ten champion for both the regular season and tournament, plus it would put us in the Final Four in San Antonio. I can certainly live with that, and hope it starts tonight.

Minnesota so far:

The Gophers are one of the most well-covered teams in the Big Ten bloggers' network with Paging Jim Shikenjanski, Gopher Nation, and From the Barn each providing excellent analysis throughout the season. Gopher Nation is even the organizer of our Big Ten bloggers' poll where Purdue has had a grip on the number one slot since winning in Madison. Seeing as how the Gophers don't necessarily get along with the Badgers we're probably viewed as good friends of their since we have swept Wisconsin.

On the season, with a few exceptions, Minnesota has done very well in terms of beating the teams it should beat. They currently sit at 17-9, 7-7 in the Big Ten and with a strong finishing kick they could sneak into the NCAA tournament. Because of that they will be wanting tonight's game pretty badly. Among their nine losses the only one I would quantify as a "bad loss" and 84-60 drubbing at the hands of Illinois in The Barn. It is Goldy's luck that the Illini finally chose to play up to their talent level in that game. Outside of the conference Minnesota lost at a decent Florida State team by 14 in the ACC/Big Ten challenge and by 17 at UNLV. The Rebels are a borderline tournament team, but Florida State is not.

Though the Gophers have 17 wins the real problem lies in the fact that none of them could really be called a "good" win. The Big Ten Conference season is littered with near-misses, as Minnesota played Michigan State tough twice but could not break through in addition to close losses to Indiana and Wisconsin. Since Minnesota is battling Ohio State for a perceived fifth bid from the conference the loss in Columbus hurts, but they can get it back by beating the Buckeyes in Minneapolis this weekend. The best win out of conference came over Iowa State 68-58 in Ames. That was the second game of the season, and it should be noted Iowa State beat us. The rest of the non-conference schedule, aside from the two losses, are teams Minnesota should have easily beaten.

Who is dangerous for the Gophers:

Minnesota shocked many this past offseason by going out and grabbing Tubby Smith as a head coach. Say what you will about the man, but he has won a National Championship and more than 400 games, so he can coach a little. As far as players go, the Gophers throw out a lineup that is very much like ours in terms of scoring balance. They too have three players who average in double figures in Dan Coleman (12.5 per game), Lawrence McKenzie (11.4) and Spencer Tollackson (10.5). Three more players chip in at least seven points per game. Coleman built much of his average in a solid non-conference season, but he has leveled off in Big Ten play. McKenzie has become more of the go to guy in Big Ten play, but much like our own team it can change on a game by game basis. The Gophers share the ball very well, averaging more than 16 assists per game.

Minnesota is one of the best scoring teams in the league, ranking third at more than 71 points per game. They have continued to score well once the Big Ten season started, but their numbers are just slightly below our own in conference games only. They also rank 4^th in field goal percentage and are the best 3-point shooting team in the league. These numbers, combined with their own lack of overall size (no player is over 6'9") means they are almost a clone of our team. They are very well coached, as mentioned above, and they have enough overall talent to give anyone trouble.

Defensively Minnesota plays very well, as they force the most turnovers (more than 18 per game) of anyone in the league. They also average nearly seven steals per ballgame, meaning we will have to take care of the basketball against a team that has better turnover numbers defensively than our own. Considering how hungry they are for a big win and the prospect of passing Ohio State right in front of them they could play extra hard.

What not to fear from Minnesota:

For all the positives that Minnesota has, it seems like they lack an ability to finish. A statistic that stands out is turnovers given up. Minnesota turns the ball over more than anyone in the league except Iowa, and that means they have a tendency to beat themselves. While they cause a lot of turnovers, they also give up a large number of them. If we're not able to take care of the basketball tonight's game could easily devolve into a sloppy, low-scoring affair like the Iowa game.

Minnesota also struggles from the free throw line. They are not quite as bad as Illinois from the line, but they only hit roughly two thirds of their shots there. Minnesota isn't particularly strong in terms of rebounding, but their numbers are slightly better than our own. As previously mentioned they are not particularly big. Only Coleman averages more than five rebounds per game. They rebound by committee much like we do, so we should be able to have more success inside than we did at Indiana.

One player to look out for who is not really a danger to score, but can hurt us with his ability to distribute the ball is freshman guard Al Nolen. Nolen ranks in the top 8 in the league in assists and is tied with Chris Kramer and Trevon Hughes for most steals per game. He's the type of player that can truly change things without even putting points on the boards, and as a freshman could be quite a handful in this league the next few seasons.

General Outlook:

I am honestly a little afraid of this game because of how similar the teams appear on paper. The only real difference between the two is the intangible quality of being able to finish close games. Purdue has proven they have it by winning 12 of 14 league games, while Minnesota has been unable to break through against a good team yet. Based on that historical precedent we can expect a close game with Purdue's edge in intangibles coming out in the end.

Unfortunately there is still the wild card of Purdue not playing a game in more than a week. In each of our previous long layoffs we have come out and won, but it has taken us a little while to get going. This break has been advantageous in allowing players like Kramer and Grant to get healed up a bit from some nagging injuries. The team also seems more focused on causing havoc defensively with how much they stressed defense in practice. We should also have fresher legs for the stretch run, and that will help with our shooting.

I am wondering why we focused so much on defense when we have been a good defensive team. I suppose coach Painter simply figures that the shots will eventually start falling again after the dismal performance in Bloomington, so we might as well practice something we can get even better at. This team will be almost frightening against anyone in the country if they continue to improve on defense, and if we can ever rebound as well it will put us in the realm of nearly unstoppable.

Tonight's game should be quite interesting since the teams are so similar, but I expect Purdue's consistency in the end to be a major positive. It also helps that we get to play at home right after this break. The home crowd and the home rims should be a huge boost for a team that has had to sit on a loss to its biggest rival for 8 days. The fact we have had to sit on that loss and consider it while watching both Indiana and Wisconsin go out and continue to win games could be a hidden positive.

All we need to do is take care of the ball tonight because Minnesota thrives off of creating turnovers. Indiana had the athletes and overall talent to overcome the turnover discrepancy in Bloomington, and even then we had to have a terrible night shooting the basketball for them to win. Minnesota, while being a good team, does not have these advantages. When the Big Ten season started I viewed this game as critically important towards getting the necessary 11 wins for an NCAA bid. I felt Purdue and Minnesota were about equal. If we had not gone on an 11 game tear in conference play we probably would be just about equal with them right now. Despite that, it is still an important game, just for a different number of reasons. If they win it means even more to them in terms of the post-season, but to us it would be another step. I would like to see us play a little more aggressively in the paint against a team that does not have a size advantage and not rely on the 3-pointer so much. We also need to defend the perimeter, not allow good looks from long range, and cause turnovers. Shooting better than 40% would also be nice. If we do these things we should be able to get a pretty good win to start our stretch run. Purdue 68, Minnesota 62

Big Ten Power Rankings: Star Wars style!

I was originally going to theme this week’s power rankings with an Oscar theme, but then I realized two things: 1. It is way overdone, and 2. ESPN beat me to the punch with their “Stanley’s” this weekend. At this point it is very heard to call a number one team in the power rankings since there is no real separation among the top three teams. Michigan State will have their say this week with games against Wisconsin and Indiana, but until then the teams are virtually tied. I guess you could drop Purdue back a bit because they are the only one that has lost a game outside of the top 3, but you can also drop Indiana for nearly losing to Northwestern. The argument for dropping Purdue can be refuted by saying they have the best record against the top 3.

So I was looking for another theme this week and decided to keep with the movies. I feel the need to appeal to my inner geek, so I am going to make this a Star Wars themed Power Rankings.Sure, it is also overdone, but not as recently as the Oscars so it seems more fresh. Personally, I don’t care if I am 28 years old and I still read Star Wars novels. Everyone has their addictions, and at least mine is better than crack. The force will be with these Power Rankings, as dark side (Indiana) is already clouding things at the top.

1. (1) Purdue (21-6, 12-2) – Luke Skywalker – Purdue hangs on to my top spot by the smallest of margins. Much like the Hoosier Report had in its rankings, Purdue stays because they are the only team in the top 3 still unbeaten at home. I felt like taking it easy on Tom at Gopher Nation too by not having a 3-way tie at number 1 and screwing up the group’s overall rankings. Purdue’s long winning streak was finally broken at Indiana in one the worst games the Boilers have played all season. Purdue shot very poorly against the Hoosiers, and couldn’t take full advantage of the turnovers they caused. The comparison to Luke is apt because they are still young and slightly reckless, but they are also wise beyond their years. There is some question as to if they can handle the responsibility of being Big Ten champ in the tournament, but Luke did just fine against the Emperor and Vader. The Boilers should as well.

2. (2) Wisconsin (23-4, 13-2) – Obi-Wan Kenobi – The Badgers are very slightly behind Purdue right now based only on the season sweep by Purdue. I still think all three teams are very even at this point in the season, but with a gun to my head I would go with my alma mater or Wisconsin instead of Indiana. The Hoosiers simply have too many issues right now and eventually it is going to catch up to them. I compare the Badgers to Obi-Wan because both quietly go about their business, but they are very good at what they do. Wisconsin never panics, they never feel like they are in over their heads, and they often win when the odds are against them. The same can be said for Obi-Wan, as he gave up to Vader in Episode IV rather than be truly defeated. The Brian Butch game-winner at Indiana was like Obi-Wan killing General Grievous with a blaster.

3. (3) Indiana (23-4, 12-2) – Darth Vader/Anakin Skywalker – Indiana is probably has the best mix of talent and experience in the entire league right now. In reality they are a freak shot by Brian Butch away from being undefeated at home and winning four games under the toughest off the court circumstances imaginable. There is virtually no separation right now between them and both Wisconsin and Purdue, and I feel if it were a true round-robin it is entirely possible they could beat Purdue in West Lafayette, but split with Michigan State like the Boilers have. If Wisconsin were to do the same they would all be totally equal. I reserve the Vader/Anakin role for them because they have enormous talent, but with the way many players are backing Kelvin Sampson it is like they have turned to the dark side. I am sorry, but writing someone’s initials on your shoe should be reserved for death/serious illness-type of support, not when your cheating coach gets caught and still manages to leave town with $750,000. It is almost like they don’t care that the reputation of a clean, respectable program is tarnished forever.

4. (4) Michigan State (22-5, 10-4) – The Emperor – Ultimately, they are not going to win the Big Ten because of the earlier losses to Iowa and Penn State. The Spartans still hold a frightening amount of power in the race with the games against Wisconsin and Indiana this week. Many analysts also think this is still a team that is a danger to make the Final Four, and why not? Duke was a shoe-in a week ago to be a number one seed, but they fell to Miami and Wake Forest to show their vulnerability. Even unbeaten Memphis dropped one at home this weekend, albeit to a very, very good Tennessee team. Just like how the Emperor subtly took over the Galaxy, everyone should be afraid of the experienced and well-coached Spartans sneaking up on them. They are starting to play very well.

5. (6) Minnesota (17-9, 7-7) – Han Solo – Aside from the Illinois game, the Gophers have been much like Han in that they beat who they are supposed to beat, but when they step up against one of the better teams in the conference they have often have their hands full. Minnesota is beginning to have a bit better of an NCAA case for themselves, but in order to do so they have to get at least one big win down the stretch. If they win their last four (at Purdue, Ohio State, at Indiana, at Illinois) they would be 21-9 and 11-7 in the Big Ten. That could certainly be enough for them to leapfrog Ohio State and snag the fifth bid for the conference. Even winning three of four may be enough if they have a good run in Indy. They have played some of the conference powers well, so it’s not entirely out of the question.

6. (5) Ohio State (17-10, 8-6) – Darth Maul – The Buckeyes had a bunch of flashy wins outside the conference, but they have been double teamed (ala Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon) by the conference powers of late. Their loss on Sunday and dismal second half effort certainly looked like they had been cut off at the waist. They certainly control their own destiny when it comes to making the NCAA’s, but they probably have to win at least two of their last four. With the way they have been playing lately that is a pretty tall order to ask. I don’t think they get in with an 18-13 overall record and 9-9 in the conference, especially if Minnesota passes them.

7. (7) Michigan (9-18, 5-10) – Lando Calrissian – Lando likes to play it fast and loose with the rules, just like Michigan did in the late 90’s. As a result, they think they are pretty smooth, but they are trying to work themselves out of quite a mess. Lando also had nothing early on in the saga, but played a big role late. Such is the case for Michigan as it has been playing very good basketball recently. The Michigan blogs openly wondered if this Michigan team would beat anyone but Northwestern this year, but now with a weak finishing slate outside the Purdue game they can get a pretty good seed (for them) in the Big Ten tournament. They may even win a game and stay around for a few days.

8. (10) Iowa (12-16, 5-10) – Chewbacca – What would a Big Ten power rankings list with a Star Wars theme be without Chewbacca? Chewie is a fan favorite, he’s furry, and you don’t want to piss him off. The same can be said for Iowa after they thumped Michigan State earlier in the year. Sparty got revenge this past Saturday, but the damage had already been done by then. I put the Hawkeyes here almost by default because they don’t quite suck as much as the teams below them. I still think they can be a dangerous team, especially in Indianapolis, but now they must win their last 3 games plus at least two in the Big Ten tournament to get an NIT bid.

9. (8) Penn State (12-14, 4-10) – The Wampa Ice Creature – Penn State was very dangerous and would probably be having a pretty good season if not for the loss of Geary Claxton. The same can be said of the Wampa. He was a badass until Luke chopped off his arm. After that he was still dangerous, but not as much for obvious reasons. I still don’t think Penn State is a very good team without Claxton, but there is just enough there that with one more upset in the last four games, be it against Indiana or Wisconsin, they can greatly help Purdue while getting themselves in position for an NIT bid. Even then they would have to win a game in Indianapolis to do so.

10. (11) Northwestern (7-18, 0-14) – C-3PO – The Wildcats move out of the cellar this week based on their two near misses. I don’t care what Indiana was going through, they have enough talent that they should beat Northwestern by 20 every time. I will give a ton of credit to the Wildcats for sticking around and nearly pulling off one of the biggest upsets in Big Ten history. Like C-3PO they are smart and fluent in many forms of communication, but no one really listens to them. Threepio isn’t especially dangerous to anyone, but he has had a few moments just like Northwestern did on Saturday night. They may not win a game, but they have been playing much better of late and Kevin Coble deserves a special mention for his explosive performance against the Hoosiers.

11. (9) Illinois (11-17, 3-12) – Jar Jar Binks – Aside from the Minnesota win, Illinois has been absolutely horrendous of late. Not only that, many people just wish Bruce Weber would shut up like most Star Wars fans wished Jar Jar would shut up in Episode I. Now that Brian Randle is done for probably the season they seem to have no other redeeming qualities, which is another trait they share with Jar Jar. I have gone to bat time and again for Illinois this season, but I will do so no longer after they simply refused to beat Indiana or Wisconsin. They have screwed up more wins by dumb plays and missed free throws than I have ever seen in a team, much like Jar Jar in starting the Clone Wars.

PING!

The Boilers face their toughest opponent of the Big Ten season with the dreaded Bye weekend, leaving me with a dearth of things to write about until Power Rankings come out on Monday. In an attempt to have some shallow analysis, let's break down bye week in the same style as every previous opponent.

What to fear from the bye week (Not what is seen on the left):

If this were the football team with its recent troubles I would fear them hanging out at Nick's, Harry's, the Neon Cactus, or any other West Lafayette watering hole. I am already slightly concerned after Crump and Green got into trouble out in Vegas and were forced to miss the Missouri State game. Fortunately we have two factors that allow us to avoid this: 1. West Lafayette is far from Vegas, and 2. The benefit of being a young team is they cannot legally get into these places yet. This, of course, did not stop Selwyn Lymon, but I would like to think this group of guys is smarter than that. Coach Painter is also a little harder on discipline than coach Tiller.

Bye weeks also lend themselves to the dreaded "dead hooker in the trunk" that has long been feared by the writer of this blog. Fortunately I have never seen a hooker in West Lafayette, but I may just not be looking in the right places.

Another thing to fear on a more serious level is that we cannot do anything of our own accord to maintain first place in the Big Ten short of a voodoo curse on Indiana or Wisconsin. It appears to be working in Indiana's case, however. We are completely at the mercy of Northwestern and Ohio State this weekend. Indiana will take care of themselves in the race if the following happens. Even Northwestern could get them without that many big names. Wisconsin is a different animal. They are facing an Ohio State team that is inching its way out of the NCAA field and could definitely use a big win at home over the Badgers to secure their place. Short of looking for mushroom clouds in the direction of Bloomington there isn't much we can do.

What not to fear from the bye week:

The bye week, when properly used, can be a great benefit to a team. I am actually glad we're utilizing it instead of playing a mid-conference game like Indiana and Northwestern have done. We've just come off of a particularly brutal stretch of games and can certainly use the time off to heal, work on shooting, and rebounding. It's not like we are suffering under the burden of a ton of injuries, but after 27 games guys are naturally banged up a little. This bye comes at the perfect time before we get into a stretch drive of games we will be favored in. We must stay focused on our goals of a Big Ten title and top four seed in the NCAA's. If we just win these next four games we will gather each.

Other topics:

It is February 22^nd and that means it is baseball season again! It certainly doesn't seem like it when I look outside and see 2 inches of snow on the ground, but today marks the first time there is a uniform start date for NCAA baseball teams. Because of my wife's influence I have become quite a collegiate baseball fan. We couldn't have two schools further apart in terms of baseball tradition though. Her Miami Hurricanes have won four national championships and are usually on the short list for a berth in Omaha each season. They have made the NCAA tournament a record 35 consecutive years and last year lost a regional for the first time in 11 years. Already the Canes carry a #10 ranking into the season, and we will be making our annual trip to Miami to see them April 2-9.

Purdue, meanwhile, has only been to one NCAA tournament (1987) and lost both games in that appearance. Their facilities are worse than many high school teams in Indiana (they don't even have lights!) and they are on a Chicago Cubs-level streak of suckiness by having not won a Big Ten championship since 1909. While the Mackey Arena project has already received $17 million in donations from just 9 private donors, the baseball program's Field of Dreams campaign has barely raised more than a $1 million of the $6-7 million it needs for a new field. By comparison, Alex Rodriguez, who never even attended the University of Miami, donated more than $3 million to the Mark Light Field renovation. We aren't even seeking a grandiose facility with locker rooms and concessions, just lights and a grandstand so we can host post-season games if necessary.

These two programs could not be farther apart. We cannot even raise enough money to get a field with lights so we could potentially host post-season events, while Miami is the definition of postseason baseball. The guys who play on the Purdue baseball team are among the most forgotten athletes at the school, but they still have played very well considering their circumstances of late. They have to begin each season with about a 25 game road trip. They can never get a quality opponent to come to West Lafayette. They can barely get anyone outside of the conference or smaller state schools to come play at Lambert Field. Still, they have had some bright spots. In 2001 they knocked off the #1 team in the country (Rice) to start the season, were ranked in the top 25 for a week, nearly won the Big Ten, and if not for a two and out performance in the Big Ten tournament probably would have made the NCAA tournament. Guys consistently get drafted and are doing well in the minors (Mitch Hilligoss), yet they do it in relative obscurity.

The reason for this long diatribe is that this new uniform start date is supposed to level the playing field. Before this season Miami used to open its campaign, at home, as early as late January while cold weather schools were forced to wait until mid- or late-February, go on the road for a month, then finally come home and still have several games moved around because of weather. This also meant warm-weather schools like Miami had to play only a handful of mid-week games, while northern schools would be playing four game, three day weekend series during the conference season plus several mid-week games to even schedules out.

There are both pros and cons to this. It helps a school like Purdue, and perhaps the entire Big Ten, become more competitive in what is rapidly growing into a revenue sport. It hurts warmer weather schools by taking away a major advantage they had by getting to play at home before many schools could even play period. It also pushes the end of the season back further, thereby hurting minor league baseball, specifically short season A-ball. This can hurt many of the summer leagues like the Cape Cod League that many players go to after the completion of their collegiate seasons. Still, this could be a benefit to Purdue in the long run.

The Boilers will open their season tonight 15^th-ranked Baylor. The season looks to be promising with several returning starters from a team that played well at times last year, but faded down the stretch. I always keep an eye on the baseball Boilers mostly out of curiosity. While in school I attended a game now and then, but with so few home games there simply weren't many opportunities. These guys deserve just as much support as the football or baseball guys because they work just as hard or harder. We're never going to get the 7,000+ fans and great atmosphere that Miami does for its big series, but we can have another winning team at Purdue. The Boilers only play 14 games this year before opening their home schedule on March 22^nd, and they even get a game against a team from the 2007 College World Series when they play at Louisville.

With the uniform start date Purdue can build a program if the support is there, so if you're a student head on out to Lambert Field on a spring afternoon the next time you see them playing. It has to be a good product if EA Sports made a video game about it! The field has never been more level for Boilermaker baseball, so hopefully 2008 can be a banner year for them.

Women's Sports notes:

I have barely mentioned the Boilermaker ladies here at Off the Tracks, but it is time to give them some love. Lately the women's programs have been more competitive on a national level than the men's programs. The women's soccer team was a legitimate national title contender before getting upset by Indiana in the NCAA's. The women's golf team was a national runner up last year. The women's basketball program is down a bit due to injuries, but they have long carried the banner of best Purdue team nationally. Women's volleyball has performed very well of late as well.

One of my astute loyal readers, Hassan Merhi, sent me a great article about the up and coming Purdue women's softball team. They too recently played nationally ranked Baylor and beat them on the way to winning the Getterman Classic in Waco, Texas last weekend. The Boilers are already 6-2 on the season, and the Big Ten has proven it can compete nationally with Michigan winning the 2006 national championship and Northwestern regularly making the Women's CWS. I am certainly in favor of anything that puts my alma mater in a positive light and won't limit my support of sports teams to just football and men's basketball. Softball was still a very new sport at Purdue when I was in school and they have never even sniffed the NCAA tournament, but if things continue this way Purdue could have one more thing to be proud of athletically in 2008.

Three Team Mexican Standoff

There is a reason Purdue has never won 6 straight conference road games even though we have the most Big Ten titles in conference history. It's damn hard to do. It's possible to string together a few wins against the bottom of the league as we have this year, but inevitably you will run into that other really, really good team and lose in their house. During our five game road winning streak we got fat off the bottom of the conference with wins at Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, and Illinois, but there was still the very good Wisconsin win in there. Last night our tendency to shoot poorly was finally our undoing. Even in that we still made a game of things, and I am confident that if there was a return match in West Lafayette we would win.

What we have now is a virtual dead heat for the Big Ten crown and number 1 seed that will even up once we pass our bye this weekend. In my mind all three teams are equal. How can you rank one ahead of the other when Purdue lost to Indiana, who lost to Wisconsin, who lost to Purdue? Even our other loss makes things even. Michigan State is not a bad loss, and the Spartans would be right in this mess as well if not for the losses to Penn State and Iowa. They may be out of it, but they will have a say with games against Wisconsin and Indiana the rest of the way. I'll get more into the rest of the season a little bit later, but let's take a closer look at last night's game.

Positives from the Indiana game:

Turnovers – While this is a huge positive, it also becomes a large source of frustration because were not able to build a big lead from these turnovers due to poor shooting. Indiana was clearly rattled at the start as even the sure-handed Gordon had five miscues. The good news is that if we continue to force 23 turnovers a game the rest of the season we will be in every game and probably win a bunch of them. We have to get better though at capitalizing on them and turning them into points.

Hummel and Martin – Hummel was his usual self, but I was very impressed by Martin's hustle and the way he was able to clean up messes around the basket. His ankle wasn't bothering him in the least and he did a nice job of showing no fear in the face of D.J. White. Unfortunately Scott had a horrible night at the free throw line. Robbie was the best shooter for us last night, but that really isn't saying much.

JuJuan Johnson – JuJuan was in foul trouble for a good portion of the night, but he played fairly well against White when he was in there. He continues to show glimpses of what he can be, and I am very excited to get another year of experience and a year in the weight room on him.

Defending Gordon – I'll give credit to Gordon. We defended him well and allowed him to only make four shots from the field. Great players find ways to get their points, however, and he got his from the free throw line. It's our fault for continuing to foul a great free throw shooter, but at least he wasn't nailing 3-pointers from Bedford.

Negatives from the Indiana game:

Field Goal shooting – This is just the first of what will be a big list of negatives since this is one of the worst games we have played in conference play. We went on the road, got more than 70 shots from the field, forced a ton of turnovers, but still lost by 9. It's not so much that we shot poorly, but we missed a bunch of easy ones as well. Green had a steal under the basket after a made basket in the second half but missed an easy one. Calasan was too strong on a number of lay-ups and putbacks. Open 3-pointers weren't falling. If we had just hit all of the easy ones we missed we win this game going away. If we can ever become a team that shoots just 10% better every game we will be very, very good. Poor shooting is the fire we have played with through most of the conference season, and last night we finally got burned.

Interior play – This has been the silent weakness for us for most of the season, but D.J. White exposed it in a big way last night. White was simply the man of the night with 19 points and 15 rebounds. Imagine if he had been totally healthy. We saw shades of this in the first Wisconsin game with Brian Butch had a field day in the second half, but we were able to survive it. We could not keep White off the offensive glass and he came down with every big defensive board he needed to. Fortunately we don't face a truly dominant big man except maybe Ohio State's Kosta Koufos the rest of the way.

Free throw shooting – This is another area where we are maddeningly inconsistent, but hopefully it will go away as this team matures more. We'll have one night where we shoot 85%, then another where we're back down around 50%. Indiana, in turn, turned this into a huge advantage. They only shot 13 more free throws, which is understandable for a team with a second half lead, but they only missed 4 and outscored us by 19 from the line. This cannot continue.

Surviving the little things – Much was made of Kyle "Frickin'" Tabor and his contributions last night, but to me the plays of the game were made by a guy I pointed out as dangerous in my preview: Lance Stemler. Stemler only attempted one shot and had three points, but his 3-pointer came at a critical juncture. It also came after he made a great hustle play for a block that erased a sure two points at our end of the floor. That was a five point shift and the 3-pointer is what put Indiana in the lead for good. These things get lost in the overall flow of the game, but last night this very small contribution turned out to be huge because it allowed Indiana to take a first half lead despite all the turnovers they were committing. It also allowed them to gain confidence, and they never looked back from there.

Rebounding – This is another glaring statistic. If you look at the Big Ten Conference rebounding statistics as a team we are not that separated from Indiana. It's only a 6 rebound per game edge, which is livable. We simply have to get better at rebounding the basketball, whether it is through recruiting or effort. Fortunately, I am very pleased by the fact that the two areas we need to work on, shooting and rebounding, are correctable and we're still 21-6 and in first place while doing both poorly.

Assists – This has been a huge plus for us all season, but last night we didn't share the basketball very well and it showed. It seemed we rushed too many shots. Of course, if we had hit more shots we naturally would have had more assists. Our ratio of assists to made baskets was still way down. We're not going to get many 3 for 15 nights from the floor for E'Twaun, so as he shoots better assists will go up.

Up next:

We head into our bye defeated, but with a chance to heal and improve in those two key areas. We also still control our own destiny for the conference title with two even teams. In the event of a three way tie we will get the number one seed based on having the best record in head-to-head competition between Indiana and Wisconsin. We would be 2-1 against those two, while Wisconsin would be 2-2 and Indiana 1-2. In a two-way tie we would lose to Indiana (going 0-1 against them), but win against Wisconsin (going 2-0 against them). Basically, if Wisconsin loses, we must have Indiana lose to get the number one seed. As long as we continue to win and Wisconsin does the same, we will be the number 1 seed in Indianapolis.

In our final four conference games we should be favored in at least three of them. Minnesota is a good team and is very well coached, but they have yet to break through against an elite team in the conference. Northwestern is Northwestern, but they have been playing better. I still expect a win over them in our final home game. Traveling to Ohio State could be tricky as they may be in full-fledged panic mode by that point and need a win to get off the bubble. Michigan scares me because they are playing their best basketball of the season, have nothing to lose, and could be on a seven game win streak by then. The bye will prepare us for this tough stretch of games.

In that time Wisconsin and Indiana will also continue to play, and must win their remaining games as well. Indiana probably has the hardest road with a road trip to Michigan State and home game against Ohio State. The Hoosiers will be favored heavily at Northwestern, Penn State, and Minnesota. Wisconsin as two potentially difficult road trips to Illinois and Ohio State in their next two before Michigan State comes to Madison. The Badgers then close with Penn State at home before going to Northwestern. If Wisconsin gets to those two games unscathed they should probably be considered "in the clubhouse" with the championship.

The important thing to remember is that this is just one loss. It is not a bad loss as Indiana is very good and certainly earned it. Winning a Big Ten championship and securing a top four seed in the NCAA tournament is still a strong possibility. We must continue to take the attitude of one game at a time, and simply enjoy some time off to rest before Minnesota comes to town. No matter what seed we get in the Big Ten tournament it is going to be tough with an expected final four of Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. If that happens, no seed will help or hurt either team. As long as we avoid the 4 seed, which we likely will, we don't have to face an Ohio State team fighting for a bid in the opening round. Things are still looking very, very good as long as we don't stumble in these last four games.

Holy War

It is a welcome site to see Indiana and Purdue play with so much on the line even with all the surrounding storylines. In reading this morning's game preview from the Indianapolis Star the players said all the right things, but with so many guys from the state of Indiana, and the fact they have clearly chosen sides in this fight, there will be more at stake than the perceived loyalties of the little-used Chad Sutor. For the fans, we have waited and waited for this moment. There is the vociferous minority on both sides that will trash the opposition regardless of who is in uniform. For the most part, however, Indiana fans respect the way our team plays and is coached, while Purdue fans respect the athleticism and heart of D.J. White and Eric Gordon. Indeed, many Indiana fans have even been hiding out on the Purdue boards since the Kelvin Sampson mess erupted.

What I wish for tonight is a close game that comes down to the wire and, at least for a couple of hours, shuts of the noise of the Kelvin Sampson situation. Because of the frosty relationship between the two, some speculated that Kelvin vs. Matt would become the new Bobby vs. Gene, but it looks like that will not happen now. The rebirth of this rivalry will be borne on the players themselves. If this is a mere one-year blip before Indiana suffers hard under the disciplinary hand of the NCAA then hopefully it will be a game that will be remembered for a long time. If it is that blip, hopefully Indiana will use it as a goal to get back to this level, much like Purdue has had to do since the rivalry began to fade in the late 90's

Indiana so far:

The word on the street is that Indiana's coach, Kelvin Sampson, may be under some NCAA scrutiny for impermissible phone calls, but that is neither here nor there. Seriously though, the mess happening in Bloomington has overshadowed what has been a pretty good season for the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers have just four losses on the season, but they are all to teams currently ranked in the top 13 in the country. Connecticut is currently 13^th, Xavier 12^th, and Wisconsin 10^th. While the losses have been to very impressive teams, the Hoosiers did not have a win over a ranked team until shellacking Michigan State this past Saturday night. Other than Connecticut and Xavier, the best non-conference opponent the Hoosiers have faced is either Illinois State or Kentucky.

To be fair, no one saw Kentucky falling into the abyss, so that is costing the Hoosiers of what would normally be a quality win. The same can be said for Southern Illinois, which came into the season as a top 15 team but has long since fallen apart. Had those two teams played to expectation Indiana would have had a very good non-conference schedule, and the win at Southern Illinois would certainly be considered a marquee win. Since the Salukis recently ended Drake's run at perfection in the Valley that win may gain some strength if Southern Illinois gets hot at Arch Madness. They are certainly more than capable of stealing that auto-bid and even doing some damage in the tournament itself. The same could possibly be said for Kentucky, but they have a much more difficult challenge in the SEC.

Who is dangerous for the Hoosiers:

The misconception about Indiana is that they begin and end with the duo of Gordon and White. Considering they are ranked 1-2 in the Big Ten in scoring and combine for nearly 39 points a game it's easy to focus on them. When you do, you forget about a very talented supporting cast that can contribute in key spots. Just ask Illinois. The Illini vilified Eric Gordon for 50 minutes in Champaign, but in the end it was Armon Bassett that knocked in 11 of his 16 points in the second overtime for the win. Bassett averages 10 points per game while Jordan Crawford is also in double figures at 10.2. Purdue cannot afford to forget players like Jamarcus Ellis and Lance Stemler.

I am especially leery of Stemler, as he is the type of player that gets lost for the majority of the game only to hit a crippling, back-breaker 3-pointer when Gordon dishes to him in the corner. I don't know what it is, but I hate this type of player, mostly because that's the kind of player I would be if I had any kind of consistent jump shot. It's a jealousy issue, I guess. Indiana is currently leading the Big Ten in scoring at more than 76 per game. They didn't get that high solely on the backs of Gordon and White. Players like Bassett, Crawford, Ellis, Stemler, and DeAndre Thomas are more than capable of helping those two out with the scoring load.

What not to fear from Indiana:

When my high school team was preparing to face Luke Recker and DeKalb in the 1997 Ft. Wayne Semi-State final we were very concerned with facing a scorer of Recker's caliber. In an interesting strategy, we chose to concentrate on the other four guys on the floor and didn't change our defense specifically for Recker. We got some help from a great night on the offensive end of the floor, but at the end of the night Recker had his typical 25-30 point night. It was enough that we won 69-46 to go on to the state finals. We knew he was not going to score 50 points to personally beat us against our base defense, and this is something the Boilers can carry over to tonight.

Both White (if he plays) and Gordon are going to get their points. When Indiana has struggled this year is when the supporting cast has not done much. Against Xavier the Hoosiers gave up 80 points and both Gordon and White only had 36. Against Wisconsin the first time the supporting cast did little of anything. The second time around Indiana was better as Bassett had 12, but other than that Indiana had little from anyone else. Against UConn it was both White and Gordon that struggled, while Bassett and Crawford still had solid games.

Across the board statistically Indiana is very good. They rank near the top of the Big Ten in nearly category, as is expected from a 21-4 team. Their defensive numbers aren't that great, and teams can rebound well against them, but these are deficiencies that are easily overshadowed when you lead the league in scoring. About the only offensive weakness is the turnover category. Indiana ranks ahead of all the conference leaders except Michigan State in this category. Since the Purdue defense thrives on creating turnovers this will be a key area. I wouldn't be too concerned about Purdue not having a good turnover day in Evanston. Despite not having won a conference game the Wildcats are actually the best team in the league at taking care of the ball.

General Outlook:

So much of this game seems to hinge on whether D.J. White will play or not. If he does not play Indiana will lose a serious advantage in the paint when it comes to both scoring and rebounding. If he does play he will likely be limited both in his minutes as well as his effectiveness on the court. Playing a hampered D.J. White could even put Indiana at even more of a disadvantage depending on how effective he is. Sampson seems to think he will play and he is a tough kid, so I would be more surprised if he did not play at this point because of how big of a game it is.

The second point is obviously the looming distraction of the Kelvin Sampson situation. All signs certainly seem to be pointing towards this game as Sampson's last on the bench for some time, if not ever for Indiana. He obviously is a good coach and his players have a great rapport with him. Though they are saying all the right things about it not being a distraction and everything, it has still been a very long week in Bloomington for all parties involved. We cannot discount the, "win one for coach," factor.

It is a testament to what we have accomplished that many feel we should be able to win this game regardless of if White plays. With the poise that Purdue has shown in every road venue this season (the final seven minutes at Missouri aside) I would be absolutely shocked if they faded in the heat of Assembly Hall. There will be heat too, as the Indiana fans and students will be ready for something other than off the court news to talk about. They are always ready when Purdue comes to town, just as we are always ready when they come to West Lafayette. It should be a fantastic atmosphere for a college basketball game tonight.

I would love to see a game much like the 1997 game won by Purdue 89-87. I want to see both teams fighting hard and leaving everything on the floor. For Indiana, they need this a little more than us. We are still in the hunt for the Big Ten title and coveted #1 seed in the Big Ten tourney if we lose. If Indiana loses, they would be two games behind us in the loss column while we would only have four games (three in which we would be heavily favored) to play. Not only that, they would be a game behind Wisconsin as well, and not have the tiebreaker with either of us. This is Indiana's game for the Big Ten, while history is against us in that we have never won six straight road conference games.

I honestly feel if we don't change our defensive philosophy to specifically counter Gordon and White we will have a chance. When Chris Kramer got hurt near the end of the Northwestern game I was scared because I knew we would be sticking him on Gordon. Ever since he eliminated Drew Neitzel in the Michigan State game I have wanted to see him against Gordon. This also frees us for help down low when D.J. White has the ball. If Kramer can just slow Gordon (he won't stop him entirely) our chances of winning will greatly increase. Everyone else must do their jobs defensively against the other players and help on White.

Offensively I expect more of the same from us. Indiana is not as stout defensively as a team like Michigan State and Wisconsin, so we should be able to score on them. Gordon is an especially good defender one-on-one, so expect him to be on whoever has the hot hand for us. We must continue to play team-oriented basketball on the offensive end, and we cannot be afraid to attack inside against White if he plays. Kramer set the tone early last year when he drove against White without fear and he got into the big man's head. Finally, I hope we have good officiating both ways. It would be a shame for this game to be decided either way by the officials. Let the kids play and decide the game.

I expect a very close, hard fought contest with neither team backing down. Purdue certainly has a very good chance to win, but many times these two teams have been evenly matched and the home team has been able to win in the end. I can see it happening tonight, but again, I hope I am proven wrong. Indiana has a lot of emotion in their corner and D.J. White looks like he will play. If he doesn't play, this prediction is officially off. Indiana 71, Purdue 70.

Clearing a path (with Power Rankings)

It seems as if the IU game has been far off in the distance for a long time. It is bad enough we only get to play the Hoosiers once this year, but the wait is almost interminable having to play 26 other games before them. In this case, however, it may be a good thing. Back in November Indiana was going to be an automatic loss for a team that would struggle to sneak into the NCAA's. Playing them once was viewed as a blessing since we would need every win we could. Since we have started winning and continued to win as the Big Ten season has progressed the scope of this game has become larger and larger. Now it is shaping up to be the Big Ten game of the year. A Boilermaker win clears a path where we could only need four wins in two games to lock up a Big Ten championship and #1 seed in the conference tournament. In that scenario we would need the help of someone else knocking off Wisconsin, but at the very least we would be all alone in controlling our own destiny. A loss pulls us back into a tie with the Badgers and Hoosiers, meaning every game the rest of the way would count for all parties involved.

It has indeed been a long wait, but it is finally here. Tomorrow I will do a more in depth preview of the Hoosiers. I am holding off until I get more information on the D.J. White injury and whether he will play or not. Saturday afternoon we cleared the final hurdle for what will be a return to the classic IU-Purdue rivalry by taking care of business once again on the road. Even though it was just Northwestern, getting a road win is still a big deal to this team. We had four road wins in four years combined before this season, now we have five this year alone, and will need at least two more to secure the conference.

Positives from the Northwestern game:

E'Twaun Moore – All we have heard all season is Eric Gordon this and Eric Gordon that. E'Twaun is growing into a very good player in his own right, and I need only post the following as a reminder of the last time the two shared a court on opposite teams. East Chicago made life very difficult for Gordon in that game, and if D.J. White cannot go tomorrow night we could see a repeat in Bloomington. Just because E'Twaun was the man on Saturday doesn't mean he will be Tuesday night, but he had a pretty good audition in the final tune-up. Who doesn't want to see him and Gordon have a classic scorer's duel one more time?

Keaton Grant – Keaton played probably his best game in weeks. His back-to-back 3-pointers when Northwestern had made a game of it were absolutely crippling and propelled us off on a lethal finishing kick. It is good Keaton is finding his shot again, especially from long range. Lately he has had some very ugly looking 3-point attempts. He also did a very nice job on the glass pulling down seven boards, though Northwestern never seemed to show even an interest in rebounding.

Team Assists – I love that we continue to keep this total high in conjunction with the number of made field goal attempts. Kramer led the march of dimes with eight and had a very good game distributing the ball. We will likely be using him on Gordon Tuesday night, so hopefully he can save something for the offensive end and continue to get his teammates the ball. Robbie also had a good game in this regard. He stepped back a bit with just nine assists, but five assists from him in addition to whatever he scores is a huge plus. It's nice to see him be just a role player a little ahead of schedule, isn't it Terry Hutchens?

Field Goal shooting – 57.8%. I would have to do some checking, but I think that is the best we have shot from the field percentage-wise all season long. Everyone shot the ball fairly well and we were very efficient in terms of getting open looks and knocking them down. I'm not quite sure what we shot down the stretch, but it had to be a pretty good number considering we closed on a 23-6 run. If we continue to shoot this will on Tuesday we will do very well.

Rebounding – Again, it was only Northwestern, but we completely dominated the glass. Sometimes it can be a mental thing and you just need to see the statistics of doubling up an opponent in rebounding. I only got to see about the last 8 minutes or so of the game, but it seemed like Northwestern doesn't even try to crash the glass. That's fine if you shoot 70% and your opponent shoots 30%, but it does not work for the Wildcats.

Negatives from the Northwestern game:

Turnovers – It is a positive that we played a bad game for 30 minutes and still had the ability to just crush a team in the final 10, but we must limit our turnovers against Indiana. I will give credit to Northwestern in that they may have played their best game of the season. We seemed to get a little frustrated with their 1-3-1 early on and turning the ball over 10 times more than your opponent will keep any team in the game. It is one of the rare times we have not taken care of the basketball this season and in turn haven't caused a ton of turnovers. We can get away with against Northwestern, but not Indiana.

Bench play – During our 11 game winning streak we have gotten solid play from our bench. Saturday in Evanston the bench played decently, but it was still subpar compared to what we have seen in the past. Crump's numbers continue to fall off as he only played 7 minutes Saturday. JuJuan played 10 minutes, but gave virtually nothing. Combined with Calasan (who did start) we had another game of nothing in the post and those two will need a better game against D.J. White if he plays. Green and Martin did well, but were not stellar. At least the scrubs got a minute of play at the end.

Up next:

I am not going to split hairs about a 15 point road win against the last place team in the conference. The bottom line is that we struggled for 30 minutes against their funky style of play, then, once we figured it out we put them away. We played poorly and still won by 15, while Northwestern played one of their best games of the season and still lost by 15. That is simply the difference between a first place team and a last place team. When the rematch in West Lafayette comes around we likely will perform better having seen their offense once. A chance to clinch the Big Ten could be on the line, plus I will be in the audience, therefore we have nothing to fear.

We can now turn our attention to Indiana. Even if we lose we are still in good shape. I am a little concerned with the way they dispatched Michigan State, especially without D.J. White for most of the game. Still, we got in White's head last year in West Lafayette. It will be a tough game to win regardless of if he plays anyway, so one player will not make or break them. A loss would put us at two losses, but because of tiebreakers we would still be in good shape for the #1 seed in the Big Ten tourney. Should Indiana, Purdue, and Wisconsin all tie at 16-2 (very possible) we would have the #1 seed based on better head-to-head record among the three. We would be 2-1, while Wisconsin would be 2-2 and Indiana would be 1-2. Beating Indiana all but locks up the number 1 seed for us, as we would need to lose two of our last four to not get it. Even then Wisconsin would have to win the rest of its games.

Power Rankings:

This week's Power Rankings carry with them the theme of expectations and goals. Every team has high ones coming into the season, but at this point some need to be readjusted. As I rank the teams this week I will try to project where they will try to project realistic goals of where said team should finish the year.

1. (1) Purdue (21-5, 12-1) Projection: Big Ten Champ, NCAA Sweet 16 – These are very reasonable goals at this point for the Boilers. Winning four of the last five will clinch the first part of that, and likely a top four seed in the NCAA's. After that, who knows? Depending on the draw I can definitely see Purdue getting as far as the second weekend. If they continue to play well going even further is possible.


2. (3) Wisconsin (21-4, 11-2) Projection: Big Ten Champ (if Purdue loses), NCAA Sweet 16 – Until Tuesday night Wisconsin moves ahead of Indiana based on association. They swept IU, but Purdue swept them making for a clean 1-2-3 at the moment. I almost view Purdue and Wisky as equal right now, and I certainly want no part of them anymore this year. Should the Badgers get past Michigan State and a potentially tricky trip to Champaign this week they could just be waiting for the Boilers to stumble to grab a share of the Big Ten. The sweet 16 is also very reasonable for them.


3. (2) Indiana (21-4, 10-2) Projection: Big Ten runner-up, NCAA Sweet 16 – Things are very shaky right now in Bloomington to say the least, but they should clear after this week. If the Hoosiers drop the Purdue game they can likely kiss the Big Ten goodbye. Making the sweet 16 is possible, but they will need a healthy D.J. White. If White and Gordon are both on this team can beat anyone in America, but they have struggled against good teams all year. The coaching situation is certainly a circus.


4. (4) Michigan State (20-5, 8-4) Projection: 4^th place Big Ten finish, NCAA 2^nd round – Michigan State is a very good team, but they are really beginning to look like a first weekend victim more and more. Going 0-for-Indiana has eliminated them from the Big Ten title discussion, but they can still ruin Wisconsin and Indiana's hopes. They have more than enough talent and coaching experience to do plenty of damage in the NCAA's.


5. (5) Ohio State (17-9, 8-5) Projection: 5^th place, NCAA team – The Buckeyes were securely in the field for most of the season, but losses to Iowa and Michigan recently have them squarely on the bubble right now. Four of their final five games are against the top four in the conference. Losing all four would put them at 18-13 and 9-9 in the Big Ten. They have a very solid non-conference profile and I'll give them kudos for going to Butler, but they are in severe danger right now and need to win at least one of those four.


6. (6) Minnesota (15-9, 5-7) Projection: 6^th place, NIT team – Last week I said the Gophers had a realistic chance of making the NCAA's but would need to finish strong. That chance is now gone after getting killed by Illinois at home. The Gophers gave Wisconsin a scare in Madison on Saturday, but unless they win their final six games or the Big Ten tournament they are done. Playing at Indiana and at Purdue is too much to ask.


7. (10) Michigan (8-17, 4-9) Projection: 7^th place finish, Big Ten tourney irritant – The overall record is still terrible, but I will give some love to the Wolverines for winning three straight and being more consistent recently than the rest of the bottom. Michigan is playing very well right now and I certainly do not want to go to Ann Arbor on the last day of the regular season with anything on the line. It is entirely possible they could be on a seven game winning streak by them.


8. (8) Penn State (12-12, 4-8) Projection: 6-7 Big Ten wins, possible NIT – With a one point win at home against Illinois the Nittany Lions swept the Illini and stayed alive for the NIT. Penn State will be at .500 with a split of its final six games, but would need two wins in Indy to get NIT eligible. Can they do it?


9. (9) Illinois (11-15, 3-10) Projection: Big Ten irritant in both reg. season and tourney – If there is one team at the bottom capable of getting hot for four days in Indianapolis and stealing the automatic bid it is Illinois. They would be solidly in the NCAA's if they could simply hit free throws, so if they figure it out for a week then watch out. I am hoping they at least put it all together for the home game this week against Wisconsin.


10. (7) Iowa (11-15, 4-9) Projection: at least they aren't Northwestern – With visions of an NIT bid dancing in their heads after an upset of Ohio State the Hawks promptly lost games to Michigan and Minnesota. They threatened Wisconsin, but couldn't pull the upset. Now they have the dreaded curse of being Northwestern's best shot at a win.


11. (11) Northwestern (7-16, 0-12) Projection: last place. Goal: win a game – Northwestern certainly had my attention around 5:30 Saturday afternoon. It's unfortunate that if you had spotted them a 10 point lead to start each game they would still be winless in conference play. Any win at this point has to be considered a huge bonus, and Iowa on the last day of the season is the best shot.

A nice, quiet, business-like performance

Could we possibly have any better scenario before facing Indiana in what is amounting to a Holy War on Tuesday night? Let's look at what both teams have to face before the game. Purdue has a nice, leisurely bus ride up I-65 after a week of normal practice. We get to get away from all the hype on campus and focus on beating an opponent we should beat. We've had a few days to heal some injuries, relax, and enjoy being in first place. We'll also have a nice delegation of Purdue students and fans following the team up for a rare home away from home atmosphere. We're playing the last place team in the league that has lost every conference game they have played by at least 10 points. As far as late season conference road trips, it doesn't get any easier than this, and a business-like performance should net another win in the standings.

Indiana, however, has had to weather a media firestorm for the past three days, and it is only going to get worse. They have the advantage of being at home through all this mess for three games, but it also means they cannot escape all the media hype descending upon Bloomington. They lost a close game Wednesday to a physical Wisconsin team that put them back in the conference standings, and they still must face another very good and physical Michigan State team that is in desperate need of a win to keep its fleeting conference championship hopes alive. There is a strong possibility that by the time Tuesday night rolls around Indiana will either be fired up to vindicate themselves and have something positive happen, or too beaten down to do anything. As a Purdue fan, you cannot ask for an easier Saturday game or a worse situation for your next opponent to be facing. As a sign of matters getting worse, the Hoosier Report posted what amounts to a smoking gun this morning.

For Purdue though, all we can really do at the moment is focus on Northwestern. If we take our eyes off of them and start looking ahead to Bloomington we very well could lose. We cannot be distracted by the storm clouds forming off to the south. Northwestern is a game we should win easily. Despite that, the game counts the exact same amount in the standings as our previous wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. I do welcome it as a brief break in a critical stretch of games.

Northwestern so far:

Among the six BCS conferences Northwestern is the only team that has never made the NCAA tournament for basketball. That will not change this year unless they make an absolute miracle run in the Big Ten Tournament. Both their women's and men's teams are currently winless in Big Ten play, and the Wildcats are alone with just Oregon State as far as being a major conference team that is winless in its conference this season. In short, this is bad even by Northwestern standards.

Of the seven wins Northwestern has the best is probably a 65-63 win at Western Michigan in December. That win was the second in a four game mid-December winning streak that is the highlight of the season so far. The other six wins have come against non-D1 Benedictine, Savannah State, Arkansas State, Howard, Chicago State, and Texas Pan-American. Three of those teams (Chicago State, Savannah State, Texas Pan-Am) are the forgotten children of Division 1 as Independents, so it's not as if Northwestern has faced a murderer's row of opponents. Maybe Northwestern's best effort came all the way back in the season opener when Stanford, currently ranked 7^th at 20-4, came to Evanston to match SAT scores. The Wildcats played the Cardinal to an 11 point game and were actually tied with 10 minutes to go, so they do have some fight in them.

Who is dangerous for the Wildcats:

Kevin Coble has been a very nice story for the Wildcats. After taking the first nine games of the season off to help is mother battle cancer he has returned to lead the Wildcats in scoring at 15.5 points per game. He's a versatile player at 6'8" 190 lbs. that has had some very big games for the Wildcats. Against Michigan earlier this year He shot 14 for 18 from the field on his way to a 34 point night against the Wolverines, but they still lost by 10. In his last game Ohio State limited him to just four points in 36 minutes. In their Princeton-style offense he is very good at backdoor cuts plus he can shoot the 3-pointer. As a team Northwestern does shoot the 3-pointer very well, hitting just over 36% of their shots from long range.

Guards Craig Moore and Michael Thompson are also averaging in double figures for the Wildcats. Moore is a saavy player that is in his third year in the system at Northwestern, while Thompson is a very promising freshman. Thompson is the team's leader in assists at 4.6 per game. This is key since the style of offense lends itself to high assist totals. Outside of these three guys there isn't a ton of scoring, but that is to be expected since the Wildcats often post low offensive numbers.

What not to fear from Northwestern:

If we cannot outrebound this team we have serious problems. We currently sit 10^th in the league in rebounding a 36 per game. As bad as that is, there is still only a 6 rebound between us in 10^th place and Michigan State in first place. Sitting in 11^th is Northwestern at a dismal 27.3 boards per game. This is a team that has shown consistently that they cannot rebound while we have at least been up and down in that department. Our effort against Michigan State was much better, and we should be dominant on the glass on Saturday. As bad as they are rebounding they are even worse on the offensive glass. At little more than 6 offensive rebounds per game the offer themselves very few second chances.

Surprisingly Northwestern is not the lowest scoring team in the league. Iowa currently holds that honor well behind the Wildcats by more than 7 points per game. Defensively it is another story, however, as Northwestern gives up more points per game than everyone except Michigan. They also have the worst field goal shooting defense in the league, allowing their opponents to hit almost 50% of their shots.

General Outlook:

We have continued to win game after game when we haven't shot the ball well or rebounded well. Neither of those two should be a problem on Saturday. Honestly our only concern should be not falling asleep against the Princeton offense. Chris Kramer said this week that their offense works entirely opposite of our defensive principles, so this could be a cause for concern. While we have been a good defensive team so far, we must hold our concentration against an offense that is built around working the shot clock and waiting for a small lapse before striking. We have not seen anything like this all season and won't until we play them again in Mackey Arena, so we must be on guard.

Of course, the same is true for every other Big Ten team the Wildcats have faced this year and they have been handled easily. This is the type of game where, if we are indeed the best team in the Big Ten, we also should have no problem coming up with the win. We simply are too disciplined and too talented to drop a game like this unless we just completely take the day off. We may struggle early as we figure out their offense, but it should be smooth sailing.

Patience will be a big key in this one, both on the offensive and defensive end. Northwestern is a team that can turn two of our weaknesses (rebounding and shooting) into strengths, so logic dictates that if we can continue being strong in the aspects of our game that have been strong we should win in a walk. We need to have an attitude of taking care of business. This game counts just as much as the Indiana game, and since it is first it needs our total attention. I know coach Painter will stress this, but it is very hard not to look at their record and already chalk up a win.

I am also excited at the return of Scott Martin, and I am glad he gets a game to get his feet back under him before the showdown in Bloomington. It also allows us to get back into our rotations and allow him to work his way back into the flow of the offense. Finally, if things go as expected we should be able to get a few minutes for the bench guys of Reid, Sutor, Riddell, Mocas, and Wohlford. It's not much, but every minute of live action these guys see, no matter how meaningless, is important. You never know when you'll need one of them to do something in a big game even if only for a few possessions. I'd rather have them ready than not. Unless we completely fall apart, we will win big. Purdue 74, Northwestern 58

Finally today, I post a question based on my review of the Michigan State game. Specifically, this regards the comment about Robbie Hummel and the current Boiler basketball team reaching dead hooker in the truck status. I was having lunch today with a good friend and fellow Boilermaker alum who regularly reads the blog here. He posed a question in regards to Drew Brees being allowed two dead hookers. Is he allowed two at one time or two separate incidents, and which is worse? We both agreed two separate incidents is worse and needs more leeway since the person in question wouldn't have learned from the first one. Maybe my friends at Boiled Sports have other thoughts on this, but I propose the following in terms of needing the most leeway to least:

1. Two separate instances of one dead hooker in the trunk (If Purdue wins an NCAA basketball title)
2. One instance of two dead hookers in the trunk (Drew Brees level)
3. One instance of one dead hooker in the trunk (current Purdue basketball level)

Also, would there be different levels right now since it is a team honor? Is Hummel allowed a high class hooker while a player not playing as well, like Crump, can only be allowed a common crack whore? So many tough questions. I hope you had a laugh this Friday afternoon.

Return of the Roundtable

It's been awhile since we've had a roundtable here, but even though they stole Roy Roundtree from us I'll still forgive Maize N' Brew for it. Dave has been wonderful enough to host a post signing day roundtable on the subject, and in an effort to stave off boredom at work this afternoon the good folks here at Off the Tracks (me) is happy to participate.

1. As a general question, evaluate your recruiting class. Is it more or less what you expected, were you pleasantly surprised or horribly, horribly disappointed? Were your team's needs adequately addressed or will you be starting a two star running back at center next year?

I would probably best describe this class as underwhelming and developmental. A program like Purdue very rarely gets an impact true freshman that comes in and sets the world on fire in his first year. Most guys come to Purdue and redshirt before they see the field. There are a few exceptions like Dorien Bryant that get on the field immediately and contribute, but for the most part we get guys in and develop them. When you're getting mostly 2-3 stars guys every year that is simply something you have to do, and I feel coach Tiller and company have done a very good job of doing just that. We have several 2-3 star recruits getting paid very well right now in the NFL.

The other side of the issue tough is that we have probably leveled off as a program. You can't take the next step and compete for championships without better guys. The few 4 and 5 star guys we have gotten recently have, for the most part, not worked out. Our class obviously took a big hit by losing two four stars right at the end. These are the types of guys that can make an impact instantly at a school like Purdue, but for some reason they decided to go elsewhere where they probably won't see the field for a year or two. Allegedly new coach Danny Hope is a good recruiter. He was involved in some of our better classes earlier this decade as an assistant coach. We'll have to wait until February 2009 to find out.

2. Who were the big catches in your recruiting class? Name two players matriculating to your school whose existence everyone else in the Big Ten will curse for the next four years.

I am really excited about the only 4 star guy we got in Ken Plue. He's 6'8" and 360+, so if he can actually play a bit we can stick him on the offensive line and only have to worry about finding four starters for the next four years. He will battle for a starting spot this coming season at either tackle or guard and he is already on campus getting affiliated with the program. I am a big fan of getting kids in early for spring practice because it gives them extra time to learn the system. Of course, Brandon Hance did this and had a redshirt year behind Brees. Look how that turned out.

I am also very excited to see what Jordan Brewer is going to do as well. He is the only kid I have seen play in person so far, but he reminded me quite a bit of Dustin Keller with his abilities. I can only hope he has Keller's work ethic, because if he does he will be a great tight end. He is a power forward for the Carmel High basketball team right now and they are currently ranked second in the state. The best tight ends are former basketball players because they know how to box out and use their bodies to seal guys off. Brewer has this ability, so he could be a good one.

3. You can't win them all. Maybe some slick talking carpetbagger schmoozed his way into your living room, sold you a set of ginzu knives made out of tin foil, and walked off with your wife and your star recruit. Perhaps an in-state lock who grew up with [Insert University Here] posters on his wall and your coach's face tattooed on his arm decided to go elsewhere for reasons no one seems to understand? Did your recruiting class lose someone big on signing day, who was it, and was your school able to yoink someone else to cover his loss?

Roy Roundtree and Jerico Nelson. Losing Nelson wasn't as bad because he was from SEC country and I was honestly surprised we had him for the short time we did. The loss of Roundtree hurts though because of the way we lost him. The details have already been well documented, so I won't go into them here, but it was indeed very frustrating to have this kid for months as a solid commit only to lose him on the morning of signing day. It's ultimately his choice, and I recognize it happens all the time, but it still sucks.

As far as yoinking someone else we didn't have time to do so, unless we can still talk to the infamous Terrelle Pryor at the 14^th hour here.

4. There's been a spirited debate about this whole "Coaches' Code" among the members of the Big Ten coaching fraternity. Do you believe this exists or is it a line being floated by the guys who couldn't keep their recruiting classes together? Bonus points for declaring your coach a poacher or a poachee in creative fashion!

I think there has been a code in the Big Ten for awhile, but much like many other unspoken rules they are broken repeatedly. I don't put much stock into it because until the NCAA does something about it, it is fair game. I know many people outside of the Purdue program have mentioned that Tiller has been a poacher in the past, specifically with Brian Hare. I honestly think most Purdue fans are making way too big of a deal about this and are really selling short the 25 kids we did sign. If one guy is going to make or break your entire program then you have more problems than losing him. I think we'll be just fine from this.

5. Finally, who's the slickest, smoovest, most Billy Dee Williamsesque recruiter in the Big Ten? Who's the worst, most incompetent, "trip over the flat tire on his Yugo" recruiter in the Big Ten?

I've gotta give the honor of best recruiter to Ron Zook over at Illinois. If he's clean, the he could sell a box of condoms to a bunch of nuns. How he has gotten so much talent to come to Champaign is a mystery to me. That program was going nowhere fast except for the unexplained blip of a Big Ten title season in 2001. Now he has them in a Rose Bowl and big time recruits are beating down the doors. The dude is good, I'll give him that. He even proved he can coach a little this year too.

As far as worst recruiter, I would honestly have to go with Tiller. Indiana has a built in excuse of being a terrible football school historically. While an Insight Bowl bid is great, I don't think College GameDay is making football reservations for Bloomington anytime soon. Northwestern has consistently low classes, but I will give the coaching staff in Evanston all the credit in the world for getting what they get out of guys with the academic standards the school has. Everyone else recently has had either a really good class or a breakthrough season within the past few years except Purdue.

As I mentioned above, I do not fault Tiller as a developer of talent. I think he's one of the best guys in the Big Ten at that. But as far as the actual recruiting process goes he is terrible. We always here excuse after excuse of why guys won't come to West Lafayette, but it's not like places like Iowa City and South Bend are fantastic vacation destinations. We have better facilities than we have ever had in West Lafayette, but our classes have gotten progressively worse since the first years Joe was in West Lafayette. Fortunately, we now have an incomplete grade at best when it comes to recruiting, and Danny Hope can change that.

Two team race

Robbie Hummel, and perhaps this entire Purdue Boilermaker basketball team, has reached dead hooker in the trunk status. Please allow me to explain. This is an honor I bestow on individual players that, because of their accomplishments, they reach a rare level of love from their fans. Basically, the athlete in question becomes so well-loved by his or her community that they could be caught with a dead hooker in the trunk of their car and the fans would be like, "Now you really shouldn't have done that, but we're going to let it slide. Just don't do it again." Reggie Miller reached this stage in his career with the Pacers. Peyton Manning reached it last year in Indianapolis after winning the Super Bowl. As a Purdue example, Drew Brees reached this level when he took us to the Rose Bowl, and after his $2 million gift last season he's now allowed two dead hookers in his trunk. Last night Robbie Hummel and the Boilers (they are no longer babies by a longshot) reached this level. Robbie is probably slightly above everyone else at the moment, but there is no word on if he will try to cross the Wabash today without the aid of a bridge or boat.

What else can you say about this team? I honestly felt before the season we could be a 20 win team and make the NCAA's. Even after the Wofford and Iowa State losses I kept the faith and said 11 Big Ten wins would be reasonable and, because that would get us to the magical 20 win plateau, we would go dancing. I even maintained my much changed tier system to outline exactly what was needed to make it happen. I honestly did not expect what has occurred. I did not expect to be 3 points away from an undefeated Big Ten record after 12 games, and those three points could have been made up had Hummel not been sick. This is now a two-team race at the moment, and the other team that controls their own destiny was just rocked by a recruiting scandal that will certainly hang over them for the rest of the season.

I keep thinking I am living in a dream. During my four years at Purdue I got season tickets each year. As a freshman we squeezed into the tournament when we probably shouldn't have. We were the consensus "last team in" but made the most of that #10 seed by upsetting Texas and Miami (FL) for a surprising run to the sweet 16. As a sophomore a group of five seniors very nearly took us to the Final Four as we beat Dayton, #3 Oklahoma, and Gonzaga along the way. I was devastated when a loss to #8 seeded Wisconsin meant no Final Four for me, since it was just down the road in Indianapolis. By the time I started getting good seats as a junior and senior we were on the downswing. As a junior injuries to Rodney Smith and John Allison meant an NIT bid, but we at least made the final 8 there. As a senior I finally had great seats in the 3^rd row, but we also had no IU home game and stumbled to a 13-18 record, our worst season in 20 years. I remember senior day that year against lowly Penn State. My roommate and I went because we had paid for the tickets, but there may have been 100 students at best in the stands. This wasn't even the low point.

Somehow things got worse, but now we're back. After watching the tape of last night's game I was so excited I could barely sleep last night. I wasted little time this morning in ordering tickets to the Northwestern game because with wins against the Wildcats and IU in the next week could mean a Big Ten clinching game against the worst team in the league. I've already seen this team once in person, and if it weren't for a potential move and a ton of driving in the winter I would be considering season tickets for next year. This team's energy is infectious, and absolutely nothing would surprise me at this point. We can play with any team in the country right now, just as we proved last year when we took the eventual national champs to the wire.

Positives from the Michigan State game:

The crowd – I haven't said enough about the fans this season, but they were great last night. I fully expect the last two games against Minnesota and Northwestern to sell out, so I am glad I got my nosebleed seats for the Northwestern game now. I simply have to see this rocking Mackey atmosphere again because I got a little gypped as a student. With two shot clock violations in the first three possessions the crowd got into even more of a frenzy early, and you could almost see the collective "oh shit" faces on all of the Spartan players. I'll give credit to them for fighting back, but the crowd overwhelmed them in the first half.

Robbie Hummel – I'm still waiting for an apology from Terry Hutchens on saying he won't be an impact player. He could probably play in a wheelchair against Northwestern and still rack up back-to-back player of the week honors. Robbie gave every ounce of himself into that game last night. Even at the end when he was exhausted he still stepped up and hit not one, but two critical shots to close the game out. His hustle plays defined the game. There are simply too many to list here, but the play where he followed his own miss of a 3-pointer with a putback and his save-get open-3 combo really stood out. There is no question in my mind the game in East Lansing would have been different if he had been well.

Chris Kramer – Take notes, Eric Gordon. Kramer barely let Drew Neitzel breathe last night without his permission. If not for some free throws at the end when we committed some dumb fouls Neitzel would have been even less of a factor. Kramer's defensive effort last night was nothing short of masterful against one of the most experienced shooters in the entire league. Sure, he didn't come up with the performance on the offensive end that he did in East Lansing, but the four points Chris did score were huge. His drive to the basket with 2:34 left and a 1-point lead was absolutely critical. Watching him face off against Gordon will be fun to watch. Let's see Gordon score all those points with 5 steals, 5 assists, and 2 blocks.

Rebounding – This was a major point of emphasis and the team responded. I still would like to see us rebound even better, but that will come with time and effort. In listening to the pregame show on the radio Coach Painter talked about how this group of guys really listens in team meetings. Instead of looking at the floor they are almost always dialed in to what he is saying and are very eager to learn. It is clear they listened when it came to rebounding before this game because the effort was much better.

Team defense – Hold on, I think Michigan State just turned the ball over again. I love teams that get things done with defense, and we were ready to go from the beginning last night by forcing a shot clock violation on the first possession. That set the tone for the evening. It is easy to win when you force 17 turnovers and get nine steals. By comparison the high school game I covered last night between two good teams had 16 turnovers combined. That shows how rattled Michigan State was.

Negatives from the Michigan State game:

Defending Kalin Lucas – Kalin, my advice to you is to please go to the NBA early. Go make some millions. In two games against us he has scored 36 points off the bench on 13 of 19 shooting. He is also 10 of 12 from the line and has been a nightmare for us each time. He's also only a freshman, so we will be seeing him for awhile unless he heeds my advice. This kid is a gamer, and Michigan State has to be very excited about him. He's one of those guys that is almost better coming off the bench.

Shot Selection – I felt there were too many times last night where we settled for the 3-pointer. We got some good looks but they just weren't falling. Ironically our most contested shots, like E'Twaun's from the left elbow, were the ones that were dropping. It's almost like we were going for the big blow while Michigan State was making its comeback instead of being patient and attacking the basket. We keep winning games while shooting 40% or worse, but it will come back to bite us. Larry Clisby pointed out that the reason we're winning is defense and turnovers, so imagine how much better we would be if we could start shooting better.

Post play – The rebounding was better, but I still think we need more scoring in the paint from Calasan and Johnson. Johnson will develop in time and I am very pleased with what he has done so far, but we need Calasan to be more consistent on the low block. I do like how he draws defenders out though and opens the lane up for the drives. We just weren't taking that very often last night, but we had success when we did. Green's dunk in traffic and Kramer's key basket and a foul at the end are examples.

Up next:

Since I am not part of the team I can say this, but we get a bit of break by traveling to Northwestern on Saturday. We get what should be a relatively easy game while Indiana has not one, but two wars to fight before they get to us. The Hoosiers may not have a ton left in the tank after facing Wisconsin and Michigan State back-to-back, plus dealing with all of the news about their NCAA investigations. Still, it is a rivalry game, and the Hoosiers are always ready for us.

We can't look past Northwestern though. That game counts just as much in the standings as the IU game. We should be able to win going away since they have lost every game in conference play by more than 10 points, but any time you underestimate a team they can beat you. I trust that the guys will take this game seriously and take care of business. As long as we win I don't care by how much we win because any road win in this conference is a good one.

That being said, I don't really expect any problems on Saturday. Indiana is certainly not counting on us dropping a game to Northwestern, and should we lose it would be a major step back after a number of positive steps forward. Indiana has a ton of things to deal with right now both on and off the court, while we simply have one game against the league's worst team to focus on before the biggest IU-Purdue game in years. I honestly would like to see them win tonight against Wisconsin, then lose to Michigan State. Assuming we beat Northwestern, we would then have a chance to take a two game lead on the entire conference with four games to play, plus we would own tiebreakers with Wisconsin and Indiana should we beat the Hoosiers. All we would then need to do is take care of business at home against Minnesota and the Northwestern game on March 1^st, with this T-Mill in attendance, can clinch the Big Ten title. It is indeed business time.

Targeted

When Purdue and Michigan State met earlier in the season we still weren't even an NCAA team. The loss to the Spartans dropped us to 10-5 overall and thought it was a close game, we were still far from the discussion of even being in the dance. Winning the Big Ten was a pipe dream. That close loss began quite a ride, however. In playing them to a 3-point game without what many people say is our most indispensible player in Robbie Hummel, we gained enough momentum that we haven't lost since. I believe 1996 was the last time we have had a 10 game winning streak, but that can end with a win tonight.

To be a champion you must first get rid of the previous champion. Michigan State has won four Big Ten championship since we last won. We have already disposed of Illinois (a five-time champ in that time), Ohio State (a four-time champ in that time, thought two were forefeited due to sanctions), and Wisconsin (a two-time champ). Other than Indiana (a share in 2002) and Minnesota (1997 champ, forfeited to sanctions), the only one left is Michigan State.

This will not be easy tonight. In the nine games since our last meeting, and especially since Saturday night, we have gone from the hunter to the hunted. This will be the first game that we have taken the floor against an opponent we are battling for the conference lead in which we have the advantage. Both times against Wisconsin we were the underdogs, even at home. We haven't played Indiana yet, and against Ohio State we were probably a slight favorite as that was really the first win that made this group believe. That will be different tonight as we hold the lead over the Spartans, and they desperately need this win to take what they feel is rightfully theirs.

Since we last saw Michigan State:

It's actually a bit refreshing to see someone new after playing the same four teams in the same order over our last eight games. In that time we all know what we have done, but Michigan State has gone 6-2 in various games against the bottom of the league. The most impressive win in that span came over Ohio State in East Lansing when the Spartans won 66-60 on January 15. Michigan State was also tested five days later in Minneapolis but escaped with a 78-73 win over the Gophers in a game that was very close. Other than that the Spartans have had a steady diet of the league's bottom feeders, but they have been vulnerable to them. Of the league's top four teams they are the only one to have a loss to a team outside the top four, and both came on the road at Iowa and Penn State. The Iowa loss can be forgiven as a very bad night offensively against a good defensive team on the road. The Hawkeyes have proven that despite their record, they are a very tough team to play. The Penn State loss is inexcusable though.

Michigan State is in the top half of the conference defensively while Penn State was missing their leading scorer. Penn State is also 1-8 in its last nine games and aside from the Michigan State game where it scored 85 points, they have barely been able to reach 65. It is clear that the game against the Nittany Lions is a completely unexplained outlier, but it certainly raised some doubt on the Spartans in conjunction with the Iowa loss. Now that Sparty is getting into the meat of its schedule they face a most dangerous balance of needing to run the table the rest of the way in order to outweigh those previous losses. Still, this is a team that has impressive non-conference wins at BYU, Missouri, and over Texas on a neutral floor. They also gave UCLA quite a game before falling late, so they are more than capable of going on said run.

Sophomore Raymar Morgan continues to impress by averaging 15.8 points per game and 6.6 rebounds, but his numbers have been well below his average in every game since we last played except a 23 point effort in the first Northwestern game. Considering he scored 31 against Minnesota just before we played the Spartans in January, our holding him to 14 points was a victory. The only other scorer in double figures is Drew Neitzel at 14 per game. His numbers are down since last year, but he has been playing very well of late and will be the key to this game. Against Penn State he scored just 6 points, so it is no coincidence the Spartans struggled in State College.

Around the time of the first Michigan State came I made the comment that something felt off about the Spartans even though they had an excellent record. I still have that feeling about them. Even though they have won a bunch of games they struggled against teams like Minnesota and Illinois. They have been unable to put teams away early and have had to rely on big second halves to get wins. Michigan State is the best shooting team in the league, so that helps when it comes to needing that late push. They aren't particularly stout defensively, but they are the best rebounding team in the league. One of the best names in the Big Ten, Goran Zuton, leads them with 8.4 rebounds per game and he also scores almost nine a game. After the way we were dominated on the glass in Madison it will be critical to block out and keep the Spartans from dominating. We were out-rebounded 33-22 in East Lansing, and we cannot have that big of a margin again.

One final player to watch out for is Junior guard Travis Walton. He only averages 3.5 points per game, but he dishes out 4.5 assists on a team that easily leads the league in that category. Both he and Neitzel love to pass, and Walton was the one that scored Michigan State's final four points in the win at the Breslin Center.

Game Outlook:

As mentioned yesterday, a win over the Spartans would be good for two reasons. First, it would put us in an even better position to win the conference. Second, it would deal a severe blow to one of the contenders behind us. Michigan State cannot afford to lose this game with the schedule they still must face. A win not only would potentially give them a share of first place (pending the outcome of the Indiana-Wisconsin game), it would give them a tiebreaker over Purdue for the conference tournament and allow them to control their own destiny with two games against Indiana and one at Wisconsin remaining. We are going to Michigan State's absolute best effort tonight, and we must be prepared.

So far we have thrived in the role of underdog, but as Boiled Sports stated yesterday, we cannot rest on the Wisconsin win. We have to handle the pressure and deliver at home in a big game when we are favored, instead of relying on being overlooked as an underdog. For the first time this season the eyes of the country will be on us in this regard, and I know that the Paint Crew and the crowd will be ready. Will this team? I, unfortunately, have to work covering a high school game tonight, so I will be avoiding a score and rushing home to write my stories and watch the tape since DVR has yet to come to our house. Rest assured I will be sporting my Chris Kramer jersey and sending good vibes toward West Lafayette.

How will the Scott Martin injury effect us? Missing Robbie Hummel in the first game was a difference in the first game, but Martin didn't put up huge numbers anyway. Still, he is a key part of our rotation off the bench. Since we tend to rebound by committee anything he can give us off the glass will be a plus. Michigan State also tends to go eight or nine guys deeps like us, so having Scott eat up a few minutes will keep everyone else fresher.

Chris Kramer had his best game of the season in East Lansing. He was assertive, shot the ball more, and led us with 19 points. Calasan also had a great game up there, and with the need for rebounding against a team like this we will need both he and Johnson to step up in the paint. I feel that rebounding will be the most critical stat in this one. We got lucky in Madison with that atrocious effort, so we must do better tonight. We must also continue to shoot the ball well. The first time around we hit our free throws, but only shot 41% from the field. We seem to hit our free throws in streaks, but at the end of the Wisconsin game we were starting to streak upward.

Michigan State has struggled on the road this year, so we have to take advantage of that. Not only is this the most important game of the year so far, I feel it is the most difficult as well. We cannot afford another slow start like we did in East Lansing, but we have been doing better in that category lately. Finally we have to cut down on our fouls and play smart basketball. We sent Michigan State to the line 33 times in the first game, and that will not cut it at home. The recipe for success tonight is quite simple: don't foul, play defense, rebound, and hit our free throws. I am confident we will find the hot shooter tonight because we have done so all year. If we do all of these things we should be able to win, but I think it will be close.

When it comes to the pick I am torn. Do I pick against us because the strategy of asking to be proven wrong has worked well and I don't want to jinx us, or do I go for the win and say conventional strategy. I expect a very tight ballgame tonight in West Lafayette, and tight games tend to favor the home team. I'm going with us in a very close game as we hopefully seize full control of the Big Ten. I also feel that my jersey karma has been reversed. On Saturday I sported the black Dorien Bryant jersey I have and the curse of The Fumble from the infamous Wisconsin game was reversed My jersies are now free of evil spirits again. Purdue 65, Michigan State 64

This is no longer just a cute story

I long ago promoted the Baby Boilers to Toddler Boilers, even though that really isn't a very catchy phrase. The players themselves have used the moniker of Baby Boilers as motivation by those that continue to use it. It's fine with me because it continues to work, but it is also clear they are no longer even Toddler Boilers. Therefore, I am not sure what term to apply to them. I can't call them fully grown because it would imply they have reached a ceiling for their abilities. Should they continue to grow and progress it is clear the only ceiling they will have is an eventual NCAA championship. Right now that is at least a year or two away, but with the way they keep growing and surprising people you just never know.

For now though I will be content to simply call them the Boilers. They are no longer a cute story that is expected to fade down the stretch of the Big Ten race. They are a serious contender and one of just two teams (along with Indiana) that control their own conference destiny. I ranked them as a prohibitive #1 in last week's edition of the power rankings, but I fully expected a loss in Madison this past weekend. My colleague over at The Hoosier Report said it best this morning, there is little choice but to put the Boilers as the #1 team in the conference at the moment. They have swept the supposed "best team" in the conference, they have a chance to draw a split with another favorite tomorrow night, and a chance to beat the third favorite next week. John also reported that Purdue is the only team in the top four to win on the opposing floor of another top 4 team, though there are plenty of chances in the next 10 days for that to change.

The world has turned upside-down when Indiana fans are giving us praise and beginning to cheer for us to make the rivalry even better. They want us to do well not just to clear a path for their own team, but to make next week's matchup in Bloomington the best it can possibly be. Some have even come out to say they like watching our style of basketball because it reminds them of Knight's best teams. They appreciate the team-oriented style more than even their own current team. They also appreciate that we are getting it done with home grown talent and that the team is built on hard work and discipline rather than individual talent. What is going on here? I am going to have to check the book of Revelation to see if this is a sign of the apocalypse. If this continues, then the Cubs win the World Series this year on the 100^th anniversary of their last title I am going to start stockpiling canned goods and waiting for the end.

As I said, this is no longer a cute story. We are now a threat, and this week's rankings will show it. I am having trouble coming up with a theme, so we'll just go with a straight 1-11 comparison and save a theme for next when I come up with a better idea. Wisconsin was #1 in last week's collective poll, while Purdue came in third. The winds of change are blowing though, and there will likely be a new #1 this week.

1. (1) Purdue (19-5, 10-1) – Is there any doubt that at the moment this team is the best in the conference? Things could change quickly when a tough Michigan State team comes to town tomorrow night, but a win over the Spartans would be doubly positive. First it would put us even more solidly in the driver's seat for the conference title. Second, it would deliver a severe blow to Michigan State, as they would be two games back with six to play (seven for MSU). In that closing seven are two games with Indiana, trips to Wisconsin, dangerous Illinois and Ohio State, and home games with Iowa and Penn State who have already beaten the Spartans.
   
2. (3) Indiana (20-3, 9-1) – Indiana had a very impressive week in grabbing a pair of tough road wins. I agree the atmosphere in Champaign was a little too hostile, but I don't feel sorry for poor Eric Gordon in all this mess. Dealing with hostile crowds is what you have to do as a player. He folded at first and that is his fault. Yes Illinois was overacting and went too far, but good players deal with that. Gordon was unable to do so at first, but his clutch three to send it to overtime is what great players do. It was a dagger at just the right time under pressure. The win at Ohio State yesterday was very impressive as well, but the next three games are the toughest stretch of anyone in the conference as they get all three contenders in a row. This stretch will decide IU's fate.
   
3. (2) Wisconsin (19-4, 9-2) – If this were a poll for whining Wisconsin would be hands down number one. They can make all the excuses they want for the loss in West Lafayette, but when they had all the major advantages at home that they had and still lost those excuses go out the window. The Badgers are still unbeaten against everyone else, but Purdue is the better team with the sweep. They controlled the entire game despite hitting barely more than 50% of their free throws, getting outscored by 18 at the line, and getting out-rebounded by 20. Whine all you want, Badger fans. Purdue has gotten you twice now. If you want a beef then get better and beat us in Conseco in a month.
   
4. (4) Michigan State (20-3, 8-2) – The Spartans had to sit on the Penn State loss for a week, but they took care of business against Northwestern. As mentioned in the Purdue evaluation, they have the hardest schedule remaining, so if they win the conference title from this point they will have earned it. It also may make them the best prepared team from the Big Ten for the NCAA's. So far they are just 3-2 on the road in conference play with the toughest trips remaining. Beating Purdue tomorrow night is absolutely essential to keep hopes alive, otherwise they could be in for a rough ride.
   
5. (5) Ohio State (16-8, 7-4) – Other than probably Northwestern, no team is more locked into its place right now than the Buckeyes. Ohio State is clearly ahead of the bottom six, but against the top four they have gone 0-3. They still get Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue at home for their final three home games to play the role of spoiler, but they are probably out of the title chase right now. For now Ohio State is also safe for the NCAA's, especially with its body of nonconference work. If they lose a game or two that they aren't expecting, however, they could slide back to the bubble. They should be fine as long as they don't blow any games they should win.
   
6. (7) Minnesota (15-7, 5-5) – Much like Ohio State is the only team that can slide onto the bubble, Minnesota is the only team in the bottom six with a somewhat realistic chance of getting NCAA consideration. For everyone behind them it is Big Ten tournament or bust to get into the NCAA's. The Gophers blew chances at a signature win against Michigan State, Indiana, and Wisconsin at the Barn, but they still have a couple of chances at Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin to make a case. It would probably take winning two of those three and not losing any other game, but it is a chance and that is all you ask for.
   
7. (6) Iowa (11-14, 4-8) – A team that plays as hard as Iowa but suffers from a lack of overall talent is going to be up and down. That is the case for Iowa, but their remaining schedule, aside from a trip to East Lansing, is about as easy as it can get. They have a realistic chance of getting to 9-9 in the conference and doing so would put them at 16-15 overall. They would then need a win against a lower seeded team in the first round of the Big Ten tourney to secure an NIT bid, and that would be a great win for this program at this point. They still could make life hell for Michigan State too in East Lansing, but a closing schedule of home games against Michigan, Illinois, and Northwestern with trips to Penn State and Northwestern can't get easier.
   
8. (8) Penn State (11-12, 3-8) – Penn State goes here this week based on overall record, but there is another large dropoff between them and Iowa. Because of the overall body of work Penn State still can play for an NIT bid, but it is much tougher with three of their remaining seven games against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. Two of those are on the road as well, where if not for opening wins at Illinois and Northwestern with Geary Claxton Penn State would be pitching an 0-fer right now. Should the Nittany Lions get to the NIT it would be an even larger victory than for Iowa.
   
9. (9) Illinois (10-14, 2-9) – I get sense that Illinois expended so much energy in the double overtime loss against Indiana that they have nothing left for the rest of the year. This team still has a ton of talent, but the free throw shooting is absolutely atrocious and it has killed them in multiple games this year. Their home court mystique is certainly broken at this point, and they have very little to play for. I can see them completely falling apart the rest of the way. Home games remain against Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan State so they could play spoiler, but this team is done.
   
10. (10) Michigan (6-17, 2-9) – Michigan stays in the #10 spot this week, but it is a higher 10 spot after the win over Penn State. As bad as Michigan has been this year any win conference play is a step forward. They still get home games against Northwestern and Illinois plus a roadie at Penn State, so the potential for three or even four conference wins is still there. I am also not a big fan of Purdue finishing the conference season at Michigan, as that could be a major spoiler game with the Big Ten title on the line for the Boilers.
    
11. (11) Northwestern (7-14, 0-10) – Combined with their women's team, which is currently 4-20 overall and 0-12 in Big Ten play, the Wildcats may have the worst division 1 basketball program combined in the country. Ouch! The best hope for a win on either side may be women's home games with Penn State and Wisconsin who also reside at the bottom of the standings. Since they lost both on the road by more than 19 that is not even likely. Any win for the men's program in conference play would be a major upset at this point except for maybe the game at Michigan. Even then that is a stretch. Can The General change things in Evanston?

For Real

This game deserves its own separate entry. What the Boilers did last night was completely unexpected. Consider the following: in the previous 110 games at the Kohl Center, the visiting team had walked away a winner only six times. In Big Ten play the record was even better, as they were 51-2 at home under Bo Ryan before last night’s events. Here is the very short list of teams that have beaten a Bo Ryan coached team in Madison:

December 3, 2001 vs. Temple L 67-70
December 4, 2002 vs. Wake Forest L 80-90
January 25, 2005 vs. Illinois L 65-75
January 21, 2006 vs. North Dakota State L 55-62
January 31, 2006 vs. Illinois L 51-66
December 8, 2007 vs. Marquette L 76-81

The 2002 Temple team ended up winning the third place game in the NIT that season. Wake Forest in 2003 and Illinois in both 2005 and 2006 went on to have successful NCAA seasons, while Marquette is certainly on its way to the dance as one of the top teams in the Big East this season. The 2005 Illinois team came very close winning an undefeated National Championship. Only the North Dakota State game can truly be considered a bad loss in that group of six.

Even more impressive is the number of very good teams that were unable to grab a win there. Last season’s Ohio State team, with three first round NBA draft picks and the #1 overall pick, lost 72-69. Pittsburgh carried a #2 ranking into the building last season and lost by 14. Michigan State went to the Final Four in 2005, but lost in Madison. Illinois also lost as a top 10 team there in 2002. This is a record that was not built on a bunch of games against Sisters of the Poor and Blind. This was a legitimate home court advantage where good teams went to die.

So what was different last night? What made Purdue not only have the muster to win and become just the second Big Ten team to win there in seven years, but dominate throughout? Once again, the answer is team-oriented basketball. Unlike against Michigan State, we were able to survive the loss of a key member that altered the rotation of that team. From the moment Robbie Hummel connected on a jumper at the 16:16 mark of the first half to make it 10-8 we never trailed or were tied again. This shows we how controlled the game even before the first TV timeout at the 16 minute mark.

In just six short weeks, this group of freshmen and sophomores has not only won 10 of 11 Big Ten games, they have changed the culture and attitude of the entire program. When this conference season began, we were simply hoping to win enough conference games to squeeze into the NCAA tournament. The Michigan game was lackluster at best. Something happened in the loss in East Lansing though that made this group believe they could win right now. Now we sit with seven games remaining, leading everyone else and in control of our own destiny. It is a destiny we can take even more control of in the next 10 days. At the very least it has been a hell of a ride.

Positives from the Wisconsin game:

Shooting the basketball – We finally shot over 50% from the field in a game. Because of the number of free throws that Wisconsin hit, and the number that we missed, to have any chance we needed to shoot well. Despite the size differential we were able to get good looks and we always had an answer whenever Wisconsin made a run. This hot shooting also allowed us to open up a 15 point lead in the second half. This lead kept the crowd out of it and gave us the confidence to close things out when we needed to. Shooting the ball well was also critical since we go beaten so badly on the glass.

Robbie Hummel – When one hot hand goes away we simply find another. E’Twaun had a good 11-5-4 night in just 24 minutes, but he was severely limited by fouls. Robbie stole the show and now has officially become a nightmare for Wisconsin fans. In two games against the Badgers he has scored 31 points on 10 of 16 shooting from the field. He closed the first game with a critical 3-pointer and good defensive play. Last night he beat them by helping us build a big lead. He also connected on three 3-pointers last night, two of them to start the second half when we built the lead.

Containing Brian Butch – Butch had his way with us in West Lafayette, but we survived. Saturday morning every pundit on ESPN was saying how we had no chance because of this. I would like to politely tell them to cram it tonight. Last night’s ESPN Midnight Madness gave Butch a C grade for his performance. Considering how badly we were owned in the paint and how he dominated last time, I would give him an F. How can a guy that played so well against us two weeks ago only take five shots? How can he have only five rebounds when we got out-rebounded by 20? Holding Butch to the game he had is what won us a game.

Team defense – Try to imagine how much we would have won this game by if it weren’t for the number of free throws Wisconsin shot. The Badgers hit just 17 of 52 shots from the field. In the closing minutes when we were hanging on they kept getting offensive board after offensive board, but couldn’t convert a 3-pointer when they needed to. Trevon Hughes was especially bad with only four points. We forced Wisconsin to beat us without their two best guys being on, and they weren’t able to do so.

Team depth – This is a bit of a hidden stat, but even with Martin hurt we were able to rotate eight guys and keep everyone fresh. This was critical when combined with the lead we built. Wisconsin only played eight guys, but two of them (Lauer and Stiemsma) played a combined eight minutes. Not only did they have to play catch up, they had to do so on tired legs. Is this why they were unable convert in the closing minutes? It’s possible they may have simply run out of gas.

Negatives from the Wisconsin game:

Stupid fouls – This has been a point of contention on the Purdue boards, but apparently the Wisconsin fans feel there should have been even more fouls called on us. We allowed Wisconsin 11 more trips to the line and they made 18 more free throws than we did. Krabbenhoft kept getting to the line, but fortunately he cooperated by missing two big shots at the end. Fouls cost us E’Twaun at the end, but I’ll give him credit for taking advantage of the time he was in the game.

Rebounding – How did we win while getting out-rebounded by 20? This simply does not happen very often in Big Ten play, especially on the road. If we can ever get past this weakness in our game we’re going to get even better as a team. We allowed the Badgers to have way too many second chances with 15 offensive rebounds. We only had 18 total rebounds! Thank goodness Wisconsin threw up enough bricks to build a new state orphanage.

Free throw shooting – Let me get this straight. We went on the road to face the number right team in the country. We sent the to the free throw line 33 times, got out-rebounded by 20, and barely shot 50% from the line ourselves? HOW DID WE WIN THIS GAME!! These three big negatives can easily be corrected, and if they had been we would have easily won by 20 or more.

Up next:

I was in Lafayette for most of the day yesterday and it was amazing to see the number of Purdue shirts being worn in Tippecanoe Mall. The campus itself was just getting going before we headed back to Indy to settle in for the game. If I had known such a performance was in the making I would have stayed and watched the game, headed to Harry’s to celebrate, then gone with all the students to the airport to meet the team. I’ve only been out of school six years, but I am actually a little jealous that I never got to experience a team like this while I was on campus. The fact that they were met at the airport at 2 o’clock this morning is a testament to what they have done.

You may notice that I have changed things on the right side of the page. I have replaced the “Tiers to a Boilermaker NCAA bid” with a new feature. It is a “Tiers to a Boilermaker Big Ten Championship” feature now. An NCAA bid is secured at this point barring an epic collapse. We would need to lose every game from this point forward to miss the dance, and even then we may still go. That is not going to happen. We can set our eyes on playing for a higher seed and a title at this point, goals that weren’t that realistic as recent as six weeks ago.

The conference is also clearly separated into two tiers right now. Four teams are still in it for the championship, but there are five teams that clearly will be in the NCAA’s, and six that will not. Only Minnesota has a chance to move up from the bottom six, and really only Ohio State has a chance to fall back into the bottom. Both would take a lot of work in opposite directions.

For that championship we have to stay focused. We cannot afford to lose a game against the bottom six, so we now must beat Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern twice to avoid a bad loss. Of the remaining three games against Indiana, Michigan State, and Ohio State we have to win at least one to have a chance, and two to secure at least a share of the title. Should we beat both Michigan State and Indiana we will be the Big Ten champion.

We’ve come such a long way from losing to Wofford and Iowa State. If we had won both of those games who knows how high we would be. I think the win over Missouri State is what spurred this on. That was our biggest must win of the season and we came through. Since then we have won 12 of 13 and never looked back. If we played Wofford and Iowa State against we’d probably win easily.

I like the attitude of this team. Robbie Hummel stated that last night was a great win, but they had practice at 2pm today for Michigan State. That kind of attitude wins championships. The next step for that will be Tuesday night, and as long as this team stays focused we can take yet another step toward the most unexpected conference championship in school history.

Getting ready for some biking

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With summer just around the corner it is time to gear up for outdoor activities. Every biker needs good shoes, equipment, and clothes to bike in comfort. I do enjoy biking, even if I haven't had the time to get into it lately. With these handy guides you are sure to find hte product you are looking for.

This is what we’ve been waiting for…

Two weeks ago was the biggest game for Purdue basketball in a long time. The triumph in West Lafayette, which I admit was questionable with the no call on Robbie Hummel at the end, has set up round two in Madison tomorrow night. If possible, the stakes are higher now than two weeks ago. The winner will have the inside track to the Big Ten title, while the loser will have to play catch up and hope for some help in the last seven games. In monitoring the Purdue boards recently there has been a lot of chatter from both Wisconsin and Indiana fans leading up to this game. I am not sure if it is out of fear that we may indeed be back among the conference elite, jealousy that we're getting it done with freshmen, or merely the act of a few individuals trying to stir up trouble. Regardless of what it is Saturday night has the potential to be a huge night for Purdue basketball.

Since Wisconsin survived at Iowa Wednesday night and Illinois closed things out last night like Mitch Williams closed out game 6 of the 1994 World Series we're going to have to take care of our own business rather than get any immediate help. With the exception of the Indiana game, the Wisconsin game is the most difficult game on the schedule. It is possible we can come away with a win, but we must play our best game of the season.

Since we last saw Wisconsin:

Wisconsin has played three times since they lost their only Big Ten game in Mackey Arena, and all three times the Badgers have dominated physically in grinding out a win. This past Wednesday Iowa had them on the brink in Iowa City, but the Badgers pulled away on free throws at the end. The Hawkeyes kept things close throughout the second half, but when it mattered most they could not pull ahead. The final six point margin was a result of timely free throw shooting and a few key Iowa misses in the final minute when they had to shoot 3-pointers. Iowa even led at the half in this, as the Badgers are probably as glad as we are that they are done with the Hawkeyes for now.

In the other two games Wisconsin won a rivalry game at the Barn in Minneapolis 63-47 and thumped Indiana in Madison 62-49. Both wins were quite impressive, as Minnesota has played the better teams in the conference tough at home, while Indiana was undefeated in conference play at the time. They have taken the Purdue loss to heart and have played very well since then. The Iowa game is simply understandable because Iowa is playing everyone that tough of late.

Wisconsin has continued to be the best defensive team in the league. Eric Gordon was kept five points below his league leading average in the Indiana game, while Wisconsin kept teams below their 54.1 per game average in all three games. So far in Big Ten play as a whole only Illinois, Michigan, and Purdue have even reached 60 points against them. It should also be noted that Indiana is leading the Big Ten in scoring at more than 77 points per game, but Wisconsin held them to their lowest outing of the season at 49.

Iowa had some success against Wisconsin because they were able to contain Trevon Hughes. It seems as if he has taken his miss/block at the end of the Purdue game personally, as he dropped 16 on Minnesota and 20 on Indiana last week. Iowa held him to just four points though, his worst game of the season. Brian Butch continues to play well when it comes to scoring, but his rebounding numbers have been way down. He had 13 rebounds in a dominant effort against us, but only eight total rebounds in the three games since. Marcus Landry has also been playing well lately. The only game in which he did not reach double figures in the last eight was against Purdue. We did a fantastic job against him, holding him to just five points. History says we will not be so lucky the second time around. In the first game against Iowa he only had 5 points and 6 rebounds. Wednesday in round two he had 16 and 6.

I am honestly a little scared of this game because of how well Wisconsin has been playing on both sides of the ball. They are achieving offensive balance that is very similar to our own, and their defense has stepped it up another notch. We are also coming in wounded, with Scott Martin a likely game time decision and Keaton Grant struggling with his shot. Wisconsin also always plays with a ton of confidence in the Kohl Center, and in the latest polls they are rated #8 in the country.

Game Outlook:

A positive first: No matter what happens, we have already guaranteed at least a split with them. Because of that we have very little to lose other than a game in the standings. There is a ton we can gain in terms of being in first place by ourselves, toppling a top 10 team for the first time in almost 4.5 years, and securing a higher seed in the NCAA tournament. Even a loss does not totally eliminate us from the Big Ten race, as Wisconsin still must visit Indiana and Ohio State. Some may say we have an easy road by only having to play fellow contender Indiana once, but Wisconsin has a similar road having to only face Michigan State once. Michigan State also must come to the Kohl Center, and they have already proven to not be a good road team.

All that being said, winning tomorrow night's game will be very difficult. Against the Badgers in Mackey Arena we played a very team-oriented game and they were still able to dominate the paint. Butch was especially good, as he had one of his better games this season. I still don't understand why Wisconsin did not go to him on the final play, but I am thankful they didn't. Should Butch continue his dominant play against us and Landry gets more involved in the offense the degree of difficulty on this win will increase exponentially.

To have a chance we have to equal their defensive intensity. We cannot let Landry and Butch dominate in side while Hughes does everything outside. We can't let Hughes slash into the paint either, because he will either finish at the hole or draw the defense to him for an easy dump off to Landry or Butch. Those dumpoffs lead to thunderous dunks, and thunderous dunks ignite crowds. Landry had a horrible game against us in West Lafayette, and we need him to do that again.

We must also continue to get everyone involved with the offense. In round one we had a fairly even distribution of points, plus 15 assists on 21 baskets. That has been the key to our success in this run, and it must continue. Indiana struggled against Wisconsin because it became the D.J. White and Eric Gordon show while everyone else stood around and watched. Wisconsin is simply too good to beat with just a two man game. White and Gordon had 38 of Indiana's 49 points to prove that theory. Since we have better offensive balance right now we have a chance, but a chance is only good if you take advantage of it. We must continue that offensive balance and continue not playing like a bunch of freshmen and sophomores.

We have handled crowds well at Michigan State, Illinois, Clemson, and Missouri (except the last seven minutes). Those games have prepared us for games like this, so the next step is to go in and get one of these types of games. Losing this game would be far from a step back, but winning it would be a giant leap forward. Personally, I don't think we are quite ready for that yet because Wisconsin is awfully good at defending their home court. I'll give them the edge here, but I have been wrong about this team before. Wisconsin 60, Purdue 54

Fight with Honor

Signing day has come and gone and once again Purdue finds its class in the bottom half at the Big Ten. I don't normally put much stock in recruiting. Too many guys don't work out. Too many guys that are unheralded become probowlers (Nick Hardwick and Drew Brees) Too many guys need their little behinds kissed and wiped just to come to school (Jimmy Montana). What are they going to do when they don't get that any more?

We've consistently in the 40-50's range nationally for several years yet we continue to churn out winning seasons and bowl bids. All this happens while getting out-recruited by other schools that wildly fluctuate between feast and famine. We've proven that what few four and five star guys we do get end up not working out (Garret Bushong, Doug Van Dyke, Bruce Gordon, Brian Ellis), or they are complete headcases (Kyle Williams, who really is in a category by himself). We continue to thrive on getting 2 and 3 star guys who work hard and find their way to the NFL or who at least contribute solidly for several years. Mike Otto is one of those guys that comes to mind in this regard.

It is evident to me that we are going to need improvement on the recruiting front if we are ever going to get out of the middle of the Big Ten, so that makes the 2008 season a very critical year for us. In this class we received very few guys that will be able to contribute immediately, but the ones that will fill such a role will be critical. It is my hope that the transition to Danny Hope will create a boon in recruiting, but we must wait until next year to see how that plays out. On the field, since we will be getting few contributions from the players we got, we must have a successful season to make recruiting easier. We need to win eight games minimum, and with the most experienced quarterback in the Big Ten it is certainly possible. Games against Northern Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, and Central Michigan are games we have to win at home under any circumstance. I feel Iowa, Penn State, and Northwestern are other games we should be able to win. Oregon and Notre Dame are toss-ups that I feel we can win, but wouldn't be surprised if we lost. Michigan is an enigma I will get into much later, and I fear trips to Michigan State and Ohio State.

If we can get to eight wins next year, against what will be a much tougher schedule, it could open the door for better recruits in the future. The key will be our performance on the field. We will need better line play, more depth in the secondary, and better defense in general if 2008 is going to be a successful campaign. We were able to address some of those areas yesterday.

Lamenting those lost:

Jerico Nelson – Losing this kid hurt more than losing Roundtree. I liked this guy's speed and was looking forward to having him in the secondary somewhere. He had some good size for a safety and I was honestly surprised he had committed to us for a brief time. I'm still not quite sure why Arkansas fans were trying to start something on the Purdue boards about him, but he would have been a very versatile player to have. Because of the nature of my job I have a little inside info on him that I can't divulge, but I can say that there could be a surprise or two in store for the Razorbacks.

What I was looking forward to the most is the depth he would have provided. I don't think it is any coincidence that things started to turn south for us when both Torri Williams and Brandon Erwin got hurt. Both guys were logging a ton of time in the defensive backfield and playing well at the time of their injuries. Once they went down we were forced to pull a redshirt off of McKinley. This lead to a three game losing streak that I feel could have been prevented if not for losing Erwin and Williams. Now that both will be back and McKinley has more experience I am hoping this will key a turnaround on defense, because safety play is so important.

Roy Roundtree – I know it is technically legal what Roy did and it happens all the time, but the Big Ten has long prided itself on the "gentlemen's agreement" between coaches concerning long-time verbal commits. An example of a violation of that honor will be on display tonight in Champaign, but on the football side of things both Purdue and Penn State are hurting today because of a violation of that "gentlemen's agreement". Penn State lost 4-star running back Michael Shaw to the Wolverines at the last minute yesterday just as we lost Roundtree. A school like Penn State will always have guys to fill in for those losses, but we're not always as fortunate. I was honestly concerned with the number of slot guys we already had (Tardy, Gravesande Muhammed, Blackmon, Valentin), so maybe that is what scared away Roundtree? Still, he was expected to come in and play right away. Now he will likely redshirt and get buried on the depth chart with a bunch of other guys.

It seems as if Rich-Rod is hellbent on pissing off as many people as possible as a New Year's resolution. Yesterday he added Penn State and Purdue fans to that list. It is clear he has no honor. With no offense to all the Michigan blogs in the network (Michigan is a program I have long respected), I hope the Big Ten tees off on him. The Wolverines narrowly avoided a bowl-less season last year (four losses and three other games that very well could have been losses). What will they do without a quarterback and an entirely new offensive scheme to work in? Michigan is always going to be Michigan in terms of getting talent, but I would not be surprised to see them struggle mightily in 2008. Here is to hoping Pryor picks Penn State or Ohio State and just lights them up for four years.

2008 Class key signees:

Ken Plue – Well, he is our only four star guy and we gained an advantage by having him already signed and on campus. He's massive at 6'8" and over 360 pounds with allegedly quick feet. I am just fine with sticking him at left tackle and not having to worry about finding another player there for four years.

Jordan Brewer – I saw him play one game this year and he reminded me somewhat of Dustin Keller. If he stays at tight end I love that fact that he is currently playing basketball as a power forward, because those guys know how to use their body and block out defenders. They always make the best tight ends (Antonio Gates, anyone?) and they are generally quick enough to move down the field. I am very glad we were able to keep him.

Aresenio Curry – Since Selwyn Lymon found the inside of Harry's more often than he found the end zone it will be up to Curry to provide a big receiving threat in tandem with Greg Orton. I like getting Juco guys because they are often ready to contribute right away, and receiver is an area of desperate need for early contributions. We have a guy that can get the ball to receivers, so hopefully Curry and Valentin are ready to get it.

Rick Schmeig, Mike Chacksfield, Peters Drey, Andrew Brewer– We will only get better as the lines get better, and with Danny Hope back we have a chance to get better in a hurry. Hope was responsible for our Rose Bowl line that was so good even I could have completed a few passes in a game. Our line hasn't been horrible by any means, but I certainly expected more out of the 2006 line than we got. Most of these guys will redshirt, but in 2009 and beyond I feel we could have one of the best lines in the conference again.

Albert Evans – If he moves to corner I like his size. I've never understood why so many teams play small corners on big receivers. One needs only look at the 2001 Rose Bowl when Chris Clopton, who was talented but very short, got absolutely abused by the taller Washington receivers. Evans actually has a bit of size, and we need someone to step up at corner since Vinson is gone.

Dwayne Beckford – The largest question on defense is who will start with Heygood at linebacker. Throwing Beckford back there as a true freshman is a bit of baptism by fire, but if he can contribute even in a reserve role I like his size.

Aaron Valentin – Did the coaches know something about Roundtree we didn't? Valentin is another slot guy, but we will have almost everybody new as receivers so he may see the field regardless of what happens. Right now it is anybody's guess as to who Painter will be throwing to.

All in all I don't expect a lot out of this class immediately because we tend to redshirt almost everyone before they see the field. The largest impact in 2008 will likely come from last year's class, which rated about the same as this one. As long as these guys work hard and in the system we should be alright. We've gone to war with worse guys and come out fine, so ratings really don't really matter to me. Purdue has a long list of guys that weren't supposed to do anything in college but they have had successful careers. In five years we will be saying the same about many of these guys I am sure. Hopefully we will at least be able to fight with honor unlike our neighbors to the north.

Protecting the Status quo

I will be honest. With as team as young as Purdue is and as hot as we have been playing, I expected to drop one of these last three games. Against Iowa, Illinois, and Penn State I expected us to have one game where we weren't all there, we reverted to our youth, and it would cost us. It very nearly happened last week against Iowa, but we avoided it. Against both Illinois and Penn State we were very impressive in the fact that we took care of business and avoided a pair of bad losses. With the way Iowa is playing right now our season sweep of them is only going to look better and better. Since we made it through this stretch now, I am starting to think now that the bad loss won't be coming. Of course, if it does come it will be against one of the two worst teams in the conference and be even more damaging. If we're going to be a championship caliber team we must avoid those losses.

I am not the only one that has been expecting this. In today's CBS bracket projections we took a step back from a #8 seed to a #10 seed despite an eight game winning streak and 9-1 record in the Big Ten. All the national projections continue to wait for this team to start playing like freshmen even though it is becoming more and more evident that they aren't going to. The CBS projections are even more ludicrous when you consider we are leading one of the major conferences in the country, have won 8 in a row (including 3 games in the 7 days since the last projection), and a team like Michigan State is a #4 seed despite losing to two teams we have already beaten twice each.

Perhaps it is fortunate that some people continue to think of us as a fascinating story, but not a real contender. With one more win this weekend, however, that status will go away. Because we have taken care of business to this point we now find ourselves with a chance to take full control of this race by sweeping Wisconsin. They face a difficult road test tonight against a strong Iowa team, and I would not be surprised to see the Hawkeyes pull the upset. The next four games will decide our Big Ten title fate, but for now we can enjoy the sweep of Penn State.

Positives from the Penn State game redux:

Sharing the basketball – This is the most important statistic when it comes to identifying a good team as opposed to one with a few standout players. Last night we had assists on 15 of our 23 baskets from the field, but no player had more than four assists. All told seven guys had at least one pass to set up a score, while we only had eight guys play significant minutes. This unselfish style of basketball is critical not only for conference championships, but in March as well. I like to see the assists stats higher more than I like seeing the scoring spread around.

Marcus Green – With Keaton Grant struggling and Scott Martin now on the shelf for an indefinite amount of time we needed someone like Green to step up. This is the second straight game where his bench contribution has kept us in it early before the starters closed the deal late. I talk a lot about finding the hand and continuing to go back to it. We have done well in doing just that this season as well as recognizing when the hot hand has changed and finding it again. Right now that hot hand is Green with Moore.

E'Twaun Moore – I have absolutely no problem with nights like last night becoming a typical quiet night for E'Twaun. It's amazing to watch him as a player right now because you can just see the confidence he has compared to earlier in the season. Confidence is incredibly dangerous to other teams when you are a scorer, and this is what we need E'Twaun to be. His four assists were just as important as his 16 points and make him an even more complete player.

Robbie Hummel – I forget where I read it this week, but I believe it was Boiled Sports that called Robbie Hummel, "the glue." I think this is a great name for him because he makes everything stick together since he does whatever is asked of him. Last night he was our leading scorer and rebounder, and like most good glues he can mesh with anyone we throw out on the floor. I love how he can play both inside and outside as well.

Attitude – It felt like last night we had a different attitude than we did against Iowa last week. We were determined as a team to take care of business against an inferior opponent and, even though the Nittany Lions shot the lights out in the first half, we never flinched. We also never flinched when Martin went down with his injury. We played our game, played our defense, and knew that if we stuck to our plan we would win at the end of the day. That is a sign of maturity beyond this team's years. They were determined not to give up a bad loss at home. As a result we shut them down in the second half and allowed very little while putting them away.

Negatives from the Penn State game redux:

The Martin injury – Scott isn't one of our go to guys at the moment, but he plays a critical role as far as depth and our nine man rotation goes. We need that depth going into the Wisconsin game, and if Martin cannot play I would like to see us go to Chris Reid or Chad Sutor for a few minutes just to have some additional bigs against their front line. Martin's scoring has been down since we entered conference play, but missing him takes away one of our potential weapons. It also messes with the rotation that has been working so well.

Keaton Grant – A few weeks ago he couldn't miss. Now he can't hit anything. I know Keaton is battling a number of injuries right now, but we at least need him out there as a decoy and potential scorer. He'll find his shot again and I don't mind someone else hitting them for awhile because it keeps teams guessing.

Up next:

Other than the two things mentioned above very little went wrong. We won the game going away, Reid, Riddel, and Sutor got to play, and even little used walk-ons Garrett Mocas and Mark Wohlford got the first game action of their careers. When guys like that get to play something is either going very right or very wrong. Personally, I think it is great that Painter gave Mocas and Wohlford, two guys that are merely practice players, the chance to play even if it was for less than a minute.

This game was also incredibly important as a final tune up before a critical run, and almost as a final test. It is a test because once again, we did not have a bad conference loss. With five teams milling around at the bottom of the league we are 7 of 7 against them, and the remaining three games are against the worst two. To this point we have taken care of business against teams we should beat, with only the Wisconsin game and maybe the Ohio State game as examples of us playing above ourselves. Now we have four games that will decide not only our NCAA seeding, but if we will win the Big Ten this year. To win the Big Ten we must at least split the next four. Winning three of four would be even better. If we come out of the next four having done so and we are still just a 10 seed in the projections then we have a very loud protest to file.

We have proven we can beat Wisconsin, but winning on their floor will be very difficult. Should we pull off the sweep there is no way we won't be in the top 20 next week. We need to look at the Michigan State home game as the most critical to our Big Ten title hopes. They have not played well on the road so far and with so many difficult games left for the Spartans we can bury them in the race by beating them in Mackey. The trip to Northwestern needs to be a win, and anything less is a huge disappointment. Finally, we have Indiana, and a game that will possibly return to national prominence the Indiana-Purdue rivalry. We can beat these guys. We're a deeper, more balanced, and more complete team than the Hoosiers. Winning on their floor could put us in the driver's seat for the Big Ten, give us a better seed in the NCAA's, and put a dagger in their hopes because we would own the tiebreaker for any Big Ten tournament seed. It is a four team race right now, and we're slightly out in front. Let's increase that lead Saturday night.

Avoid the trap game (with a salute to the General)

It's hard to say this as a Purdue fan, but I am going to miss Bobby Knight. I grew up in the 80's watching Gene Keady and Bobby Knight battle for Big Ten supremacy. Younger Purdue fans, sadly, will never get to experience this, but when those two gentlemen were on the sidelines at Purdue and Indiana, respectively, the games meant something to everyone in the country. When the schedule came out the national media always circled the two Indiana-Purdue games, and they were always on national TV. At one time Indiana-Purdue was as intense and highly touted as Duke-North Carolina, and even though it is on its way back to that point it is still a shell of its former self. It got to that point, however, because of Bobby Knight and Gene Keady.

Gene has been gone for a few years now, but Bobby was still doing his thing in West Texas until yesterday. Though as a diehard Boilermaker I am contractually obligated to not like Indiana, I have the utmost respect for Bobby Knight as a basketball coach. He was loud, he was rude, he was abusive, but he also ran a clean program, graduated players, and won games. Right now Indiana is easier to dislike because they only have one of those three elements. Living in Indiana I have heard all the stories and seen much of the videotape, but I have also heard countless stories of the man behind the sweater who, if you knew him, you could ask for anything and he would deliver.

I was fortunate enough to see the final Gene vs. Bobby game at Mackey as a student in 2000 and simply put, those two made the atmosphere that much more electric. I only got to see two games in person coached by them, but they were special games. Strictly from a basketball perspective, there are few that can match what Bobby Knight has accomplished as a coach. He had to be doing something right if he has won more games at the Division 1 level than anyone else plus three national championships. He has even done something no one else has done in 32 years: coach an undefeated national champion. I, for one, will miss him. Here is to you, coach Knight. Good hunting in retirement!

Tonight vs. Penn State:

Because of our strange tendency to play some teams worse at home tonight could be a huge trap game for us. We have Wisconsin looming as a battle for first place in Madison on Saturday night, plus we have already crushed Penn State in their own gym. In theory this should be an easy one, but in theory Communism works as well. On Sunday the proletariat (Penn State) rose up to overthrow the bourgeois (Michigan State) and threw the theory of Penn State being a pushover without Geary Claxton out the window. In a way though, I think it helps us get our focus back on this game. I don't think our new ranking, for the first time in four years, will go to our heads. Penn State will have our full attention because of their upset Sunday.

Since we last saw Penn State:

Since we are in the portion of the schedule where it duplicates itself for four straight games it has been two weeks since we saw the Nittany Lions. In that time they have gone 1-2, but the one was a very big surprise against Michigan State. Before the upset of Sparty, Penn State had lost six straight, the last five of which by double figures. It is granted that in that five game stretch they played Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, and Ohio State, but they weren't really even competitive in any of those games. That is what makes the Michigan State win so shocking. Not only did the Nittany Lions win by nine, they were in control for a good portion of the game and never let Michigan State build any kind of a lead. Scoring had clearly been an issue since the loss of Claxton, but they exploded for 85 points when they hadn't been over 65 since he went down.

A large reason for the upset of Michigan State was the emergence of Talor Battle as a scorer in place of Claxton. He is only averaging 9.5 points per game for the season, but since Claxton got hurt he had 20 against Indiana, 6 against us, 11 against Iowa, 15 against Ohio state, and 17 against Michigan State. He's only a freshman and my size, but he has started hitting the 3-pointer with more regularity and getting to the basket more. We were able to contain him in State College, so we must do the same tonight.

Senior Jamelle Cornley has done plenty of scoring as well with a pair of 15 point games since we last played Penn State, but his rebounding has not picked up. Junior guard Stanley Pringle also had his best game of the season with an unexpected 19 points against Michigan State. This was a career high for Pringle, and more than double his average. Pringle was 8 for 8 from the free throw line, as Penn State hit 16 of 20 down the stretch to seal the Michigan State win.

Defensively Penn State still ranks 9^th in the Big Ten, giving up 66.2 points per game ahead of only Northwestern and Michigan. The Michigan State upset becomes more stunning when you consider the Nittany Lions got it done from the line. They rank ahead of only Illinois in free throw shooting percentage, hitting barely more than 60%. Despite their lack of size they are rebounding better than us, but we did own the paint in the first game.

Game Keys:

The Michigan State game appears to be more of an exception than a rule. The Spartans have played like crap on the road so far and they haven't even gotten to the difficult portion of their road schedule. Penn State also seemed to have had a perfect storm of offense by hitting their free throws and connecting on nine 3-pointers. In the first meeting in State College Penn State put only Mike Walker in double figures with 10 and had a season low for points scored. Against Michigan State they had a conference season high in points and had four guys in double digures. If we play our game like we did in the first matchup we should be fine.

The keys are still to contain Cornley and Battle. Those two do most of the damage Penn State and if they struggle, Penn State will struggle. We also must continue to have balanced scoring and find the hot hand. What makes us so versatile and dangerous to teams like Penn State is that we can focus on two or three guys who are their go to players, while we have a different go to guy every night that can be one of eight or nine guys. As long as we continue to find that go to guy each night we will have success. The first time around it was Hummel, Calasan, and Moore. Tonight it could be Kramer, Green, and Crump, or any other combination.

We must get off to another fast start. That is the biggest reason for our success in State College and if we do so tonight we will have our ninth Big Ten win and assure that Saturday's game in Madison will decide first place. The longer we let Penn State hang around the more chances they will have of making this a trap for us. I honestly feel like we have too many weapons right now for them to stop everybody, and they would need a huge defensive effort. We must continue to shoot the ball well, as we shot nearly 50% against them the first time. Finally, we must continue our unselfish play, as a huge stat from the first game was the fact that we had 18 assists on 25 baskets. If we maintain those numbers it will be very difficult for us to lose. Purdue 68, Penn State 52

Give me Moore, Give me Moore… (with Power Rankings)

Welcome to the game, E'Twaun Moore. That is all I can say after the best performance I was able to see during my self-imposed basketball orgy on Saturday. Because of high school games being rescheduled due to weather, I found myself covering the Noblesville-Lafayette Harrison game for the Noblesville Ledger around noon. Later Saturday night I had to cover the Kokomo-Lebanon game for both the Kokomo Tribune and Lebanon Reporter, so I took advantage of the lull between games and the fact that Buffalo Wild Wings had wireless internet and the Big Ten Network to watch the Purdue game. What transpired was the coming out party I have been waiting for Mr. Moore. It is clear now, after Saturday's victory, that the Boilers will be going to the NCAA Tournament barring a completely unexplainable collapse in these last nine games. We are also going to be right there in the hunt for the conference championship.

We are now at the halfway point in that championship race. Because of the schedule, the second half will be much more difficult than the first half, but few imagined that we would have handled the first half with the aplomb that did. Let's take a step back and look at what these kids have accomplished. They lost at home to Wofford. They nearly lost to Lipscomb. They struggled in the Big Ten opener against Michigan. At that point we were still looking like a fringe NCAA team at best if we could scrounge enough wins out of the Big Ten schedule. Trips to Illinois, Iowa, and Penn State (pre-Claxton injury) looked like games that would be natural stumbling blocks for a young team on the road. Something happened though, and I think it was that game in East Lansing.

In that game I think the young Boilers really woke up. Michigan State had played some of the best teams in the country hard during the non-conference schedule, yet we hung right with them and even had a chance to win late. We learned more from that 3 point loss than you would think a team could learn. It gave them confidence, especially since Robbie Hummel was sick and could have been the difference had he played. We learned that anyone can be our lead guy that night, as Calasan stepped forward for the first time and Chris Kramer had the type of game we need from him as a leader. We showed we still couldn't close like in the Missouri or Clemson games, but we showed that we would eventually learn that. Now we find ourselves at 17-5, 8-1 in the Big Ten and our worst loss is by 10 points to a good Missouri team where we completely collapsed in the final seven minutes. Honestly, I will take it and run.

Positives from the Illinois game:

Co-Big Ten player of the Week E'Twaun Moore – I have been waiting and waiting for him to take a game over and he finally did it. Now we have yet another weapon to throw at teams. My favorite shot during his second half run was the little jab step 3-pointer he absolutely nailed with a hand in his face. That is simply a shooter knowing he is on having the confidence to take that shot. It also had to be demoralizing to Illinois since he was guarded so well, and you could see it in E'Twaun's eyes that he was going to take that shot even before he did the jab-step. He had total confidence simply rotating the ball just right in his hands before the step. It was a thing of beauty.

Marcus Green – Marcus has been in the shadows of late with everyone else's play, but he came up big on Saturday. His 15 points signified his best outing since the Ohio State game when he had 22, and it was only the second time he has been in double figures this season. Since that Ohio State game Marcus had only scored 8 points in five games, and all of those came in the blowout at Penn State. Marcus kept us afloat in the first half when everyone else was struggling.

Terrance Crump – Here is another guy that gave us some unexpected scoring, and shows why we will be in the hunt this season for a Big Ten championship. Championship teams have guys step up when the expected stars struggle. Since Calasan, Hummel, and Grant couldn't get anything in the first half guys like Crump and Green stepped forward to fill the void. We have eight proven guys that can fill that scoring void at any time, with JuJuan Johnson showing signs of being the ninth. Crump is the only guy who won't be back next year, and Saturday he played like a guy making the best of his last chance.

Rebounding – Illinois dominated the glass in Mackey Arena the first time around, but in Champaign we won the rebounding battle. It was rebounding by committee since no one had more than five rebounds, but as long as the job gets done I don't care. We also shot 49% from the field, which is much better than we have all season.

Winning in a hostile environment – Illinois is probably the best road win we have had in a long, long time. We did a great job of silencing the crowd, keeping the lead the entire second half, and had a season high in points during a road game. Every time Illinois had a run going we would have an answer, and that answer for most of the second half was E'Twaun Moore. We also hit enough free throws down the stretch to put it away.

Negatives from the Illinois game:

Fouls – I actually kind of liked our strategy of sending the Big Ten's worst free throw shooting team to the line 41 times, but until late in the game they were knocking them down like Reggie Miller. Since Illinois hits only about 50% of their free throws, their 73% effort on Saturday kept them alive and made our strategy backfire a bit. If they shoot their average we win by 20.

Interior defense – This was part two of what kept Illinois in the game. They kept missing open 3-pointer after open 3-pointer, but Brian Randle and Shaun Pruitt were killing us in the paint. It didn't help that Calasan was battling foul trouble and that JuJuan was not doing a lot on defense either. We will need better interior defense against Wisconsin next Saturday and Michigan State next week in what will be critical games for our title hopes.

Settling for the 3-pointer – We hit enough threes to justify some of the shots, but I felt there were too many possessions where we took the ill-advised long range shot. I think we need to learn a little more patience and attack the basket more. Moore and Crump did this and found a ton of success, but players like Grant settled too much. Of course, when you score 83 points on the road you have little to complain about.

Up next:

With Penn State's shocking upset of Michigan State suddenly the Nittany Lions don't look to be as much of a pushover at home. This will be another game where we must not look past them to Wisconsin. We have to take care of business at home, where a win would put us just two wins short of 20. Since we still have two games left against lowly Northwestern it would be very difficult for us to avoid 20 wins. The ESPN.com Bubble Watch says we still have work to do, which we do, but I think we are a tournament team right now. A loss to Penn State on Tuesday, even though they just beat Michigan State, would be a step back since we dominated them in their own gym. We must do the same at home and set up a showdown for first place on Saturday in Madison.

Big Ten Power Rankings:

I have done Bands of the 90's and The Simpsons Villains as a theme for Power Rankings, so I was at a bit of a loss for a theme this week. Then last night's Super Bowl happened. Since there were some pretty big upsets in the Big Ten this weekend I decided to do my rankings with a theme of the Greatest Upsets in Sports History.

1. (2) Purdue (17-5, 8-1) – USA 4, USSR 3 – The greatest upset of all-time is reserved solely for the number one team at this time in the Big Ten: my Purdue Boilermakers. I didn't want to put them at #1 this week, but they have the tiebreaker with the head-to-head win over Wisconsin and they are playing the best basketball right now. Of course, I probably just jinxed them in the process. Purdue got one #1 vote in last week's poll, but it wasn't from me.
   
2. (4) Wisconsin (18-3, 8-1) – Appalachian State over Michigan – I really want to consider the Badgers team 1A at this point, just like how the Appy State win is up there as an upset out of sheer unexpectedness. Regardless of what happens tomorrow night with Penn State I will pick the Badgers to win the return match in Madison, but we have already guaranteed at least a split and that is fine with me.
   
3. (1) Indiana (18-3, 7-1) – Duke over UNLV in the 1991 Final Four – The Hoosiers take a step back this week with the loss to Wisconsin, but they are still very dangerous. Of course, if you talk to any IU fan their two game losing streak (to very good teams) is the end of the world and they would be better off with Mike Davis. It is similar the UNLV's loss because they were the last team that had a chance at being undefeated, but it's not as bad as it seems because it came in the final and Duke wasn't exactly a terrible team.
   
4. (3) Michigan State (19-3, 7-2) – Giants over Patriots – I considered punishing the Spartans by knocking them out of the top four after the loss to Penn State, but neither Ohio State or Minnesota asserted themselves enough to move up to #4. Much like the Patriots after choking the game away the game to the Giants, the Spartans really have to think about what they have done with now two losses that shouldn't have happened.
   
5. (5) Ohio State (15-7, 6-3) – Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson – The Buckeyes are clearly at the back of the line in the top half of the conference after losing to Iowa, but I still think they are solidly in place for an NCAA bid. Like Tyson in that Buster Douglas fight, the Buckeyes were a little over confident at Iowa and it may signal their downfall. We'll know more if they get facial tattoos and start losing uninspired games to Northwestern.
   
6. (7) Iowa (11-12, 4-6) – Villanova over Georgetown in 1985 – Thank God we are done with these guys! Of course, they always get hot in the Big ten tournament and as hard as they play, they could possibly steal that automatic bid. At the very least they are an NIT threat right now, and no one wants to play them. The Villanova parallels are there because the Wildcats got walloped by Georgetown in the regular season like Ohio State thumped Iowa in Columbus.
   
7. (6) Minnesota (13-7, 3-5) – Chaminade over Virginia – Minnesota is now 0 for 3 in chances to grab a signature win at home, meaning they are likely headed to the NIT unless they start pulling some upsets on the road. Though many rank this as a great upset, it's not like that Virginia team went on to accomplish much that season. Unfortunately for the Gophers, their 2007-08 season is shaping up to be much like that on a smaller scale. An NIT bid is still a very good step for them, and they should make it.
   
8. (10) Penn State (11-10, 3-6) – 1998 Women's NCAA tourney 16-seed Harvard over 1-seed Stanford – With the way Penn State had been playing since the Claxton injury and the way the Spartans had played of late absolutely no one saw this one coming. The same is true for the only 16 over 1 victory in NCAA tournament history. Even then Stanford had the game at home. Penn State now has an outside chance at the NIT as well, but they have a ton of work to do.
   
9. (8) Illinois (10-13, 2-8) – Denver Nuggets of Seattle Sonics in 1994 NBA Playoffs – The Nuggets were a flawed team that barely made the playoffs and knew they had little chance to win the title. They instead took the attitude they were taking everyone with them by knocking off the highly favored Sonics and nearly taking out the Jazz in round 2. This is the attitude Illinois will have on Thursday when Indiana and Benedict Gordon come to town.
   
10. (9) Michigan (5-16, 1-8) – 1969 Mets – Because baseball season is so long I really don't consider anything there an upset. The same can be said for Michigan in basketball this year, as it appears any loss to them by the top 5 teams in the league would be like the Cubs choking away the division title in 1969. This team is clearly at least a year away.
    
11. (11) Northwestern (7-12, 0-8) – Florida State beating Miami on a last second field goal – Like Northwestern getting a Big Ten win this season, Florida State actually making a game-winning field goal against Miami will likely never happen. If it does everyone would be shocked.

The Clincher

** Special thanks to Justin Metz (a.k.a. Sheets for Heisman) for the submission of the new banner here at Off the Tracks. It looks great!**

As mentioned in yesterday's wrap up from the Iowa game, tomorrow's date with Illinois is what I view as the Clincher. I still view a 20 win season, and the 11 Big Ten wins that must come with it, will clinch a berth in the NCAA tournament. With the way we have played thus far I now expect bigger and better things of course, but to do some damage in the tournament you must first get there. Since we currently sit at 16 and 7 in our respective win columns and have two games with Northwestern and a game against Penn State left getting to 19 and 10 shouldn't be a challenge. Beating Illinois and Michigan in addition to those, without doing anything else, will almost assuredly put us in the tournament. This means our remaining games would be for a seed as opposed to just a bid. This game is our clincher because there is no way we should lose to either Penn State or Northwestern, while Michigan could be just a little tricky.

Illinois will likely the most difficult challenge of our remaining five games against the bottom of the league because of their aggregate talent. That talent has certainly been the most disappointing story in the league this year, but they are dangerous enough to still beat almost anyone as evidenced by their first half performance in East Lansing this week. Unfortunately for the Illini, they don't play nearly as hard as the Iowa team we just beat. While that effort can keep Iowa in most games, it is that lack of effort that hurts the Illini.

Since we last saw the Illini…

Illinois has played three games since our meeting two weeks ago, going 1-2 in that span. On January 27^th they absolutely crushed Northwestern in Champaign 70-37. As my colleague over at Lake the Posts stated in his evaluation of that game, the Illinois-Northwestern game sealed up the first part of the 2007-08 Illinois highlight video and showed the need for a change in Evanston. In the other two games of that stretch the Illini showed their maddening tendency to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. On January 22^nd the Illini played Ohio State tough in Columbus before falling 64-58 in the final minutes. That game was marked by an uncharacteristically strong second half. Against Michigan State on Wednesday Illinois led the Spartans at the half before scoring on 17 in the second half to lose 51-41. They now stand at 10-12, 2-7 in the Big Ten, and would need a big run just to get to the NIT.

I really feel sorry for former Purdue assistant coach Bruce Weber, as his team this season is terrible with fundamentals. They continue to rank dead last in the conference in free throw shooting at 58.7%, which has certainly been costly given the number of games (seven) lost by seven points or fewer. They have built a new orphanage in Champaign this winter as they are also last in the conference in 3-point shooting. At least each brick from beyond the arc is keeping kids in central Illinois warm. They also don't know how to keep their mouths shut, as evidenced by the trash talking incident from the game in Mackey Arena two weeks ago.

It was noted after that game in West Lafayette that coach Weber gave his team quite a reaming in the locker room, so much so that his yelling was heard in the hall by the media. As mistake-prone as his team has been they probably deserved it. They haven't done a great job of defending their home court either. I will give Illinois credit for playing one of the more difficult schedules in the country, but that only pays off if they can back it up by not losing to the Tennessee State's on their schedule.

Illinois' more recent struggles can be attributed to the fact that two of their leading scorers have done little to nothing in the last three games. A player with Brian Randle's experience should not score only two points in a 33 point blowout of Northwestern. Shaun Pruitt didn't play against Ohio State, and was not in double figures against Northwestern or Michigan State. That is just part of the reason that the Illini ranked ninth in the conference in scoring, just barely ahead of Northwestern.

Game keys:

Much like the Iowa game, many of the same keys remain the same since we only played them two weeks ago. Illinois has proven that they are a team that will crack when they fall behind in the second half, and what has normally been a zealous home crowd will probably have a number of Purdue fans in it since they are technically our closest Big Ten opponent. Right now they are playing a team that has had its spirit broken and they are merely resigning themselves to play out the string.

One other critical factor is that next Thursday is the Holy War game with Indiana. These people are seriously pissed off that Eric Gordon jilted them for IU, and since they played the Hoosiers to a four point game in Bloomington a few weeks ago they will be out for blood. Since Illinois has little else to play for they may hold back a bit to save something for that game. Still, we cannot rely on that and expect to walk out with an easy win.

Strangely Illinois has been a place where we have always played fairly well. We have to get off to a better start than we did two weeks ago because you never want to have to come from behind on the road. We're going in as a first place team, meaning for the first time in a very long time we are the hunted. How will we respond to this? It will not be as big of a factor with Illinois already so far out of the race, but it is important for us to get to the halfway point at 8-1. So far this season we have taken care of business against the lesser teams and we must do that again.

Calasan was key to the victory two weeks ago with 17 points in one of his best efforts of the season so far. Keaton Grant also had a big game with 22 points. Since we have been such a balanced team this season we don't need those two specific guys to have huge games again, we just need similar efforts from any number of our cast of characters. In that game we used a 20-3 run, and Illinois has been prone to give up big runs all season long. Therefore, we must take this runs if they are given to us. When the Illini go cold (and they will) we must jump on it. Since E'Twaun Moore has been heating up the last few games and appears to be figuring out the Big Ten more each game it will be fun to so sick him on them. I'd also like to see Kramer score more, but he has been wreaking havoc defensively and that is just fine with me.

For the first time I am going to take a stance of guarded optimism. I think we should win and I think we will win, but nothing is ever easy with this team as we saw on Wednesday. The bottom line is we can easily keep this game close, and I don't trust Illinois to be able to close it with free throws. That is a huge negative in their favor, and I see it as their undoing this week. Hopefully Illinois has its big game in the next game, not this one. Purdue 65, Illinois 60.