Big Ten Bloggers Week 10

Mascot beatings, disappointing players, and dreaming of bowl games. It sounds like the ravings of the number one team in the country. This week's Big Ten bloggers' roundtable is headed up by Adam at Buckeye Lane. You may remember Adam from our blog trade before his Buckeyes kicked the crap out on national TV. He's back for more this week with a series of questions for all the Big Ten bloggers.

1. With the Big Ten season about to be wrapped up, it is a little easier to predict what Bowl games are possible for your school. Tell me what Bowl games would interest you as a fan. Where do you want to go? More importantly, who do you want to play?

I have heard wonderful things about the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio from Purdue fans that made the trip in 1997 and 1998. Those were our first two bowl trips in 13 years and many of the fans that went absolutely enjoy the city of San Antonio and the experience. Since I was lucky enough to go to the Rose Bowl after the 2000 season I would like to check this trip out.

As for a team I would like to play, I think I would like to play the Miami Hurricanes simply because I want to see how we would stack up against a traditional program like that. Plus, there is the matter of having bragging rights over my wife's school

2. In honor of Black Shoe Diaries' question about the Big Ten Moron Coach of the Year Award. Tell me who is the most disappointing player in the Big Ten this season. Also, tell me who is the most disappointing on your team.

I would have to say the entire Minnesota defense. I have no idea what happened with this unit, but when you can't stop Florida Atlantic or North Dakota State there are some serious issues. These guys weren't that bad last year, but something is amiss because they can't even slow down anyone.

The most disappointing Boilermaker at the moment is our defensive line, but they have begun to turn things around after our slow start. We did not have much of a pass rush at the beginning of the season and struggled even against a bad Notre Dame squad. Against Northwestern and Iowa we've actually been able to get to the quarterback and that has made us a whole lot better.

3. Ohio State is rumored to be building a giant buckeye nut outside the football stadium. This will lead to the new tradition of "rubbing the nut." I'm sure Michigan fans will use that against us. I know it is pretty late to start new traditions in the Big Ten, but pitch me a new tradition idea for your school.

This was actually a discussion on the Purdue football message boards not too long ago. I would love to see us come up with some kind of flashy nickname for Ross-Ade Stadium and get into the tradition of everyone wearing black for a game. I'd love to nickname the place the Depot, the Rail Yard, or the End of the Line.

I am a huge fan of the train theme because of its uniqueness. One that I love, but not many people know about is that we put the hat of every team we beat on the cowcatcher of the Boilermaker special during football season. I think we could build this one up more as well by symbolically doing it at midfield after home games.

BONUS ROUND

- You are a big-fight promoter - Talk up your team's mascot and how/why they could kick the living crap out of any opposing team's mascot - inspired by Oregon's mascot

It's Pete, so it's about time he used that hammer he carries around all the time. Once that works we can to the old tie them down and runt hem over with the Special. About the only one he would be vulnerable against is the West Virginia guy who has a musket, but I think Pete can get the drop on him with the hammer.

I actually witnessed this at homecoming on Saturday, as a guy in a gorilla suit with a Northwestern flag came out of the stands and actually attacked Pete. I don't know if it was legit or not, but Pete looked legitimately pissed and they did escort the guy out of the stadium.

- Now you're an agent - Convince me that you have the top 2008 NFL Draft pick on your team -

We have a couple of good guys, but I am a realist. We don't have the #1 guy overall. We just had our first first rounder since Rod Woodson last year when Anthony Spencer got drafted, so we have a ways to go yet.

Big Ten Week 9 in Review

As promised, things look a lot more clear when it comes to the Big Ten bowl picture. Two more big games loom as to teams moving up and down quickly, and those are this week when Purdue travels to Penn State and next week when Indiana goes to Northwestern. Purdue can suddenly vault itself into a New Year's Day spot by beating the Nittany Lions, while Indiana desperately needs a win over the Wildcats to assure going to any bowl. This past week both did a lot to head in opposite directions, but neither will believed until they win those respective games remaining on the schedule.

Elsewhere this past week no one received more damage to its postseason chances than Michigan State, while Iowa made a statement of its own by outlasting the Spartans in double overtime. That win moves Iowa ahead of Michigan State should both teams become eligible, and Iowa can move ahead of another team if they can get past Northwestern this week. The Hawkeyes suddenly find themselves going from no potential bowl to being 7-5 and getting at least to Detroit. As a result they move up in a vastly shaken up version of the Power Rankings with the return of the predicted bowl for each team.

1. (1) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0) BCS title game

The Buckeyes stay on top but Wisconsin comes to the Horseshoe this week in what could be a difficult game. The Badgers are beginning to play their best football of the season with a back to back slate of Ohio State and Michigan back. Unfortunately without a completely healthy P.J. Hill Wisconsin doesn't have much of a shot of pulling the upset. Surviving a white-out with ease in Happy Valley will make this week seem like a cakewalk

So what else does Ohio State have to do to prove they are the number one team in the country? I certainly don't know. They have completely shut down three of the best offenses in the conference with Minnesota, Purdue, and Northwestern. They've won with ease in one of the most hostile venues in the league where the crowd did everything possible to will Penn State to a win. All they need to do is hold serve at home and we get a second straight Michigan-Ohio State game for everything. I'm not picking against them at home.

2. (2) Michigan (7-2, 5-0) Capitol One Bowl

As expected Michigan dominated in the win over Minnesota and got some valuable rest for the banged up Mike Hart and Chad Henne. With the way Michigan State is struggling right now they may get even more rest this week when they go to face the Spartans. While all the attention is on the missing offensive stars and how the backups kept things rolling one should pay attention to how much the Wolverine defense has matured. They've done a very fine job the last three weeks in keeping Michigan in games.

I don't think Michigan can pull off the win against Ohio State though, much as the bottom of the conference wants them to. Michigan has the more difficult road to getting to the big game unscathed with a pair of road games the next two weeks, and I am not convinced they can get past Wisconsin without getting burned.

3. (5) Wisconsin (7-2, 3-2) Outback Bowl

I would really like to see Wisconsin play Penn State and Illinois again right now, because their offensive performance the past two weeks would have been good enough to at least get them a split against the two. Their remaining schedule could sneak them into a BCS bowl if they win out and get some help, and being a second team from the conference in the BCS is possible if things really break right. It's not quite what the Badgers wanted, but it's something to play for.

Against Ohio State the offensive line has to continue to play at a high level and the offense as a whole must provide some balance. The defense cannot let Ohio State build a lead like it has in so many games either. I was rather impressed by the way that Wisconsin completely shut down Indiana after struggling so much earlier this year, and that gives them some promise for this week.

4. (4) Purdue (7-2, 3-2) Alamo Bowl

So here we are again with another "prove it" game on our schedule. Will the third time be the charm? It depends on how much Penn State has left in the tank after being dismantled like we were against Ohio State. At least we have something in common with the Nittany Lions before facing them, but will it be enough? Personally, I can't help but be pessimistic and think we'll actually get a big win on the road until it happens.

I'd like to say the noon kickoff helps, but in two night road games we have won easily while we struggled during the early kickoff at Michigan. Of course, Michigan is a much harder venue to play at than the Metrodome or Glass Bowl. Much like Wisconsin and their chances at Ohio State, we have to maintain offensive balance with the running game and not fall behind early. Penn State is a team I know we can beat, but it will take the most complete effort we have turned in all season. If we play as inspired as we have it times these past two weeks we will do well.

5. (6) Illinois (6-3, 3-2) Champs Sports Bowl

It wasn't a pretty win over Ball State, but it was a win and Illinois is bowl eligible for the first time since 2001 when it went to the Sugar Bowl. Now they get Minnesota in what may be an easier game to go after a seventh win. That win would assure them of a trip somewhere for the holidays, as well as at least a .500 conference record. Considering where this program has been of late Illini fans should be ecstatic.

Illinois is too one dimensional to be a threat on the road against Ohio State, but beating Minnesota and Northwestern are certainly possible. At 8-4 would they be picked ahead of us should we finish 9-3? They would likely have a couple of better wins than us, but the Iowa loss may come back to haunt them especially since we dominated the Hawkeyes a week later. I'd certainly like to see Illinois if it had a quarterback that could throw the ball.

6. (3) Penn State (6-3, 3-3) Insight Bowl

This is where Penn State will find itself if they lose to Purdue this week, and at a neutral site I would pick us, but I am nervous about heading into Happy Valley. Despite the trouble Penn State has had this season no one is giving Purdue a chance this week, and that is the way I like it. The running game has been too inconsistent and we have a defense that is playing very well against the run since facing Michigan. Albert Young and Tyrell Sutton are better backs than Penn State has, and we stopped them.

I can't get past their defense though. Even though it gave up 37 points to Ohio State they are still pretty tough. If they get the crowd behind them with a few early stops against us it could turn in a hurry. Call me crazy though, but I really think we can win this game and even win it going away because of how much Penn State has struggled in their own big games this year. If the Penn State that demolished Wisconsin shows up we lose. If the Penn State that played Michigan shows up we win.

7. (9) Northwestern (5-4, 2-3) Motor City Bowl

I debated quite a while on who to put in this spot, especially since it is beginning to look like a six win team could go here. All the teams above will likely lock up the first six Big Ten slots because they have or will have seven wins. Everyone else will be fighting for this coveted spot to ensure they will go somewhere, and Northwestern has the edge with the win over Michigan State and games remaining against Iowa and Indiana. If they split and get to six wins they will become the #8 team, meaning they are in if the Big Ten somehow gets two into the BCS.

I was impressed by the Wildcat defense in the middle quarters on Saturday as they took it to Purdue by forcing a ton of three and outs. The offense just didn't have enough of a running game to consistently move the ball and while the turnovers didn't lead to many Purdue points, they ended drives where Northwestern could have scored. They can beat both Indiana and Iowa, and both are at home.

8. (8) Indiana (5-4, 2-4) eligible, but needs the Northwestern game to assure a bowl

Sometimes fate is cruel. Indiana finally has a season where it can get to a bowl game by starting 5-1, then a three game losing streak starts to bring a ton of doubt. The Penn State game was winnable if not for all the turnovers and the Hoosiers have to feel like they gave one away. The last two road games have been terrible efforts, and the trip to Northwestern is far from a layup. Even this week against Ball State is no guarantee, as the Cardinals have had a pair of close calls and could very well get their first win over a BCS conference opponent this week.

I put Indiana here ahead of Michigan State because I don't think Michigan State will win another game this year, making them ineligible. That means Indiana has the edge over Iowa in a tie, but if Iowa beats Northwestern this week the Hawkeyes will move into the #7 spot with easy games against Western Michigan and Minnesota remaining. We must beware the bucket game, because Indiana could be desperate by that point.

9. (10) Iowa (4-5, 2-4) eligible, but needs the Northwestern game to assure a bowl

Saturday's game against Michigan State makes me feel a whole lot better about our run defense because we kept Iowa from doing what they did to us last year. Iowa did what it wanted to on the ground against the Spartans, and only Michigan State could allow a comeback to a team that hadn't even come close to 37 points all season, even against such powerhouses as Northern Illinois and Iowa State.

There's little question Iowa can beat Minnesota and Western Michigan to get to six wins, but the Northwestern game could be a play-in game for the Motor City Bowl. Who knew there would be such a fight over a trip to Detroit? Does this make Kirk Ferentz a genius for overcoming the injuries and suspensions that just made him such an idiot a few weeks ago?

10. (7) Michigan State (5-4, 1-4) not eligible

I never want to hear about Purdue riding an easy non-conference schedule again, not after what Michigan State has done this season. Once again, the Spartans have started hot, only to gack away winnable games against Iowa and Northwestern. How in the heck did they go nuts against Indiana, then struggle to put away Iowa after how bad Indiana beat the Hawkeyes? Yeah the Spartans have the tiebreaker with the Hoosiers, but with games against Michigan, at Purdue, and Penn State left I don't think they'll get a sixth win to make it matter.

How can this happen? Mark Dantonio as the new head coach was supposed to change this, but Michigan State still can't beat the conference teams it should beat and as a result they will probably be home for the holidays. What a season to miss Minnesota too. The Spartan fans have to be shaking right now, telling themselves, "This is not happening…"

11. (11) Minnesota (1-8, 0-5) not eligible

Minnesota needs to make it a goal just to win a game this year. They can ruin the seasons of Iowa and Illinois if they win one of those games, and it would be a big step forward for a program that really needs one right now. Unfortunately the offense has to play lights out for this to happen, and Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin have too good of defenses to allow that to happen.

At least the Gophers played Michigan closer than we did.

The ability to turn on the switch

Through the Halloween party I attended last night and most of today I was trying to come to terms with the unusual events of yesterday. In our first win over a winning team this late in the season since 2004 I saw a vastly different Purdue football team than the one I am so used to seeing. It has long been a disturbing truth when it comes to Purdue football that once things start to go awry, we rarely pull things together. We seem to always progressively struggle more and more as the game goes along, unable to break out of a self-imposed funk until we lose a game that we probably had no business losing after the start.

Through three quarters yesterday this certainly seemed to be the case. Our defense was struggling to get off the field, allowing numerous third and long conversions as Northwestern went on three length-of-the field drives. We had banded together to stop the Wildcats one a first and goal from the three, but the offense had done little in two quarters to let us think we were going to overcome that deficit. A quick three and out followed that quieted the crowd and saw most of us nervous of falling behind by a pair of scores against an offense we had not stopped on consecutive drives and was beginning to wake up.

This is where things turned, as for the first time in eons it seemed, we turned on a switch and began to dominate. It didn't seem like much when we forced a punt on the final play of the third quarter, but with Neal Armstrong providing the most emotional opening to Shout we've seen the crowd actually seemed re-energized by the song. The offense itself went from dormant (five three and outs in the previous seven possessions) to what we expected. Until that point, Northwestern over-achieved on defense. We would then generate 140 yards on 18 plays to score a pair of quick touchdowns sandwiched around a Northwestern three and out quickly turned the game on its edge as we suddenly couldn't do anything wrong. We started catching passes we had been dropping. Holes started opening up in the running game. The defense became a brick wall, allowing just 24 yards and no first downs in the fourth quarter. We were playing so well on defense that even Chris Summers got in on a huge hit to end a kickoff return. You just don't ever come to Chris Summers' side of the field on a return.

It was a pleasant surprise, as we have never had the ability to just turn it on like that and blow a team's doors off in the fourth quarter of a close game. Most of the time if it is a three point game in the fourth quarter I am normally sitting nervously in my seat begging the clock to go faster. I've come to think that no good can come from those scenarios, but instead we won handily. There was no hanging on until the final minutes, and I must say that is a nice change.

The Good:

Jaycen Taylor – Is he really just two weeks removed from being sidelined with a broken arm? Our offense is obviously better with him in the backfield and on the sideline. He even played a very smart game, falling down in bounds after his 50 yard run.171 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns clearly made him the player of the game. I've long been a fan of Kory Sheets, as I even have his jersey, but right now Taylor does more for us on and off the field than Sheets. The important thing is that these two are doing it as a team. Against Iowa they were almost even, while Saturday was Jaycen's day. Later on it will be Kory's turn while Jaycen will fill in a support role. We need the both of them to continue producing to have a chance at Penn State. Even though Sheets didn't fill the stat sheet yesterday one play in particular stood out when he held on to the ball and kept pushing for yardage while being gang-tackled. I've said it before and I will say it again: we are very tough to beat when we rush for 100 yards as a team. When we get to 200, like yesterday it becomes almost impossible for us to lose.

Terrell Vinson – Just another two pick game for Terrell, who very nearly ended up with a third interception later on. His first pick ended a promising Northwestern drive before they could get an early lead, while the second and subsequent return set up our second touchdown. It's been awhile since we've had a corner that is such a danger to pick the ball off, but Vinson is clearly stepping into that role. He actually leads the Big Ten now with five picks on the year.

Ciff Avril – A pair of sacks, a forced fumble, and a couple of hurries are exactly what we expect from the big guy. Keep it up Cliff, you're opening things up for a defensive line that is finally beginning to get some penetration.

The Defense as a whole – 297 yards. Northwestern had been putting up some monster numbers of both points and yards of late. In his last two big Ten games C.J. Bacher had thrown for just under a thousand yards against Minnesota and Michigan State. Yesterday afternoon we held him to just 208 yards, sacked him five times, and picked him off three times. Tyrell Sutton gained 72 yards in his first full game back, but Sutton is one of the best running backs in the league when healthy. We once again held a team under 100 yards rushing, which when paired with our offensive goal of 100 yards on the ground make it all that much easier to win.

I've been very impressed by the play of our defense during this two game homestand. Iowa proved yesterday against a Michigan State team that is supposed to have a better defense than us that they can move the ball and score points. Dropping 31 on the Spartans shows that our defense did a little more than just stop a punchless Hawkeye team. Now we held Northwestern to just 17 points and under 300 total yards. They struggled on a couple of drives, but ended drives with turnovers in the first half and by more conventional means in the second. I feel pretty content to hold teams under 20 points the rest of the way and let the offense do its job. Just remember, they didn't perform that badly against Ohio State, holding them to 23.

Dorien Bryant – He can be endlessly frustrating at times, but man oh man can he make the occasional great play. That touchdown catch to seal the deal was one of the best catches I have ever seen at Ross-Ade Stadium and he actually managed to get both feet down in bounds. Just a sensational play.

Dustin Keller – He didn't have a great day, but he was in the right place at the right time with the fumble recovery in the end zone.

Coaching – Did we actually show some gumption and go for it on 4^th down inside the one not once, but twice? Did we start running reverses and mix up the playbook when we had been stagnant? Did we continue to commit to the running game even after falling behind? Who has kidnapped our coaches and replaced them with ballsy ones?

The Bad:

The second and third quarter offense – Wow, that was epically bad. Northwestern has been unable to stop anyone and after our second touchdown we made them look like the 1985 Chicago Bears. Not only were we not moving the ball, we were going backwards by committing penalty after penalty. At least we held on the ball and didn't turn it over.

Speaking of turnovers – Did anyone else think of the 2001 Illinois game when we couldn't do anything with all the first half turnovers. In that game we forced five turnovers in the first half only to barely lead 13-10 at the half. We ended up losing 38-13 because we couldn't capitalize on turnovers. Being tied 14-14 after forcing four in the first half yesterday had me thinking of that game, and thankfully we didn't have the same result.

The officiating – Good lord was there some bad officiating yesterday. These guys consistently were mis-spotting the ball, would flag some plays but not others, and didn't seem to realize that when you land with the ball on the goal line it is a touchdown, and you're allowed to say so after a review.

A missed field goal – It didn't end up costing us the game, but Summers just missed his first field goal since the Toledo game (I don't count the block against Minnesota). You're going to have a miss every now and then and he just barely pushed it to the left, denying the fans at the north end of the stadium to actually see a score on the day (Not that I mind in section 128 on the south end). It's not a big deal, but hopefully it won't effect him mentally and he can get back on track. After that hit he had on Roberson in the fourth quarter I certainly don't want to mess with him. He's becoming the Chuck Norris of our kick return team.

Justin Scott's penalty - Just a dumb, dumb play. It kept a Northwestern touchdown drive alive too. Don't let it happen again!

Up next:

Penn State suddenly becomes a very big game for us because it likely means the difference between a New Year's Day bowl and not playing in one. If we can beat the Nittany Lions and hold serve against a fading Michigan State and Indiana I have a hard time seeing us being held out of a New Year's Day bowl at 10-2. We would also finally have a "good win" that people were not expecting from us. A loss could still mean a 9-3 finish, but they would all be expected wins and because of no head-turners we could end up be relegated to sixth bowl-wise. We won't pass Ohio State or Michigan. Penn State would likely finish 9-3 if they beat us and go ahead of us. Wisconsin would probably be selected ahead of us, as would Illinois if they finish with 8 wins. There's still a lot of football to be played, and Wisconsin is a bit of a wild card since they are playing well and still play Ohio State and Michigan, but Penn State is our last chance to truly control our bowl destiny.

The thing is I know we can beat them. It will take our best effort of the season and we can't afford the lapses that plagued us against Michigan and Ohio State, but if we can at least stay with them we have a chance. I want to at least be competitive in this game, but I am encouraged by the way our guys have recovered the past two weeks. They want a 10 win season, and beating Penn State suddenly makes that a very real possibility, as well as a top 20 finish nationally.

We have to continue running the ball as well as we have the past two weeks. We've seen that early struggles on the ground can give way to later success if we stick with it. We have to keep playing defense, especially since the Penn State offense isn't that great. This week we did something we haven't done in a long time by quickly reversing our own fortune. Let's continue that surprising trend by going out and winning a game we're not supposed to. Who knows, we might even gain a little respect along the way.

Big Ten Week 9 Preview

Everyone has been talking bowl bids this week, especially since there can be nine or ten teams from the conference eligible for only seven or eight spots depending on how the BCS unfolds. In reality on Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State hold out hope for the BCS without something even crazier happening. According to this article (thanks again to Lake the Posts), any Big Ten team not going to one of the seven Big Ten bowl games has to have seven wins and not just six. For teams that are already at six wins they now get a shot to get that seventh win beginning this week as a safety measure, with three other chances along the line. Everyone else like Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, and Northwestern are suddenly in the boat of likely needing two wins to feel secure they are going somewhere after November 17^th.

Of these three Illinois is probably the safest, as their win over Indiana will likely put them in a Big Ten bowl. The same could be said for Michigan State, but they also lost to Northwestern. The Wildcats finish with Indiana and Illinois in the conference so they can do the most remaining damage. Indiana, having already lost to both Michigan State and Illinois is in serious trouble if they can't get past the Wildcats, even if they get to six wins by beating Ball State. None of these four play each other this weekend, but all four have an excellent chance to move ahead of already bowl eligible teams except for Illinois.

Remember, this is a conference that many are saying is the worst BCS conference in the land.

So who gets left out right now if there are only seven spots, but nine teams? Well, at the moment you would have to put Indiana as one of the two left out because they have yet to beat one of the other teams. If they get to the seven wins needed for an extra bowl then they will have a win over either Wisconsin, Purdue, or Northwestern, improving their profile (plus not having been to a bowl in 14 years could mean more ticket sales). The next would be Michigan State, who even if they beat Iowa this week could only end up at 6-6 with a tough remaining schedule. Will the Motor City Bowl then save them by taking a team so close by? If Northwestern, Michigan State, and Indiana all finished at 6-6 the Spartans would likely get that last Motor City bowl spot because of proximity even though Northwestern won head-to-head.

The biggest game in this scenario may be on November 10^th when Indiana and Northwestern play. Both may already be at six wins (Indiana over Ball State and Northwestern over Iowa) with the winner guaranteeing a post-season spot, while the loser would have to win a rivalry game to get in.

Of course this is all speculation at this point, and could all be blown to hell if the four teams closest to eligibility lose this weekend.

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK:

#1 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0) at #25 Penn State (6-2, 3-2) 8pm

Penn State will get its seventh insurance win when they face Temple in two weeks as a worst case scenario, but facing the Buckeyes in Happy Valley gives them a chance to all but lock up a New Year's Day bowl game with a win. If they beat the Buckeyes this weekend I have a hard time seeing them losing to Purdue, Temple, or Michigan State to end the season, and the Rose Bowl is even a distant possibility at that point with a lot of help.

You have to think though that Ohio State is not really afraid of Anthony Morelli and the Penn State offense. Ohio State already completely shut down better overall offenses in Purdue and Minnesota, so what do they have to fear about Penn State's? Not a whole lot, that's what. Penn State has as stuttering of a running game as Purdue has with a worse passing game. It's not that I don't have confidence in the Penn State defense to take it to Ohio State. I don't have confidence in the Penn State offense to score enough.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 20, Penn State 10

Northwestern (5-3, 2-2) at Purdue (6-2, 2-2) 12pm

I actually think this game will be quite fun because both teams need it for that seventh win. Lake the Posts assured me that if the Purdue offense is moving we will score more than 50 points. Statistically Northwestern is ranked ahead of Minnesota, Toledo, and Central Michigan as defenses we have faced, but not much better and we did score at least 45 points in each of those games. Northwestern is also ranked 117^th in kickoff return defense when we have already returned two kicks for touchdowns this year. This bodes well, because even if they score we can get it right back.

Northwestern can pass the ball very well, but they have struggled to run the ball with consistency. They get a huge boost in that department with Tyrell Sutton retuning to start this week and the sudden development of Omar Conteh as a quality backup. Where we should be concerned is if their defense plays as well as they did against Michigan, where if not for a sudden bout of turnovers the Wildcats would have probably beaten the Wolverines. Where Purdue has a solid edge is the ability to stop the run. Purdue has stopped the run decently this year, while Northwestern hasn't. This game could easily be an offensive shootout where the last team with the ball wins.

PREDICTION: Purdue 45, Northwestern 35

Indiana (5-3, 2-3) at Wisconsin (6-2, 2-2) 12pm

In an almost identical matchup to the one above both teams need this game, but with Minnesota remaining on Wisconsin's schedule they probably need it a little less. It is looking more and more like Indiana is going to need to get seven wins to get a bowl because of their previous losses. Even six wins is not a guarantee at this point because of the difficulty of Indiana's remaining schedule. The old bugaboo of stopping the run is starting to come back and haunt the Hoosiers, and they will find no one harder to stop on their remaining schedule than P.J. Hill.

This is Indiana's most difficult game left, and Wisconsin is always tough at home. If Indiana doesn't get past Northwestern in two weeks they will find themselves looking up at three teams they don't need to be looking up at. Even the win over Ball State isn't a guarantee anymore. Since Wisconsin's defense has struggled to slow teams down Indiana has enough offensive firepower to stay with them. This could easily be another fun shootout to keep track of on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 38, Indiana 31

Ball State (5-3) at Illinois (5-3, 3-2) 12pm

I am very curious about this game because it just has the feeling of a Ron Zook special. By Ron Zook special I mean it could end up being a game where Illinois does everything in its power to blow it and Ball State takes advantage of it. The Illinois fans will certainly take the Cardinals lightly and expect a win, but Ball State showed earlier in the year they can play with just about anyone. Nate Davis is developing into quite a quarterback, and you can bet the Cardinals, who are the closest team to being bowl eligible out of the MAC, are looking for a shocking win to wake everyone up.

Unfortunately for Ball State it cannot stop the run. They rank 110^th against the run and give up more than 214 yards a game. Illinois does like to run just a little bit. Now all they need to do is settle on a quarterback, as Ron Zook seems to be writing a book on how to undermine a quarterback's confidence by constantly switching between Eddie McGee and the Juice. If you can't trust Illinois to simply field a punt in a close game how can you trust them to respond if a team hangs around much longer than expected? Illinois will likely win this, but do not be surprised at all if Ball State springs the upset.

PREDICTION: Illinois 31, Ball State 21

Michigan State (5-3, 1-3) at Iowa (3-5, 1-4) 12pm

If the Hawkeyes can manage to win this game you could have a case of two teams headed in opposite directions. Michigan State has a difficult finish, while Iowa has Northwestern, Minnesota, and Western Michigan to close out. All that being said I don't think Iowa can do it. I mean come on, they managed only six points against our defense and we gave up 19 to Notre Dame. All Michigan State has to do is be patient with the running game and pound away until the Iowa defense gets tired.

This was before hearing about the Michigan State robbery charges this week, and one has to wonder how those will affect the team. All three players will still play, and that is good news since SirDarien Adams is really beginning to come into his own at linebacker. Jehuu Caulcrick and Javon Ringer should be able to find room to move if Jaycen Taylor and Kory Sheets were able to combines for 138 on the ground against Iowa. As long as Michigan State doesn't revert to late-season Michigan State they should be fine.

Michigan State 20, Iowa 10

Minnesota (1-7, 0-4) at Michigan (6-2, 4-0) 12pm

The battle for the Little Brown Jug will go down as the first time in a season when both teams lost to a 1-AA team. Sure, they were good 1-AA teams that could play for the national title if North Dakota State were eligible, but they are 1-AA teams no less. The difference is that Michigan has certainly turned things around and they are only getting better and better. Minnesota is already looking toward next year with a promising offense, but almost no defense.

It is that promising offense that could keep Minnesota alive in this one if Michigan is apathetic. Michigan should be smart and rest Henne and Hart for bigger battles ahead. They should have plenty of talent to get the job done without them. Minnesota hasn't stopped anyone yet and they have the official worst defense in the country, so this one will probably be quick and merciful.

Michigan 41, Minnesota 14

NATIONAL GAMES OF THE WEEK:

In looking forward to next season I am interested in the #12 USC at #5 Oregon game. I'm not sure how much we will learn about the Ducks before they come to Ross-Ade next season because they will be breaking in a new quarterback by then, but this year Dennis Dixon has them in the thick of the national title race. As Michigan continues to improve the win in the Big House looks better and better for the Ducks. Meanwhile USC has already struggled with Arizona and Stanford this year. No team with that much talent should struggle with teams that bad. The game is at Autzen Stadium, so I am giving the edge to the Ducks. Oregon 27, USC 24

The second game of national significance is #9 Kansas at Texas A&M. I know it's a game where only one team is ranked, but since we are projected to go in the Alamo Bowl to Insight Bowl range we could end up playing one of these teams in the post-season. Kansas remains as one of the five unbeaten teams in the country, but their best win is over Kansas State. Texas A&M is a sham in every sense of the words, as since I watched them against Miami earlier this season they looked terrible. They didn't even bother to show up in a nationally televised Thursday night game, and therefore we might have a chance to beat them if we played them in a bowl game. Kansas 24, Texas A&M 16

LAST WEEK: 7-1 SEASON RECORD: 59-17

GUEST POST: Lake the Posts drops by Off the Tracks

In honor of my 100^th post here at Off the Tracks I am going to sit back on my lazy butt, kick my feet up, and let Lake the Posts take over for the day. Seriously though, Lake the Posts is one of the most highly thought out blogs in the Big Ten Bloggers' network, and I have enjoyed reading his take all week on the upcoming matchup of the only two teams without a state in their name in the Big Ten. The good writing has to come from that great Northwestern education. Apparently he thinks we draw some sort of comparison to Ivan Drago from Rocky IV. Since Rocky did personally end the Cold War I have to respect his parallel. After all, if I can change, and you can chage…

Anyway, without further ado please welcome Lake the Posts to the stage for this week's Q&A session. As always, I ask the questions and my fellow blogger provides the answers about our upcoming opponent.

1. It's been more than a decade since Northwestern came out of nowhere to go to the Rose bowl, yet teams still sleep on you and play the, "It's just Northwestern" card even though you've won a piece of three conference titles in six years there (95, 96, and 2000). You always have enough of an offense to bite someone, and you've proven to be more consistently dangerous than Indiana, Illinois, or Minnesota, so what gives? Why do teams sleep on you?

Great question. This is the primary reason for starting Lake The Posts. I was sick and tired as a fan of the "weren't you guys good in, like 1995?" sentiment. Fact is we have the 6th best BIG TEN record in the past 5 years. Granted, that is smack dab in the middle of the pack, but I'm sure a poll would reveal that most fans would think the answer is 11th. I think the coaches respect us, but 40-year season ticket holders are habitually circling "win" every August when they see NU on the schedule. If Fitz can get his own coaches in there and finish strong this year, we'll be looking at our once every 4-year noise-making year where we can compete for the conference crown. With the exception of a couple key linemen, we have every key skill player and most everyone else back next year. We prey on teams sleeping on us. It will take sustained winning - like we've done against teams like Iowa for them to really start keying on us. Come on, even though we've won 2 of our last 3 vs Purdue, a loss to us would be the end of the world in Boilermakers fans eyes right?

2. What is the real story behind Tyrell Sutton this year? Is he going to make an effort to play or redshirt? How pleased are you with the development of C.J. Bacher in the mold of Brett Basanez, Zack Kustok, Steve Schnur, and your other great spread QB's? How is the rest of the team coming along?

Tyrell went down in the first quarter of the second game of the season (vs. Nevada). It was a nasty high ankle sprain and he "returned" vs. Eastern Michigan and played in one play and was used as a decoy. I had hoped he could apply for a medical redshirt, but there was a lot of speculation on why/why not and whether or not he would be granted the redshirt. If you had told me we'd lose him after essentially 1 game, I would have told you 5-7 best case scenario. I actually revised an 8-4 projection to 5-7 as a result. Everyone knows how good of a runner he is, but he is the best receiving RB in the conference. Period. This enables our spread to be lethal when clicking.

CJ's development in recent weeks is the story of the year at NU. He was inconsistent early on, yet has put up numbers all year. The Michigan game was infuriating as we outplayed them and essentially shut down Hart as much as you can shut him down. We were up the whole game and then he melted down, throwing picks and not feeling the weakside blitz, coughed it up more than once handing the game to Michigan. Schnur wasn't an option QB, but Bacher is definitely going to be held in the same sentence as Kustok and Basanez by the time he graduates (he has one more year). Baz started all 4 years and thus was able to put up sick numbers (3rd all time Big Ten passer). Bacher, when he is on, seems to be even better. He is less consistent than Baz, though. The WR corps is scary. We're 7 deep. The O-line has been fantastic for the past 3 weeks, but it was not early on. The defense has been the major disappointment. And Purdue may get 300 yards of kickoff returns as we are the worst cover team I've seen.

3. What are your thoughts on the Big Ten as a whole? How can a conference in a "down year" possibly be down when it's still highly possible for 10 of its eleven members can get to bowl eligibility? Where do you see Northwestern falling in the bowl mix with 4 games left?

I feel that the entire nation is mediocre. Anyone who saw the South Florida-Rutgers game can't say these teams measure up to years past. Everyone is down - not just the Big Ten. The difference is Big Ten teams' non-conference schedules seem to be getting weaker and weaker each year. NU's was a joke - and we lost to Duke. Duke! (See next question). This is actually bad for NU since we are such a tiny school (7400) and have such a small alumni base. If it comes down to NU and anyone else in the country, we'll lose in most cases because we simply don't travel well. We somehow manage to always travel decently for Bowl games, in part b/c our alumni base is so spread out in NY, LA and other places. I've got the wins over/under at 1.5. Would love a 7-5 which i think would get us either to Champs or more likely Detroit for Motor City.

4. It happened with Miami (OH) in 1995, Iowa in 2000, Duke this year, and numerous other teams in past seasons. How does Northwestern have such good years but end up losing inexplicably to bad teams like that in years where the Wildcats have great seasons? Does this play into question #1 and the "It's just Northwestern" factor?

Yes...this is the other foot of being an NU fan. It has happened EVERY single year since 1995. We have not run the table non-conference in more than 40 years. Pick a year - Duke, UNH, TCU...it doesn't matter - infuriating. I truly believe the mark of Fitz could be that he wins the games he should and is competitive in those that he/we should not win. It truly is inexplicable. I will tell you, school starts late (trimester system) so our September home games are usually a joke. We have a small fan base and only seem to crank it up when a) we play Big Ten schools who travel well/have big Chicago bases and b) after big years (late 90s was good). I'm amazed that we get recruits based on how inferior our atmosphere is week in and week out. It's great for the big games (Ohio St., Michigan) but I'm always disappointed with our inability to capture Chicago. Our attendance has been the weakest its been since I've been following (1991) and that TRULY is inexplicable.

Big Ten Blogger’s roundtable, Hosted by Black Shoe Diaries

This week's Big Ten blogger's roundtable questions are submitted by the Penn State blog Black Shoe Diaries. Mike runs one of the many Penn state blog who will undoubtedly be flooding us with questions next week after they take care of the big, bad Buckeyes in Happy Valley. In the meantime though I will go through Mike's questions before welcoming Lake the Posts to the stage for tomorrow's blog trade about Northwestern. On to the questions!

Pretend for a moment you're the little Japanese guy on Heroes. You can close your eyes, clench your fists, crap your pants and go back in time. If you could go back and change one play for your team this season, what would it be?

Well, we're already 6-2 and in the two losses one play probably would not have made a difference in all the bloodletting, but I would probably go back and either duct tape the ball to Kory Sheets' arm before he fumbled at Michigan or screamed for everyone to run off the field while the first Wolverine punt was in the air of the same game. Both plays were huge turnovers early in the game that could have turned things around if they had not happened. Instead they gave Michigan two touchdowns off of short fields and a 17-7 lead after one quarter that only got uglier as the day went on. Again, they may not have made a difference, but they might have. I honestly don't know what we could have done different against Ohio State to make a difference.

We're now two-thirds of the way through the season. Everyone likes to debate who will be the Big Ten Coach of the Year. I want to know which Big Ten coach is a complete moron that should be demoted back to fullbacks coach on a team that runs the spread offense.

There have been a few boneheaded plays this year, but Kirk Ferentz' game prep this past weekend for Purdue was pretty bad. You have two good running backs that have gashed us each of the past two years. You have a dominant defense against the run. You also have a young quarterback with very green receivers and a shaky offensive line. You're also playing a team that has been epically bad against the run for the past three years. Naturally, Jake Christensen threw the ball all over the field Saturday; Iowa only had the ball for 25 minutes, and managed just six points off of two short fields.

Second place goes to Joe Tiller for punting from the 31 yard line in the same game with a kicker that has made multiple 47 yard field goals in his career. That call just REALLY irked me.

Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's wife. But the Bible doesn't say anything about your rival. Which current Big Ten player do you most wish played for your team?

Can I just have the entire Ohio State defense please? Last season I watched a ton of Miami and Purdue football because of my wife and I coveted her team's defense to pair with my team's offense. The Hurricane offense is dismal, but they have had quite a defense the past years while Purdue has been the opposite. This year Ohio State's defense is shutting down everyone they face no matter if they pass the ball a ton (like Purdue), run the ball a lot (like Michigan State), or do a little of both well (like Minnesota). Our own defense is improving and played its best game in years this past Saturday, but I would love to have a defense that simply shuts other teams down and lets our own offense work at its leisure.

Bonus Question

It's probably too early to start thinking about next year. Well, unless you're Minnesota in which case you've been thinking about next year for a month or so already. Assess your team's future. Was this year your chance to make a run or is this just a rebuilding year with greater expectations in 2008? Or do you plan to suck in 2008 just as much as you suck now?

I have mixed expectations about 2008 because we do get quite a bit back, but the schedule is much harder, especially out of conference. We were blasted this year for a non-conference slate of Toledo, Eastern Illinois, Central Michigan (which won the MAC and 10 games, but can't win outside the MAC this year), and a the worst Notre Dame team ever. Next year we lose key players in Dorien Bryant, Dustin Keller, and three offensive linemen in Sean Sester, Jordan Grimes, and Robbie Powell. We also must replace all three starting linebackers and Cliff Avril on defense. We have quite a bit coming back though on both sides of the ball so if some newcomers can play early the pieces will be there, but this year was really the year to do it.

Next season the schedule starts easily with 1-AA Northern Colorado, but then it gets nasty in a hurry. Next we get Central Michigan, who is still the best team in the MAC and will be better next year. We follow that up with a home game against Oregon, who quite possibly could be the defending national champs at that point. We then go to Notre Dame where we've only won once in 30 some odd years, but until they show drastic improvement I'll consider that one winnable. In the conference we open with Penn State at home, and then go to Ohio State and Northwestern. We come back for home games against Minnesota and Michigan before going to Michigan State and Iowa. Indiana closes the season by coming to West Lafayette.

The Oregon-Notre Dame-Penn State-Ohio State is a brutal slate that could very well leave us at 2-4 overall and 0-2 to start the conference. To make any kind of noise next year we have to at the very least split those four games if not win three of them. Iowa is another place we have struggled to play at on the road of late, meaning there won't be any late season help. At least if we're 5-0 to start next year no one will say it is because of a weak schedule.

I honestly expect to take a step back record-wise next year, but that is based on finishing at my goal of 9-3 this year. Oregon may not be as bad as it looks because they lose Dennis Dixon after this season and they do have to come to Ross-Ade. Notre Dame has a long way to go yet, but they obviously have some very talented athletes. With a senior quarterback and some key cogs returning offensively I'd like another 9-3 or so record, but I could easily see us sliding to 7-5 or 6-6 against a tougher schedule. I'll say Northern Colorado, Central Michigan, and Minnesota are almost guaranteed wins, Northwestern, Iowa, and Indiana should be wins, and the rest are toss-ups at best.

Big Ten week 8 in Review

Illinois confirmed it this past weekend: the Big Ten race is officially over for everyone not named Michigan or Ohio State. Again. We are now down to wild scenarios involving Minnesota beating Michigan or hoping for four way ties as pointed out by my colleague at Black Shoe Diaries for anyone else to have a chance. The most realistic thing anyone can do at the moment is play for pride, a better bowl, and hope they spoil one of the Big two's seasons. Even then the best case scenario might be for those two to be at 7-0 before the big game at the Big House and then cheer like hell for Michigan to win so the conference can get two teams into the BCS and a crapload of extra money that comes with it.

As usual, the Big Ten is being called down because everyone is beating everyone else, but if it happens in the SEC or the Pac-10 it's because of the "depth of the league". Someone please tell me how the league can be down when we have a strong likelihood of getting nine teams to bowl eligibility at this point, and even Iowa could still be a 10^th team if things broke right. The last time I checked that was 90.9% of the league that could go bowling. It's really starting to get ridiculous at this point. Four teams joined Ohio State on the happy side of bowl eligibility this past week, as Michigan, Purdue, Penn State, and Wisconsin all qualified for the postseason with wins. Sure, in this age of everyone going to bowls there are now almost as many bowl slots (64) as there are in the NCAA tournament (65), but it still means something to make it to the postseason.

There is not a ton of change this week in the power rankings, but I do feel there's more separation between the #2 and #3 spots, as well as the #5 and #6 spots. On to the rankings.

Week 8 Big Ten Power Rankings

1. (1) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0)

There was no flashback to 1998 as the Buckeye defense dominated again against the Spartans. Illinois should be very afraid now, as they run as run-oriented of an offense as the Spartans do and Michigan State was only able to manage 185 yards against the Buckeyes. A cause for concern though has to be the turnovers. I was watching the third quarter of this game at Harry's and Ohio State got very careless with the ball in the second half. Two straight defensive scores were very nearly followed by a third as Ohio State had a rare meltdown. The Buckeyes have not been burned badly yet by turnovers, but the day may come.

Michigan State only managed 59 yards on the ground as one of the better running offenses Ohio State will face this year. Ohio State may have to run a juggernaut of increasing difficulty each week as the season progresses, but the defense continues to play at a high enough level to make it plausable. Right now Ohio State is a team that, if the offense reaches the 20 point plateau, the game is over as long as they don't hurt themselves. They aren't the flashiest team in the country, but as we have seen this year the important thing is to just keep winning, and that is what they do.

2. (2) Michigan (6-2, 4-0)

You have to wonder what Michigan would do to Appalachian State if they played today. I still think the Oregon win was legitimate as the Ducks are a very good team, but the Wolverines are just getting stronger and stronger as the season goes on. Even with a banged up Chad Henne and no Mike Hart Michigan outlasted Illinois on the road. It helps that the Illini had one of the worst mistakes you can make in a big game, but the Wolverines are the type of team you can never screw up against. My Boilers will attest to that after a four turnover performance in Ann Arbor.

The Wolverines thrive on mistakes, and this week the walking mistake that is Minnesota at the moment comes to town in the last home game before Ohio State. Right now I would say Michigan has the tougher road to 7-0 before Ohio State, but that is because Michigan State and Wisconsin will both be lying in wait needing a big home win to improve bowl stakes. I also think Michigan is in a weaker position because of injuries and they have already shown more weakness this year than the Buckeyes. If they lose both games though they still could play spoiler against Ohio State's national title hopes.

3. (3) Penn State (6-2, 3-2)

Times have indeed changed when a gritty win over Indiana can be used as a measuring stick. Penn State walked into a bear trap in Bloomington and came out clean thanks to a defense that made big plays when it had to. Thanks to Black Shoe Diaries they still have a small chance at getting to Pasadena, but with a home game against Ohio State this weekend they have perhaps the best shot of anyone else to get there.

Penn State's offense was very balanced against Indiana with 195 passing yards and 192 on the ground. Evan Royster and Rodney Kinlaw were almost even on the ground as well. If Penn State can knock off Ohio State this weekend a 10-2 record to finish is not outside the realm of possibility. Right now Penn State controls its own destiny for a New Year's Day bowl, and very few teams in this conference can say that.

4. (4) Purdue (6-2, 2-2)

Again, I place Purdue here because they should be able to win three of their remaining four games and finish 9-3 overall. That should be good enough to get a team like Purdue at least to San Antonio, and no matter who you play you can't argue with having nine wins. The Boilers convincingly got off a losing streak in a game they easily could have struggled. To me, we looked night and day better than the week before.

Iowa has a good run defense, but Purdue was able to run the ball and committed itself to running the ball for the first time in years. The return of Jaycen Taylor was a spark that will pay huge dividends if he can continue to stay healthy. The defense has also been surprisingly stout thus far against the run, a factor that has not been there the past few seasons. Right now the only team remaining on the Purdue schedule that runs the ball well is Michigan State, but that is a little down the line yet.

5. (6) Wisconsin (6-2, 2-2)

With Ohio State and Michigan both still on the schedule Wisconsin may have a better chance than Penn State to make a statement. The Badgers won't get any schedule help from Minnesota but if they get past Indiana then shock the two titans they could potentially get into the BCS at large discussion. Since Michigan and Ohio State still must play each other one well placed loss by those two would suddenly throw Wisconsin back into the BCS picture after the Iowa and Penn State losses.

It was only a win over Northern Illinois, but the margin as much needed for the Badgers after struggling with UNLV and the Citadel this year. P.J. Hill had a huge game as Wisconsin simply ran over the overmatched Huskies. The game against Indiana this week should be surprisingly good as the Hoosiers have to be getting a little desperate to get win #6.

6. (5) Illinois (5-3, 3-2)

One play summed up Illinois this year perfectly. On the muffed punt Kyle Hudson flinched under the most basic of pressures to make a fair catch. Michigan didn't do anything special on that play, as it happens hundreds of times each Saturday in college football. Sean Griffith simply stood there with the pose of, "Go ahead, catch the football. I'll be right here if screw up." Hudson screwed up, and Griffith made him pay. It was an unforced mistake on a very simple play. You can't do that if you want to dance with the best.

Illinois is not quite ready yet. They have the talent, but they must play a perfect game if they hope to beat a better team. An older, more experienced team doesn't let a single play like that do them in. Illinois will still probably get to eight wins and go to a bowl game, but the last two weeks they have to be kicking themselves because they should have won each time.

7. (7) Michigan State (5-3, 1-3)

They have the win over Indiana under their belts, but if Michigan State can't get the job done this week in Iowa a finishing kick of Michigan, at Purdue, and Penn State does not guarantee a sixth win for bowl eligibility. This is where the Northwestern loss hurts double-time, and the fact that the Spartans don't play Minnesota becomes even bigger.

If Iowa's running defense goes back to its usual stout self then Michigan State will struggle this week. They only need to ask Illinois what that is about. Iowa's defense was picked apart by Curtis Painter early this past week, and the running game only got going once the defense got tired from being kept on the field. Michigan State needs to balance some passing if Iowa gets some early stops, or Iowa may find themselves back alive for the post-season.

8. (8) Indiana (5-3, 2-3)

If Indiana doesn't turn the ball over as much against Penn State they win this past weekend. It's a big step forward that Indiana was right there against the Nittany Lions, but they nearly beat them a few years ago when Penn State was terrible but couldn't finish the job. Indiana, like Purdue, has one more chance to beat a traditional power and that comes this week at Wisconsin.

The Hoosiers will find a sixth win in these last four games, and really they deserve to go to a bowl after all they have been through this year. If they can't break through this year it will be a very long time before they do so. With the way Ball State and Northwestern have played and what they are playing for at the moment neither of those games are guarantees.

9. (9) Northwestern (5-3, 2-2)

Alas, if not for Duke. Northwestern actually scares the crap out of me at the moment because they can get on quite a role and score a ton of points. The win over Eastern Michigan was exactly what was expected, a business-like win over a lesser opponent. Now Tyrell Sutton may be back in an expanded role for the Purdue game.

Northwestern is the type of team that can get on a role and win its last four games or really struggle and lose each of its last four games. Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois all have the capacity to both win and lose against them. What makes Northwestern all the more dangerous is that each probably considered the Northwestern game a win before the year started. Do not be shocked if Northwestern wins two or even three of these last ones.

10. (10) Iowa (3-5, 1-4)

It's do or die time for Iowa now. The Iowa defense got picked apart by a Purdue team that finally played exactly like it needs to offensively to beat a good defense, but a home win over Michigan State will make the Hawkeyes a threat for a bowl. Michigan State is the better team right now, but if Iowa digs deeps and sees it still has something to play for the talent is there.

Clearly though Iowa needs to improve its offense in a big way. I don't know if it's a lack of experience or talent, but they will only get worse unless something improves drastically.

11. (11) Minnesota (1-7, 0-4)

Is this rock bottom? North Dakota State is a really good team at the moment and could have done that to a lot of teams. Still, a 1-3 non-conference record against a slate of Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, and North Dakota State will not get it done. That should be at least three big wins for a marginal Big Ten team. Instead the one win came in double overtime as it was.

On the positive side at least Minnesota is not getting blown out in these games. One could say they are a handful of plays on either side of the ball from being 5-3 right now. If the defense can be fixed the Gophers will get a lot better fast with that offense.

Time to start climbing the ladder

Well, we are bowl eligible for the 10^th time in 11 years. Considering that we had only been to five bowl games period before this current stretch that is a great accomplishment. I know the team has taken a lot of flack recently, but congratulations to coach Tiller and company for helping achieve this milestone that a lot of teams can't brag about right now. I know we are far from where we want to be as a program, but we are also far from where we used to be. I won't settle for what we have because we still are short of competing for championships, but I definitely prefer it to what was here before.

Another key point that cannot be overlooked in this is that coach Tiller is just three wins away from tying Jack Mollenkopf as the all-time winningest coach in Purdue history. Mollenkopf also achieved his 84 wins in 15 years at Purdue, while Tiller has been here for just 11. Mollenkopf's overall record was 84-39-9 while Tiller is currently 81-49. While it's not as stellar of a percentage wise it is still a nice achievement.

Let's move past the coaching situation though and back to this season for a moment. Being bowl eligible means we now have a chance in each of the remaining four weeks to climb the ladder to a better bowl game. This is important in a year where as many as ten teams, if things break just right, could be fighting for seven spots. We now know we are ahead of Iowa, and each of the next four weeks we have a chance to slot ourselves ahead of other likely bowl-bound teams. We cannot control our destiny when it comes to getting ahead of Illinois and Wisconsin, but we can put ourselves in position to finish a strong third in the conference. If we continue to play like we did today we have a very good chance of doing just that.

The Good:

Purdue won, Indiana lost, and Notre Dame got shut out at home 38-0 and clinched a losing season. Since Miami also beat Florida State that made for the perfect day college football-wise. Of course, I don't know anything since I am simply a biased fool according to some for picking the Irish to start 1-7. I admit I was wrong. I was optimistic in giving them the one. UCLA ruined it for the rest of us.

Seriously though, there was a lot of good out there today. For the first time since playing Illinois during the 2005 season we kept a Division 1-A team out of the end zone. The one time Iowa seriously came close we were able to make a big play and intercept the ball. That led to one of my favorite types of drives and one that we have not seen out of Purdue in a long time. Iowa was obviously driving to score out of desperation before the Vinson interception. Once we got the ball back starting on our own two we made a long, grinding drive with our running game against a good run defense. Sure we didn't score, but we milked the clock down to the point that even the most miraculous of comebacks was unlikely. It was a brutal, ball-control drive and the drive of drive that good teams make to close games.

On that drive Taylor and Sheets were brilliant. For the first time this year we faced a good run defense and actually committed ourselves to moving the ball on the ground. We didn't have a ton of success at first, but both backs were able to wear the defense down to the tune of 71 yards and a touchdown for Sheets and 67 yards for Taylor. Imagine how much better things would look if Painter wasn't sacked twice for 22 yards. Sheets and Taylor were almost dead even in carries as well, proving that while Sheets can be dominant against lesser defenses, we need the balance of Taylor to make some hay against good defenses.

Speaking of Taylor, what else can you say about this young man? For some reason this young gentleman makes us a better team not just with his play, but with his attitude as well. Five weeks ago we were questioning if he was going to be back at all this year. Now he comes back a week early and helps to re-ignite our offense. He doesn't have a monster game and doesn't dominate, but his play seems to infect our entire offense. Even Sheets plays better with Taylor back there to balance him.

Offensively we had our best game in week by getting over 400 total yards, finding the end zone in each quarter on long drives, and getting more than 100 total rushing yards. That's an easy equation for us to equal a win. We're not a team that can win by throwing the ball 60 times for 400 yards. We need a running game to give us some balance. If you look at our numbers historically you will find that in games where we get as little as 100 total yards on the ground we are very hard to beat. I would give an exact number, but I am too lazy at the moment to look up the exact stat. Since this is a one man operation I don't exactly have the Elias stats bureau backing me up. When I play as Purdue on my playstation game (a game, I know, but bear with me) I like to have a goal of three passing yards for every rushing yard and gaining 400 total yards. It's very hard to lose when you do that in the game, and the same is true in real life. We did that today, and won by 25 points.

On the other side of the ball the defense had a great day. I don't care that it came against a depleted opponent; we kept a Big Ten team out of the end zone. We were able to get in the backfield and cause pressure almost all day and we kept Sims and Young from having a big day against us like they did last season. The offense did its part by building an early lead against an opponent that has struggled to score point all year. The defense did their part by making sure that opponent didn't wake up today.

The Bad:

Come on Joe! You have a kicker that made two field goals from 47 yards last season when he was struggling. This year he is performing much better and has proven he has plenty of distance to make it, yet you go and punt from the 31 yard line? That was just an inexcusable and, pardon my language, a chickenshit coaching call. Not only did Tiller do this once, but he did this twice by going for it on fourth down from the same spot on the field. At least going for it was a little more ballsy, but it is still a lower percentage play against a good defense. Show you believe in your improving kicker by trotting him out there and giving him those kicks.

The only other problem I had today was our inability to wrap up ball carriers in the backfield Christensen regular broke out of sure sacks and continued to find a wide open James Cleveland. I have never even heard of this guy, but we left him so open he had a day like Antonio Gates. He was left open on too many plays, but about half of his catches could have been prevented if we had been able to just tackle the quarterback. This is a case of taking the good with the bad though since we were at least getting to Christensen in the first place.

Up next:

Today we dominated a team that was all defense and no offense. It was a very business-like performance and it's hard to not be pleased as a Purdue fan today. Next we have a team that is almost all offense and no defense. We should have no trouble moving the ball against Northwestern, so if we can slow them down after they've been on a roll of late we should be able to win. A win would also put us ahead of them slotting-wise and practically guarantee a bowl game regardless of what happens the rest of the way. At the very least it would likely means we'd be no worse off than eighth bowl-wise out of ten possible teams, and that means some conference that does not fulfill their bowl commitments would likely pick us up then in a worst case scenario.

More importantly we must take a look at Northwestern's record. They are currently 5-3 overall. This means we can actually win a game against a team with a winning record. We have not beaten a team with a winning record this late in the season since Ohio State in 2004. Since our remaining four teams each currently have a winning record we have to break through this barrier right now. No one will award us a championship for beating Northwestern, but it will be a step in the right direction.

Week 8 Big Ten Preview

I am thankful that the Big Ten schedule makers decided not to send us to Penn State this week, as a home date against a struggling Iowa team is exactly what Purdue needs. While we don't get the luxury of a non-conference breather like Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Minnesota get this week, facing the Hawkeyes is a welcome relief after getting beaten up by Michigan and Ohio State. While I have been an avid defender of the Big Ten to date I have to admit that after last week the rest of the conference behind those two heavyweights appears to be a little disappointing especially since there is no clear-cut number three team in the league. Since there are so many non-conference games this week there will likely be little headway in clearing up a very muddied bowl picture.

After this week we will know a lot more about Michigan State and Illinois, as they take their turns at battling the only two unbeaten teams in conference play. The conference's seven teams sitting at five wins also each have a shot to clinch bowl eligibility this week, but four of those 5-2 teams play each other in the form of Penn State at Indiana and Michigan at Illinois. I would consider both of those home teams winning upsets if they happened, and it would make for an even murkier bowl picture.

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK:

#25 Michigan (5-2, 3-0) at Illinois (5-2, 2-1) 8pm Saturday

A Michigan win here would most likely end the Big Ten race for anyone but Michigan or Ohio State, forcing everyone else to have that game crammed down their throats once again at the end of the season. A Wolverine win coupled with a Buckeye win would give both a two game lead over everyone else in the conference with four games, and in some cases three conference games left to play. The Wolverines played their most complete game of the season last week, but benefitted from Purdue pretty much rolling over and playing dead.

Michigan got 28 points off of turnovers last week, and Illinois is a team that has struggled with turnover issues for some time. I am very cool on the Illini after a pretty inexcusable loss last week at Iowa, and they are not in good shape if they have decided to go with a quarterback shuffled after standing behind Juice Williams earlier in the year. Michigan is good enough to stop their running game, and unlike Dennis Dixon Juice Williams cannot pass his way out of trouble if he can't run. Clearly if you stop Illinois from running they are mortal, that is why I give Michigan an edge.

PREDICTION: Michigan 24, Illinois 20

Northwestern (4-3, 2-2) vs. Eastern Michigan (2-5) at Ford Field 7pm Friday

This is a very strange midseason out of conference Friday night road game for the Wildcats and one they simply must have if they are to go bowling this year. IN an astonishing turn of events there may be room yet for someone like Northwestern to get into a bowl because Conference USA could easily fall short of its six bowl commitments, opening the door for the Cats if they get to six wins. Some projections even have this as a preview of their bowl game, placing the Cats in the Motor City Bowl. I am sure their dream is to go to Detroit the day after Christmas.

Will C.J. Bacher cool off? I hope for Purdue's sake he gets the rest of it out of his system this week because that offense coming to West Lafayette for homecoming scares the bejesus out of me and I don't even know what a bejesus is. Even though they lost to Duke and Eastern gave Michigan a decent game I don't expect the Wildcats to have too much trouble. Since they are averse to playing defense however…

PREDICTION: Northwestern 38, Eastern Michigan 21

Penn State (5-2, 2-2) at Indiana (5-2, 2-2) noon Saturday

Well Indiana, you have everyone's attention and it is homecoming, time to prove you really belong at the big boy table in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers get a nationally televised game against a name team in Bloomington and chance number to get the elusive sixth win they have been searching for since 1994. With Wisconsin coming up on the road next week this is probably Indiana's best shot to beat one of the better teams in the conference, and they have the offense to do it if the defense can come to play.

Unfortunately Indiana is fresh off of giving up 52 points to Michigan State while Penn State had a very impressive dominant win over Wisconsin last week. Indiana has the horses to pull off the win especially if they continue to get into the backfield. Under pressure Anthony Morelli is as shaky as Britney's career at the moment, and for whatever reason Indiana leads the nation in sacks at 32. If they can force Morelli to start chucking the ball with reckless abandon Penn State will go down and the Hoosiers will have a critical win for their bowl hopes. Penn State is the better team, but Morelli is the X factor in a negative way.

PREDICTION: Penn State 24, Indiana 23

Iowa (3-4, 1-3) at Purdue (5-2, 1-2)

Even though Iowa is a bit down at the moment this is a must win for the Boilermakers. We need to stop this losing streak at two games or things will get a whole lot worse before they get better. Right now I am scared of an Iowa defense that just held a pretty good Illinois offense to six points and an explosive and unpredictable Northwestern offense next week. If Purdue loses this game they could find themselves easily at 5-5 facing good Michigan State and Indiana teams just to get to a bowl game.

Iowa still cannot score this year, and I have actually been quite pleased with the play of Purdue's defense even in the last two losses. Against Michigan four times they were given a short field to defend because of turnovers and three of those times Mike Hart or Marion Manningham simply made a great play for a score. The rest of the time the defense was exhausted from the offense not helping them out. I am confident that if the offense wakes up and can get 3-4 scoring drives together this week it will be more than enough, as Iowa has only gotten to 20 points once.

PREDICTION: Purdue 24, Iowa 14

North Dakota State (6-0) at Minnesota (1-5, 0-3)

Is this a measure of how good North Dakota State is becoming, or just how bad Minnesota is this season? The Bison are one of the best teams in Division 1-AA and because of their provisional status from moving up from Division II they aren't even eligible for the 1-AA playoffs. Currently North Dakota State is ranked #2 in the 1-AA poll, They've scored at least 28 points in every game, and they already own a 30 point win over Central Michigan. Considering that the Chips are one of the better teams in the MAC and the Gophers have already struggled with lesser teams from that conference means Goldy is in trouble.

Minnesota barely got past North Dakota State last season on a 10-9 score, and the Bison are already a better team from last year. Minnesota is clearly worse than in the past, but they have been competitive at least by getting to overtime in three of six games so far. How weird would it be if they didn't have overtime like in the old days and Minnesota was sitting at 0-3-3 as a record? This is a rarity, but I am going with the Division 1-AA team over a big Ten team at home.

North Dakota State 31, Minnesota 30

Northern Illinois (1-5) at Wisconsin (5-2, 2-2)

Wisconsin comes in very angry after a two game road trip in the league led to a pair of losses. Northern Illinois comes in to Madison having barely beaten Idaho and with a loss to 1-AA Southern Illinois. It's time for Wisconsin to play with a little bit of pride for once and simply dominate a team. They did not do so against UNLV or The Citadel and got away with it. They've struggled the past two weeks against Penn State and Illinois, but they are a little banged up offensively. It's time for them to tune up before a big bowl push against Indiana next week.

This is the easiest game of the week to pick.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 37, Northern Illinois 10

Michigan State (5-2, 1-2) at #1 Ohio State (7-0, 3-0)

If this game was being played in East Lansing there might be a modicum of concern. Michigan State got things going in a positive direction in a big way last week by dominating Indiana early and often. That showed a surprising amount of fortitude for a team that has had a habit of reeling off long losing streaks in recent seasons. Asking them to go into Columbus and beat the number one team in the country is an awful lot to ask at this early juncture, but the Spartans impressed me enough last week to give me the impression it was at least possible.

Conventional wisdom says that Ohio State's defense will dominate once again against an offense that leans toward the one-dimensional. I happen to think Michigan State has a puncher's chance though. They've played with more emotion the past few weeks than most teams in the conference, and really only lost a pair of shootouts because the defense couldn't get a key stop against Northwestern and Wisconsin. Ohio State should win, but don't be surprised if Michigan State makes them sweat a bit for it. If Ohio State wins in a walk we know they are the real deal.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 20, Michigan State 10

NATIONAL GAMES OF THE WEEK:

Can Kentucky do it again? With undefeated teams dropping left and right #15 Florida at #7 Kentucky has a ton of intrigue to it. Usually you only see rankings like this for basketball between these schools, but the Wildcats proved they were the real deal by knocking off LSU last week. Surprisingly Florida can get right back into the title race even with two losses if teams ahead of them keep losing. Purdue fans should be interested in this game because a strong finish could put us in the Outback bowl against one of them. Kentucky has already taken out a pair of ranked teams at home, and a win here may make them the favorite in the SEC. Kentucky 27, Florida 24

Another game of interest to Purdue fans as far as bowl opponents go is #24 Texas Tech at #16 Missouri. With a pair of tie-ins at the level of bowl I expect us to go to we very well could see one of these teams in either the Insight or Alamo bowls. Missouri has a very balanced offense and has played well each week except in a loss at Oklahoma. Texas Tech and Michael Crabtree are putting up numbers that are unattainable even on playstation. 78 catches for 1244 yards and 17 touchdowns are insane numbers for a single season. When you consider Crabtree has done this in just seven games and was even kept out of the end zone last week against Texas A&M you have to simply watch this kid in awe. Missouri seems to be on a mission though. Missouri 42, Texas Tech 38

LAST WEEK: 4-4 SEASON RECORD 52-16

Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable week 8

As a Purdue fan we so rarely see anything coming from Bloomington that is good football-wise, but this week's Big Ten Bloggers' roundtable is much like the Hoosiers season this year: A pleasant exception to that rule. This week the roundtable is headed up by none other than John of The Hoosier Report. John has posted only a couple of questions this week, but they are great questions for discussion as we head down the home stretch of the season.

1. Call your shot. We are halfway through the Big Ten season (or, at least, most of us are). What will be your team's final record? Where, if anywhere, will your team be spending late December/early January? Who will win the Big Ten?

I started the season with a prediction of a 9-3 record and I am sticking with it. So far I have been dead on as I had us at 5-2 at this point with losses to Michigan and Ohio State. The only difference so far is that I thought we would be much more competitive in those two games than we were. Finishing 9-3 will likely put us in the Alamo Bowl at somewhere around the #4 slot, with an outside chance of reaching the Outback bowl depending on how the rest of the conference breaks. I wouldn't like to head back to the Champs Sports bowl for two reasons: 1. it would be a bit of a disappointment falling to fifth, and 2. if we play Miami from the ACC there my marriage will be in danger on game night. Right now I expect to win all our remaining home games with Michigan State being the most difficult test. Depending on whom we play in the bowl game then could mean just the second 10 win season ever for Purdue, and first since 1979.

I think we will win at Indiana in one of the best Bucket games in recent memory, while the Penn State trip looms as another chance to prove ourselves, but I tend to think we'll just crap the bed like we have done of late. I had us losing that game anyway, and won't believe we'll pull the surprise until I see it. At least we should be able to beat a team with a winning record down the stretch, as we'll have four chances to with Northwestern, Indiana, Penn State, and Michigan State.

In the Big Ten it is frustrating to see that no one has been able to rise up and shake off the recent dominance of Michigan and Ohio State in a year when both looked to be down a little. It seems like every team except Ohio State has at least one loss that made people go, "HUH?" While Purdue's two losses weren't unexpected, the margins sure were. These two teams will probably go unbeaten the rest of the way and the winner will be the conference champion. I'm sure the league office would be cheering hard for Michigan in that scenario, as the only way the Big Ten is getting two into the BCS is if Ohio State loses the Big Ten, but finishes 11-1. Right now my money is on the Buckeyes.

2. How is your team's coaching situation? Clearly, this varies from school to school, with some coaches approaching retirement (Carr/Paterno), some who are just starting out (Brewster/Fitzgerald), the unique case of Bill Lynch, and others who seem to be in their primes. If your coach is on the tail end of his career, where do you see things going from here? If he's still early in his tenure, any buyer's remorse? If he's in he's somewhere in the middle, are you happy or wishing things would go a different direction? How does your view correspond to the "majority" view among your school's fans?

Right now I am disappointed with our coaching situation because I can see the Gene Keady syndrome setting in. I am very alarmed by the fact we have been unable to be even competitive against a ranked team in three years. It is clear to me that Coach Tiller is closer to retirement than he is to being head coach for another decade, but who can argue with what he has done? He has taken a team that was mired at the bottom of the league and has made it into a program that consistently cranks out 7-8 wins a year and makes a bowl game. Of the 119 Division 1-A teams only 16 can say they have been to bowl games in nine of the past ten seasons, and Purdue is one of them. Barring an utter collapse down the stretch Purdue will get to a bowl game this year to make it 10 in 11. If not for a six-game slide in 2005 Purdue would be one of just six teams to go to a bowl every year for 10 years. Some "name" programs not on this list of 16 include Penn State, Notre Dame, USC, UCLA, and Oklahoma.

It is a testament to what Tiller has done that Purdue is to the point of being disappointed in an eight win season. Still, there are always those that naturally want more and lately the Boilers have been sliding back, rather than moving forward. In 2004, the last time we faced Michigan and Ohio State we suffered a 2-point loss to the Wolverines on a fumble while in field goal range in the final minute and we beat Ohio State. This year we scored one meaningful touchdown while each game was (briefly) in question. I would like for Purdue to work out a plan where Tiller can definitely retire and receive the accolades he deserves, while still setting things up for a smooth transition. Of course, Purdue mishandled the basketball situation and the program went into the toilet for about five years before finally recovering.

The time for change will be sooner rather than later as clearly evidence by Tiller's desire to retire soon. Hopefully he can go out with the grace he deserves. With four more wins (that can be achieved this season) Tiller will tie Jack Mollenkopf as the winningest coach in the history of the program. I am fine with him staying as long as he wants to stay, but we need to start moving forward again and at least be competitive with some good teams. I am tired of getting blown out in every chance we have to make the program look good.

BONUS BASKETBALL QUESTION: If you plan to cover basketball, give us a brief outlook for your team. Who is your best player? What do you expect from the team?

I haven't decided yet if I will be covering any basketball this year, but I may keep things going for a weekly update just to have something to write about. During basketball season I usually cover two games a week for the newspapers that I write for, plus I do a weekly feature on Hickoryhusker.com, so it takes a lot of time out of my writing schedule.

The Boiler basketball program this year looks to be very young, but extremely talented. I am honestly so excited about watching this team in about two years I cannot stand it, especially if we land Tyler Zeller. Purdue has a whopping seven newcomers in a recruiting class that ranked second nationally. What is best is that all of them are "Purdue guys" in that they play a hard-nosed, workmanlike style.

Sophomore Chris Kramer is the emerging leader of this team and he is recovering from two offseason surgeries to relieve compartment syndrome in both of his legs. You can already tell he is the type of player Purdue fans absolutely love, but everyone else in the Big Ten will hate for the next three years.

Freshman E'twaun Moore has a lot expected of him this year, especially after leading East Chicago Central to the Class 4A state title in Indiana last year over IU-bound Eric Gordon and North Central. Moore is a four-star recruit along with JaJuan Johnson, Robbie Hummel, and Scott Martin as the four big freshmen of the class. Look for Juco transfer Nemanja Calasan to make an impact as well, as he is being compared to Brian Cardinal in some circles. Key returners are Terrance Crump, Marcus Green, and Keaton Grant, providing much needed experience to go with the youth movement. Crump is the lone senior on the roster.

I expect this team to be very talented, but its youth will come out at times. An NCAA berth is not out of the question, but where they will really be served is in about two years when the group has gelled together and may compete for a national title.

Big Ten Week 7 in review

After this past weekend it's plain to me that Michigan and Ohio State are still the class of the Big Ten and their game on November 18^th will once again decide the conference title while everyone else is in a dogfight for third place. Those two are the only ones left unbeaten in conference play, and only Illinois, with games remaining against each, has less than two losses. Assuming a split at best for Illinois with the traditional powers leaves seven teams fighting for third place with two losses or less. Since anyone can beat anyone else I have no idea who will come away with third place, and it is a big deal because third place means a lucrative New Year's Day Bowl bid. Consider this: Had Northwestern beaten Duke like expected there would be eight 5-2 teams in the conference right now behind unbeaten Ohio State. Iowa's win over Illinois allows them to hold on to the hope for a bowl for one more week at least as well, meaning it is still possible for 10 teams to go bowling if enough spots can be found.

But how do you pick that number three team. Is it Illinois? Not until they find a passing game. Penn State? They put a hurt on Wisconsin but they're still shaky. Wisconsin? They've lost two in a row before facing Michigan and Ohio State. Purdue? Maybe, but they must hold serve at home the next two weeks to gain a measure of respectability. Michigan State? They are a lot like Wisconsin. Indiana? Let's get by Wisconsin and Penn State the next two weeks before we move them there. I'll try to address the state of the conference with my projected bowl for each time right now in this week's Power Rankings.

WEEK 7 BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS

1. (1) Ohio State (7-0, 3-0) Projected bowl: Rose (at minimum)

After the bye week (what else would you call a 48-3 stomping) they face Michigan State, who has twice before ruined perfect seasons in the Horseshoe. The new number 1 team in all the land is now being talked about like a paper tiger since Purdue and Washington, the Buckeyes' two best wins, have stumbled of late. With that defense however the Buckeyes will be in every game. This team is better than most realize and since no one outside of Michigan seems to want to separate themselves from the pack right now you have to consider them in the driver's seat for New Orleans.

The two remaining road games stand out as stumbling blocks since Illinois and Wisconsin have yet to play well on the road. The trip to Penn State could be tricky if the Nittany Lions continue to improve, and the same is true for the trip to Michigan. The Buckeyes have perhaps the most difficult remaining schedule in the Big Ten, but with everyone else already at two losses they can afford a stumble and still get to at least Pasadena unless that stumble is against Illinois or Michigan. Even then the Wolverines and Illini have to be perfect the rest of the way.

2. (5) Michigan (5-2, 3-0) Projected bowl: Capitol One

Either Michigan was asleep or Appalachian State played absolutely out of their minds in week one. The Wolverines sure looked impressive on Saturday, but they were helped by four Purdue turnovers in Purdue territory that led to touchdowns. Michigan is simply too good of a team when you leave them with a short field like that, and a dropped interception by Dan Bick would have taken another three points off the board. Purdue pretty much handed the Wolverines 31 points on mistakes, and no one is going to lose at home when that happens.

While everything went wrong for the Boilermakers in Ann Arbor everything went right for the Wolverines. Now Michigan must go on the road and face an Illinois that has cooled off, but has already taken down a pair of ranked teams at home. They also have a difficult remaining schedule, but at least should have a breather in two weeks when Minnesota comes to town in the battle for the Little Brown Jug.

3. (7) Penn State (5-2, 2-2) Projected bowl: Outback

Penn State may have had the best week of anyone considering all that was going on off the field for them. Unfortunately it is at this point in the power rankings that you can really start drawing teams out of a hat. The week ahead will help, but everyone from here on in is even in my eyes. No one for the Nittany Lions had real eye-popping numbers this week, but it was a solid game offensively all around. The story was the defense as they stifled the Wisconsin running game.

With Temple left on the schedule Penn State gets its six wins, and if the Penn State of this past Saturday shows up they probably win four of their games and even give Ohio State a good run. If the Penn State of earlier in the season shows up a split will of the four remaining conference games could prove to be difficult. I tend to agree with the earlier sentiment, as defense is the name of the game right now in the Big Ten. If you can stop someone you can win.

4. (4) Purdue (5-2, 1-2) Projected bowl: Alamo

We don't deserve this, but I am not giving up on this team. I still think nine wins is a real possibility, and will only begin to panic if we struggle against a bad, bad Iowa team this week. I refuse to believe we'll lose to a team that lost at Iowa State. Northwestern, Michigan State, and Indiana can still be wins as well, and three of those four winnable games are all at home. It's important to remember that Michigan and Ohio State are gone and won't be back this year. Everyone else outside of Penn State was before the season started and can still be projected as a win. Purdue is also here because, unlike hte teams below them, they have not had an unexpected loss so far. Only the margins have been ugly.

I'll admit it, we looked like absolute crap on Saturday. We needed to play a much cleaner game than we did in order to win, didn't do so, and because of that it turned into a blowout. Right now Iowa is still beatable. Our M.O. this season has been to build an early lead and then coast, well, what better team to do that against than Iowa, who has struggled to score points all year. I said before the season anything less than nine wins should be considered a failure and I am sticking to it. Nine wins will put us in Texas in late December, so this ranking is based more on projections than actual results. Now if we crap the bed again against Iowa I am dropping us at least four spots, but if we're 7-2 in two weeks things will look much better.

5. (2) Illinois (5-2, 3-1) Projected bowl: Champs Sports

Was Illinois looking ahead this week? I don't know. I've been saying it for weeks though; if you make Illinois have to pass the ball they suddenly aren't nearly as good of a football team. Iowa did just that and made the Illini pay. It didn't help that the old Ron Zook showed up with just some dumb, dumb coaching moves. Never give a team a second chance at completing a third down, but Illinois did just that on the play before Iowa's touchdown. Now Ron Zook has gone from saying, "Juice Williams is our quarterback," to, "Juice will start, but Eddie McGee will play." Come on Ron, why not announce to the world that you have zero confidence with your starter throwing the football.

Illinois will still make a bowl game, but Michigan and Ohio State are still looming. They are good enough to take away the ground game and make the Illini throw. That's two losses for the Illini even before they get a nutty Northwestern team to finish the season. Don't count out Ball State either, who has nothing to lose when they play the Illini.

6. (3) Wisconsin (5-2, 2-2) Projected bowl: Insight

Yes I know Purdue lost two in a row, but at least they were to teams they weren't expected to beat. Wisconsin probably was the better team in each of their last two games and they looked bad in both games. Something is definitely off with the Badgers right now, and if they struggle with Indiana in two weeks a five loss season may be in order for a team that some said would contend for the National Championship.

P.J. Hill is a bit banged up and Penn State held him in check. The Badgers are also being held to the same standard of still having to face both Michigan and Ohio State with those games being projected as losses. If they win one of those they will definitely move up, but right now they are falling.

7. (8) Michigan State (5-2, 1-2) Projected bowl: Motor City

That was a very nice bounce back win by the Spartans to get the Old Brass Spittoon back from Indiana. Closing the season with Purdue and Penn State also gives them two excellent chances to slot themselves ahead of other teams bowl-wise. That is also what makes the win over Indiana even more important, as it gives them leverage over the Hoosiers come selection time. There are still some causes for concern though.

Michigan State is a run heavy offense and Iowa proved it can slow down run-heavy offenses. Michigan State passes the ball better than the Illini giving them an edge against Iowa. The way Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick were running the ball on Saturday gives them a chance against anyone in the country if they can keep going. A shocking win against Ohio State in Columbus (when the number 1 team has gone down each of the last two weeks) would cause a big jump to occur and make me officially give up figuring out this conference.

8. (6) Indiana (5-2, 2-2) Projected bowl: eligible, but spot may not be available.

No one has been hurt by the supposed struggle of the Big Ten as much as the Hoosiers. Since everyone in the conference not named Ohio State has at least two losses overall it is unlikely that the conference will get two BCS bids to move everyone up one slot unless someone knocks off Ohio State to win the conference and the Buckeyes get tabbed as an at large at 11-1. That means there are only seven slots this year for as many as ten teams, and Indiana missed a chance to slot themselves ahead of someone with the loss to Michigan State.

Now they must face Penn State at home and Wisconsin on the road. A win in either would guarantee a bowl because of the slotting system, but a loss in each game might mean that even with as many as seven wins (assuming wins over Ball State and Northwestern) the Hoosiers could be forced to stay home if they lose the Bucket to Purdue. They wouldn't be chosen in a tie over someone they lost to, and right now they don't have a win against anyone ahead of them.

9. (9) Northwestern (4-3, 2-2) Projected bowl: Eligible, but spot may not be available.

Northwestern is in the same boat as Indiana above them, but a spot back because of the Duke loss. They face a Friday night game against Eastern Michigan in Detroit this week, but the Wildcats simply must beat Iowa and Indiana to have any real shot at a bowl. Getting to six wins would slot them as ninth at best in the mix. Much like Purdue, Michigan and Ohio State are already behind them, and they don't have to face more talented teams in Penn State or Wisconsin this year. In the overtime win over Minnesota Northwestern at least gave me one correct prediction in a week where I went 1-4 in the intra-conference predictions.

There is the minor detail of the defense being compared to the French Army the past two weeks, but as long as C.J. Bacher throws for more than 500 yards a game they are at least fun to watch. An upset at Purdue is not impossible and if the Boilers continue to play like crap I would say it is downright probable. They can also beat Indiana and Iowa to put them at eight wins and that would definitely send them somewhere for the holidays.

10. (10) Iowa (3-4, 1-3) Projected bowl: Not eligible

The band Slipknot is from the state of Iowa and they have a song entitled Skin Ticket that mentions (rather shouts) the line, "Keeping myself alive through your empathy." That is appropriate because that is what Iowa did this past week in beating Illinois as far as its bowl hopes. I still don't think they have enough of an offense to score if Purdue wakes up this week at home or against teams like Northwestern or Michigan State. If the Hawkeyes win in West Lafayette this week they will really make themselves alive while sending Purdue into even more of a tailspin, so it is a critical game for both teams.

The defense is obviously not that bad if it can slow down the Illinois running game. Unfortunately Purdue, Michigan State, and Northwestern can throw the ball just a little and I still say just three touchdowns is a safe margin against the Hawkeyes.

11. Minnesota (1-6, 0-4) Projected bowl: Not eligible

Well, Minnesota was at 3-6 last year on the brink of elimination facing North Dakota State before turning things around with an unbeaten run to a bowl game. That will not happen this year unless Minnesota figures out very quickly how to hold someone under 30 points. At least Goldy can relax a bit knowing that his best defensive effort (30 points against Ohio State) came against the current number 1 team in the country.

Embarrassment redux

If I knew I had a chance at a refund I would contact the Purdue athletic department for my $110 back from two tickets for yesterday's game and $65 for the hotel stay Friday night. I have never seen a team more underprepared and more scared to play another team they could beat in my entire life. The Ohio State loss was embarrassing, but I was willing to write it off as simply a good team doing the job. There is, however, no excuse for not even being competitive yesterday, especially the way things started.

Let's look at the first couple of series. We played well and got a stop on our first defensive series then a fluke play leads to an early touchdown. Normally we would go in the tank at that point, but I'll give credit where credit is due. Though the offense wasn't moving the ball the defense kept fighting and got us the ball in scoring position. Since Michigan was vulnerable against a running quarterback we actually attacked that vulnerability and scored on a nice little running play. It is 7-7 now and we've evened things turnover-wise.

Even after a long drive we showed some promise by getting a stop for a field goal, and Hart wasn't running wild on us yet. Once the Sheets fumble occurred (and I still have no idea why Dierking got the start) the wheels absolutely came off. We had dropped passes. We had throws into triple coverage for interceptions when we only needed to run out the clock on the half. We had throws to receivers that weren't even there. We had our best running back banished to the bench because he fumbles again at a critical time (shades of Montrell Lowe at this point). We couldn't even intercept the ball right, as Dan Bick had a throw right into his chest for an easy goal line pick that he batted down instead of tried to catch, costing us three more points.

We were given a blueprint on how to beat Michigan by Appalachian State, Oregon, and even Eastern Michigan and Northwestern to some extent. You spread the field. You make the quarterback a threat to run the ball (which we seem to have forgotten Painter can be). You actually play up on receivers instead of giving a talent like Mario Manningham a 10 yard cushion every time (although why would we start doing this now?). Once again this trend has happened. WE have seen where teams are vulnerable and failed to adjust to exploit that vulnerability. We have once again started out hot, but never change our own style of play. Have we forgotten other teams have satellite capability, DVR's, and coaching staff to analyze our play? I think we have because by midseason everyone knows what we're going to run, but we refuse to change anything so they are ready for it. This goes right through to game time as we simply refuse to adjust anything when something is going wrong.

Manningham is running long fade routes, so maybe we might try jamming him at the line to throw off his timing like Michigan always does to our receivers. The spread option painter ran so well two years ago was right there so many times, so why not have him keep the ball and run once or twice? Cliff Avril, our best end, is getting manhandled by their first round left tackle. Why don't we switch him over and have him rush from the other side? It is simple things like this that we refuse to do and it is frustrating as hell! It's like we're trying to screw in a flat head screw with a Phillips head screwdriver and wondering why things aren't working when we have a flathead right there.

Being down 31-7 at the half was frustrating especially considering 21 of those points were gifts off of turnovers. The defense was worn out before they even had a chance to settle in and I felt they were doing at least a respectable job against Hart early on. By the time the second half came around though they were naturally gassed and had nothing left.

Being in the stands it almost seemed like we tightened up in the environment of the Big House, when I have been to much more intimidating stadiums crowd-wise. The Michigan fans around us were very friendly and the crowd never seemed as big as the announced attendance was. I have seen us play in much more intimidating and even louder environments at Ohio State, Minnesota, and even Hawaii, but at least we were competitive. Yesterday it was like we remembered we're not allowed to play well in Michigan Stadium and followed accordingly.

So where do we go from here? I am trying to get myself excited about the Outback bowl as our best shot, but having just gotten drilled by the two best teams in the conference when I know we should have at least made one of them a game it is hard to get excited. Yesterday proved that the Big Ten is wiiiiiiiiiiiiide open behind Michigan and Ohio State, as everyone except them and Illinois now have at least two losses in conference play. It is time to us to re-evaluate things and, more importantly, wake up the offense that has fallen asleep. Painter played like crap yesterday, and he needs to snap out of it.

We have an Iowa team at home we absolutely have to beat in order to stop the bleeding. They have a good defense, but they can't seem to score at all now, so we need to score early and put them away. We have a Northwestern team that is now probably going to be a fun shootout since they can't be stopped, but they can't seem to stop anyone. I know we have the ability to beat Penn State, but I have zero confidence it will happen after these last two weeks. Michigan State is a team I can't figure out, and Indiana is tough, but beatable in Bloomington. There is no reason whatsoever we cannot win four of these next five, giving us nine wins. Unfortunately at 9-3 we would be back to the old 9-0 against teams we should beat, but 0-3 against good teams. We have to win at least four of these next five, and we have to look drastically better against a Penn State team that is getting its groove back.

Whether this will actually happen though is a matter of debate. I

Week 7 Big Ten Preview

I am hoping that my recent history of going to see Purdue play on the road is wrong. I have been attending at least one road game since the 2000 season and in all but two cases my first visit to a new venue have ended with a trademark stomach-punch style loss for the Boilers. Here is Purdue's record when I see them on the road, with the year and result of the first game I attended at each venue.

At Bowl game 0-1 (the 2000 Rose Bowl, which is the easiest of these losses)

At Illinois 2-1 (1^st visit in 2002, a 38-31 overtime loss that saw us overcome a 24-0 deficit to take a 31-24 lead)

At Indiana 2-1 (1^st visit in 2001, the only time we've lost the bucket in a decade)

At Hawaii 0-1 (last year in a similar game to the Illinois one above)

At Cincinnati 1-0 (2001)

At Northwestern 1-0 (Last season)

At Ohio State 0-1 (2003, a 16-13 overtime loss on a missed field goal)

At Minnesota 0-1 (2005, a 42-35 double-OT loss that started a six game slide)

A 6-6 record on the road is pretty good on the surface, but I am really tired of getting my guts ripped out, then having a 3-4 hour drive home for the privilege. I'm beginning to wonder if I am simply a bad luck charm and if I should stop going to road games altogether. Even my Miami on-the-road record is 0-1 after last year's disastrous showing in Louisville.

Anyway, it's a big week in the Big Ten as most of the games are all about bowl positioning. Ohio State plays out of conference guaranteeing they will stay undefeated and at the top, but everyone else faces a big game that will go a long way towards deciding what their postseason destinations will be. While the Buckeyes are the only team already at six wins, four more can join them with a good week this week. One of the teams aiming for number six is playing in this week's Big Ten Game of the Week.

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK:

#24 Purdue (5-1, 1-1) at Michigan (4-2, 2-0) 12pm

It will probably be a very long time before the Boilermakers get as good of a shot to pull off a win in Ann Arbor. During Purdue's last three visits they carried a 14-1 combined record into their game at Michigan plus a top 10 ranking. They have lost those games by a combined 93-25 score to quickly fall out of the top 10 each time. That's a pretty rough history to face even if it hasn't been 41 years since your last win in a venue. Michigan has been about as unimpressive as a 4-2 team can be, struggling to get past Eastern Michigan and Northwestern in recent weeks.

If there is one thing Purdue has always been vulnerable against though it is a team with a good running back. Right now there are few in college football better than Mike Hart. As a true freshman three years ago Hart ran for 206 yards and the Wolverines' only touchdown in a 16-14 win in West Lafayette. If he gets on track early Saturday he could be a great equalizer. He's going to get his yards, it is just a matter of Purdue's offense recovering and actually doing something in Ann Arbor for the first time in decades.

Purdue has never had a better shot to win in the Big House than they do this year. All the offense has to do is get back on track, run the ball semi-effectively without abandoning the running game, and not turn it over. Michigan is vulnerable against a spread attack, has poor special teams, and is a team struggling in both the red zone and passing the ball despite having very talented receivers. I know I predicted a big loss for the Boilers in my preseason preview, but that is before seeing both teams play. If Purdue can't win this year, it may be another 40 years before we finally do.

PREDICTION: Purdue 31, Michigan 30

#19 Illinois (5-1, 3-0) at Iowa (2-4, 0-3) 12pm

Someone stick a fork in the Hawkeyes because they look done. Since thoroughly dominating Purdue last year they have fallen completely off a cliff and can't seem to get anything going offensively. Even that solid defensive line is going to get tired if the offense can keep the ball for a few minutes to give them rest. Right now all you have to do to beat Iowa is build a lead early then bunch up to stop the run. The bowl hopes are fleeting, but Iowa desperately needs this game to keep them alive. Facing a hot Illini team will not get the job done.

This has the potential to be blowout city if the Illinois defense plays to its ability. Everyone seems to be kicking the Hawkeyes while they are down and I honestly see no way that Iowa can win this game if Illinois merely plays their style of football. Iowa only has a shot if Illinois gets turnover crazy and completely falls asleep defensively.

PREDICTION: Illinois 27, Iowa 7

Minnesota (1-5, 0-3) at Northwestern (3-3, 1-2) 12pm

It's time to officially label the Wildcats as "punchy" because they will not go away against anyone. Northwestern gave Michigan a pretty good fight two weeks ago and then shocked Sparty on the road last week. Now a win against lowly Minnesota can officially begin the bowl discussion again, which is a miracle after losing to Duke. I like the Wildcats offense, and they have shown that they will be in every game as long as they are moving the ball.

Minnesota's problem is clearly its defense, particularly against the pass. This is not good news considering C.J. Bacher lit up Michigan State, a pretty good defensive team in the first part of the season, for 520 yards through the air. At least Minnesota has been able to score a bit on its own to make games fun. In watching part of last week's IU game at lunch today (on one of four TV's in the free world that gets the Big Ten Network) they were able to move up and down the field with IU at first before bogging down. Look for another game this week in which both teams are in the 30's

PREDICTION: Northwestern 42, Minnesota 31

Kent State (3-3) at #3 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) 12pm

I am going to be really, really mad if Kent State shocks the world and pulls this game off in the 'shoe. What we have seen from Ohio State so far is that they have the capability to shut down any offense no matter who they're facing at home or on the road. The defense is like Mariano Rivera in October right now. If you give Ohio State a two score lead it is game over. Now we're expecting a Kent State team that has lost to Miami (OH), and Akron to compete? Look for a methodical, go through the motions type of win this week.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 30, Kent State 3

#15 Wisconsin (5-1, 2-1) at Penn State (4-2, 1-2) 3:30pm

Penn State is already out of the conference title chase with two losses, but it can sure play the role of spoiler with games left against Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, and Purdue. Against a slate like that they can at least get back into contention for a New Year's Day bowl quite easily, and that will begin this week against Wisconsin. Unfortunately they have had a bit of ugliness hovering over the program this week with Austin Scott getting kicked off the team, then accused of rape. This doesn't even take into consideration JoePa's road rage incident.

This has the makings of a defensive slugfest, but it will probably turn into another shootout like Wisconsin's last two games have. Penn State is helped by the fact P.J. Hill is a little banged up, thereby evening out the running games a little. Tyler Donovan is playing better at the quarterback position than Anthony Morelli, so I will give him the edge. And I thought at one time Penn State only had a difficult game at Michigan standing between them and an unbeaten season because they got the next three biggest Big Ten teams all at home.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 27, Penn State 17

Indiana (5-1, 2-1) at Michigan State (4-2, 0-2) 7pm

If Indiana wins this homecoming contest on the road we could be living in a scary new world on Sunday afternoon. According to the Indianapolis Star, the Hoosiers were last ranked on September 20, 1994. Being just outside the top 25 this week and with one team (Florida State) having already fallen at the bottom of the polls a win will not only guarantee they will "play 13", but it will possibly put them in the top 25. It will be a bizarre world when long time programs like Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State, Nebraska, and Michigan were not ranked but Indiana is. I think I will begin stockpiling canned goods just to be safe.

On the other side, I almost feel sorry for Michigan State fans, as a loss this week would most likely mean an 0-4 conference start after starting 4-0. Even a new coach hasn't been able to turn around the sudden freefall of this team, as people are selling on them faster than Enron. If they lose this game an almost sure bowl bid will be in jeopardy as they face a final three of Michigan, at Purdue, and Penn State needing one win to get to six. Who knew the day would come when Michigan State would need this more than IU. Unfortunately, the Hoosiers are playing too well right now and I don't think they will blow the first of six chances to get that sixth win.

PREDICTION: Indiana 37, Michigan State 31

NATIONAL GAMES OF THE WEEK:

Maybe it is the black and gold color scheme, but Missouri is really beginning to grow on me. For them the Illinois win to open the season is looking better and better, and they can take a major step forward in this week's first national game of the week: #11 Missouri at #5 Oklahoma. My only glimpse of Oklahoma was during the rain delay of the Eastern Illinois game when they pounded Miami in Norman. Since then they have a WTF type loss at Colorado. Missouri seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on, and a win here put them in the Big 12 driver's seat. Oklahoma is the better team though, and they are at home. Oklahoma 24, Missouri 20

The second game I will take a look at is #1 LSU at #18 Kentucky. The last few weeks have proven that no one is safe from getting beaten, and a win by the Wildcats here would through almost everything out the window. Paired with Missouri above these dueling Tigers represent two of just ten undefeated teams left. Since no one loss should ever be placed in the national title game ahead of an undefeated BCS conference team a loss here shove LSU back in line waiting for six more teams to lose. One of the unbeatens is Hawaii, who with an incredibly weak schedule will only get into the title game if several teams lose two games. Even then it's not a guarantee. I like the moxie of Kentucky, and think they have the home field to pull it off. Kentucky 24, LSU 22

LAST WEEK: 6-2, SEASON RECORD: 48-12

GUEST POST: Maize N' Brew views Saturday's Purdue-Michigan game

This week Dave from Maize N' Brew shares his thoughts in a Q and A session with me on this week's game in the Big House.

Off the Tracks: Purdue has not won at the Big House since 1966 when Bob Griese wasquarterback. In that time they have sent some very good teams upthere, but have had just two out of 16 games since then at Michigan end with Michigan winning by less than two touchdowns. What's the story behind this domination when so many other schools have had at least one good day up there in 40 years?

Maize n Brew: So what you're saying is... you're due? Ask Navy How Much They're Hoping this Actually Means Something Against Notre Dame This Year.

I don't think there's any jedi mind trick, rhyme or reason for Purdue's struggles in Ann Arbor. The answer has been pretty simple, talent differential. While no one can argue the Boilermakers haven't upgraded their overall talent since Tiller's arrival, no one will argue that they're bringing in top ten classes either. Even when Purdue has shown up in Ann Arbor with arguably better teams Michigan's talent and home field advantage have trumped that. I also think Purdue has an amazing ability to catch Michigan at the wrong time. Somehow they always get Michigan on a streak or on the rebound.

No matter what the real reason is (talent, luck, voodoo curse, globalwarming, etc...) I think you can "throw out the history books" this year given both teams' play to date.

OTT: Why is Michigan struggling so much this year against the spread offense?

MNB: Replace "Spread Offense" with "Mobile Quarterback." Also replace "this year" with "since the dawn of time." If I could answer this question my season tickets would be significantly better. And on the sideline. With a head set. Ah to dream.

Back to the question. Under Carr's tenure Michigan has always managed to turn mobile quarterbacks into world beaters. It's not because there are four receivers on the field. It's not because our guys can't get pressure. To me it's a coaching philosophy, especially this year, that is so risk averse it can't decide what it wants to protect against: e.g., QB running, QB throwing. So we end up getting the worst of both worlds because we're half protecting against the run and half the pass which leaves our defenders back on their heels and out of position to make a play. Pick one dammit!

Personally, I'd prefer to let the QB beat us with his arm (we've actually got decent CB's despite the negative press). A large part of this year's struggles stem from a young LB corps, many of whom are just now learning the position. A couple are converted DE's, RB's and safeties. The rest are either manbearfreak Shawn Crable, or guys that haven't seen the field. So combine bad defensive play calling with a bunch of n00bs at LB and you have our problemst his year.

OTT: Mike Hart is obviously a great back who gets a ton of carries. How pivotal will he be for Michigan to continue their domination ofPurdue, especially considering he ran for 206 yards and a touchdown as a freshman in 2004 against the Boilers?

MNB: Hart's basically been our entire offense. Stop him and we're screwed. It's that simple. Henne's been erratic all year. He's lobbing horrid interceptions into bad reads or double coverage, our premier receiver is in Carr's doghouse and the right side of our line is held together by duct tape and bubble gum. Hart is the key for both teams. I gotta believe that favors Michigan.

OTT: As a fan how shocking was the Appy State loss and how did it contribute to the Oregon loss the following week? Was USC's loss to Stanford last week more of a shock?

The ASU loss was crushing, don't get me wrong, but it's not a loss that should've happened. FG miscues, stupid penalties, receivers and defensive backs that left their legs in the locker room. There may have been a hangover against Oregon, but Michigan actuallyled 7-3. No Oregon was a butt whuppin' where ASU was a comedy oferrors.

Between ASU/UM and Stanford/USC, I'm not sure which is worse. I think the "spread" on the USC game was insane, 40+ on a conference opponent? Are you kidding me? Where Michigan was 5th with major issues and questions, USC was a consensus No.1 in the media and Coaches Poll. Stanford was 1-3 going into that game and hasn't had a winning season since Willingham was at the helm. So I guess, maybe that game was a little more shocking nationally. But the ASU game really knocked the wind out of me.

OTT: What is your perception of Purdue as a program, wannabe big shot or really good middle of the pack team?

MNB: Middle of the pack. There's always the chance Purdue will enter that upper tier in the conference, but it's going to take a significant commitment from the athletic department to do so. Until 80,000 crazies cram every game, I've gotta say middle of the pack.

OTT: Finally a prediction, how do you see Saturday's game playing out?

MNB: Prediction: I'll be drinking either way.

Thanks Dave! My answers to his questions will be available on Maize N' Brew later this week!

Big Ten Blogger's Roundtable Week 7

I missed out on last week’s Big Ten Blogger’s Roundtable because I was swamped with other writing projects and everything else (read: NCAA Football 08 came in the mail and I had to put in the Purdue rosters). I am back this week and ready to face the daunting gauntlet set up by Run up the Score.

1. We’re halfway through the season. Practically the entire national media has declared that the Big Ten is having a down year. Is this cyclical, or is the conference actually becoming less and less relevant? What is your team doing to enhance or destroy the conference’s reputation?

See, I hate this crap. As I saw earlier somewhere on the internet, if the SEC has teams like Kentucky or South Carolina rise to the top while Georgia and Florida sink back a little it is because of the depth of the conference. If Indiana and Illinois have a good season but Michigan and Penn State struggle the Big Ten is having a down year. We’re hurting right now because of a bad bowl season last year that saw Purdue not show up for its bowl game, Minnesota blow an epic lead, and Ohio State and Michigan came out flat against great teams. When you couple that with the pre-season this year that saw Michigan lose twice more in stunning fashion, Northwestern lose to Duke, Iowa to Iowa State, and Minnesota have two inexcusable losses for six of the conference’s seven non-conference losses the perception is down. The perception is only there because out of 44 non-conference games just two (Oregon-Michigan and Missouri-Illinois) were against teams that are now ranked.

I don’t think the Big Ten is down so much as it is balanced for the first time in a long time. Ohio State is clearly the best team right now and Minnesota is clearly the worst. The remaining nine, with Illinois at the top and Iowa at the bottom are at the stage where you can’t differentiate easily between any of them.

Purdue certainly didn’t help matters this past week by getting drilled before a national audience. The general feeling in the media though right now is that Ohio State merely proved they were that good as opposed to Purdue being exposed. The sad thing is that if Purdue finishes with a 10-2 record this year it will be because the Big Ten was down and we took advantage of weaker Michigan and Penn State teams. We won’t get any credit because there is this picture in the media that anyone outside of Michigan or Ohio State can only beat those two when they are down.

2. Illinois is winning football games. Football games! Illinois! How much longer will we have to put up with this crap?

I’m as stunned as anyone here because I thought the Illini would be dangerous enough to shock a few teams and get to a bowl, but not be 5-1 right now. I’m going to hold off on giving them the Rose Bowl until they prove they can actually throw the ball when it matters. Their offense is currently too one-dimensional and if they face a team that will force them to throw the ball by stopping the run they will struggle.

Until that happens they will continue to win games.

3. I’m a man! I’m 32! For you, fair Big Ten Blogger, where does the line get drawn when, as Sunday Morning QB eloquently states, “second-guessing the split-second decisions of college kids under extreme physical duress”? Hypothetically speaking, would you settle for saying that your underwhelming quarterback “simply isn’t performing well and needs to be replaced”, or would you call him “a functional retard that is one drool cup shy of riding the short bus to practice”?

I won’t rip on kids unless they do something colossally stupid. A few years ago Purdue third string tight end name Garret Bushong mouthed off to the media about being a god on campus and all athletes should be treated as such. Here is his exact letter to the Purdue Exponent:

This letter is a shoutout to all of the athletes of Purdue. I am personally sick and tired of all the bad ink we are getting, and it is really time to put an end to it. Yeah, I got an OWI, so what! It’s over, and everyone now knows about it. It’s not like 300 other students on this campus haven’t gotten one, yet the names of those people are not put on the front page of the Exponent followed up three months later by a headline on the back page of the Sports section. I know all those people putting the paper together don’t have anything better to write about, and I am not mad at them for that. I am mad because they continuously are publishing articles that make us look so bad. If I am not mistaken, you guys go to Purdue too and I thought you would have a little more respect for your fellow classmates and the people who bring millions of dollars into this university year after year. So to all of my basketball players, football players, soccer girls, softball girls, wrestlers, cross country, track and field guys and girls, divers, golfers, tennis girls and guys, volleyball girls and baseball players, forget what ya heard. We’re here to stay, we all know what we do for this school and what we give back. We run this place and if anyone begs to differ, I’ll say what my good buddy Brandon Kirsch once said. “You know where to find me, locker number three, so come and say what you need to say to my face.” Lastly I would like to give another shoutout to the athletes who have gotten bad ink in the Exponent lately. I feel for ya!

Represent in 2006.

Garret Bushong

This kid was our 3rd string tight end and I don’t think I ever remember seeing him on the field except on special teams, but he was a highly touted recruit so we had to listen to him. He knew better than to act like this, and he received his well-deserved backlash for it. These kids are between 18 and 23, and they’re still growing up. I was that old not that long ago and I know I thought I knew everything, but didn’t. I’ll cut them slack for what they do on the field, but if they act like idiots off the field, like Garret here, they are fair game.

4. Finally, a quick two-part question. Which player or players on your team have you been pleasantly surprised with this season, and what is the most important game remaining on your schedule?

If I had to pick one player I would go with our placekicker Chris Summers. Chris came in as a true freshman walk-on last year and won the starting kicker job over scholarship recruit Tim Daugherty and 5th year senior Casey Welch. Chris has a big leg, but to say he struggled with accuracy last year is like calling the Pacific Ocean a little damp. He made five of his first six field goals, but only three of his last 14 to finish the year 8 of 20. In the offseason though he really worked on his game, has now made a school record 71 PAT’s in a row, and is 8 of 10 this year on field goal with one miss being a block. He was a perfect 4 for 4 against Notre Dame and really was a big reason we won that game. He did all in the face of holding off Daugherty in camp and in the news that Purdue recruited one of the top kickers in the country for next year.

As far as Purdue’s biggest remaining game I am going to say it is this week at Michigan. We haven’t won at the Big House since Bob Griese was our quarterback in 1967 and a win would not just end 40 years of futility in Ann Arbor, it would end the doubt that we’re going to go on another slide after losing a big nationally televised game. We need a win like this in the worst way and a W would go a long way toward Purdue’s first 10 win season since 1979 and only second ever.

Big Ten Mid-Season Review

Since we are now halfway through the season It's time to take a look back at my original predictions for the conference and revise them to what I think will happen the rest of the way. Right now two teams seem to have separated themselves from everyone else, and they are in opposite directions. Right now we can agree that Ohio State is head and shoulders above everyone else, while Minnesota is clearly the worst team in the conference. The remaining nine teams are a jumbled mass of more questions than I have answers for, with Iowa steaming towards Minnesota at the moment and Illinois leaning closer to Ohio State. CFN seems to think the Illini are so good they will net an at large bid to the BCS with Ohio State being in the title game. I won't go that far yet, but I do agree that they are clearly the number two team at the moment.

It is entirely possible nine teams will have enough victories at this point to qualify for a bowl and that will make things very interesting in early December when it comes time to hand out invites. Right now no fewer than six teams have a chance at New Year's Day bowl or better, but only four will get one. People may say the conference is down, but I don't think a competitive conference where one team is clearly above the other necessarily means they are down.

In this week's rankings I will review my original prediction for each team and outline a best case plus worst case scenario for each team. I'll even try to predict what bowl each will go to, but things are still very fluid at this point because anyone can beat anyone from here on out. This week the number in parenthesis will not be last week's ranking, but my original prediction ranking with predicted record.

Mid-Season Big Ten Power Rankings:

1. (3. 10-2, 6-2) Ohio State (6-0, 3-0)

The Buckeyes will be here until someone beats them. They have tied a school record for consecutive conference wins and appear to be unstoppable. There is a ton of season to be played yet, but they just shut down what may end up being the second best team in the conference and most balanced offense they will face all year. The offense isn't scoring a ton, but it is scoring more than enough for that defense to finish the job if it keeps playing at a high level. Even the schedule plays out nicely as Illinois and Wisconsin both have to come to the Horseshoe later this year.

Penn State and Michigan are not playing well enough right now to pull off home wins against the Buckeyes, and I'm not sure anyone can score enough on that defense in order to beat them. After seeing them thoroughly dismantle Purdue in person Saturday night I have come to the conclusion that Ohio State will only beat themselves. Todd Boeckman's three interceptions were cause for future concern, but the defense made sure they weren't hurt by them.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 12-0 and the National title game. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 10-2 and the Capitol One Bowl.

2. (10. 4-8, 1-7) Illinois (5-1, 3-0)

Illinois is playing with the house's money at this point after two home wins against ranked teams have put them in the top 25 for the first time since 2001. This is the worst prediction I made of a team all year. I originally said they might compete for a bowl if they win three non-conference games and get to the Northwestern game having beaten Indiana and Minnesota in the conference. They've easily blown past my original prediction and until they run into a team that can stop their running game and make them pass they will continue to win.

With the way Iowa is playing right now Illinois should win this week to get to bowl eligibility, and there are still wins on the schedule against Minnesota and Ball State. Northwestern is such a wildcard that if they get in a crazy shootout with anyone you don't know what can happen. Right now the Illini will go as far as their running game can take them, and with everyone but Ohio State struggling to stop the run they can go pretty far.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 10-2 and an at large BCS Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 8-4 and the Alamo Bowl.

3. (4. 10-2, 6-2) Wisconsin (5-1, 2-1)

Wisconsin ran into a hot team at the wrong time on the road. Still, a good Wisconsin team is not playing well if it gives up nearly 300 yards on the ground no matter who they are playing. Something is not right with the Badgers right now, but there is no reason they cannot be 8-1 by the time they travel to Ohio State. On Saturday the Badgers fell behind 17-0 and simply didn't have enough to catch up. Wisconsin came close, but Illinois always seemed to have an answer and the running game kept churning away.

There is so little separation at this point that Wisconsin could easily go on a slide as much as they could get on a roll. Right now Wisconsin is the team that I absolutely cannot figure out in any way, shape, or form. With the number of close games they have had they could have lost to UNLV, Michigan State, and Iowa if not for a handful of plays. They let bad teams hang around, but they have more than enough talent to beat anyone.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 10-2 and a BCS at large bid. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 8-4 and the Alamo Bowl.

4. (5. 9-3, 5-3) Purdue (5-1, 1-1)

Ah the Boilermakers, the team that can't win the big game, but can beat the mediocre. If everyone aside from the three teams above this ranking are mediocre Purdue should be in for a banner year then! I tend to believe that what happened Saturday night was 75% a result of a great Ohio State defense, 10% from bad execution, and 15% from bad coaching. Once again Purdue got pantsed on national TV, and hopefully they can turn it around at Michigan this week.

There is not a single team left on the schedule that Purdue cannot beat. I am sick and ashamed of the fans of my own team right now though first for selling thousands of tickets to Ohio State fans, then for turning on them because they got beat by a really, really good team. This team can still have a great year, and there's absolutely no excuse to finish less than 9-3 with that offense and an improving defense. I don't think we'll win both games at Michigan and Penn State, but we can certainly win one. We have no reason to lose at home the rest of the year either and I know we can beat Indiana.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 10-2 and the Capitol One Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 8-4 and the Alamo Bowl.

5. (1. 11-1, 7-1) Michigan (4-2, 2-0)

Michigan may be one of the ugliest 4-2 teams in the country. Their offense has been able to score some, but only against sub-par teams. The defense is still susceptible to a spread attack, and only stopped Northwestern because the Wildcats continued to shoot themselves in the foot. Because of the talent factor alone this team can run the table, but a few Michigan blogs I have read have said they are playing very uninspired football. They are ripe to lose a few games to some teams on the rise.

The wuss fans on Purdue's own message board have given up hope of winning at Michigan this week because of history, but right now we can beat them as they have struggled mightily against the spread this year. Even Michigan fans don't know what to think of the Wolverines at mid-season, and they could be one more loss from total collapse.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 9-3 and the Capitol One Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 6-6 and the Insight Bowl.

6. (7. 7-5, 3-5) Indiana (5-1, 2-1)

This week's game at Michigan State will go a long way to deciding exactly where both teams rank in the conference. An Indiana win suddenly means eight or nine wins is a real possibility. Even 10 isn't outside the realm of thought if they stay hot. The Hoosiers are playing with confidence, poise, and a surprisingly good pass rush that can disrupt a lot of teams. They also have the factor of teams overlooking them thinking they are the same old Hoosiers. I fear Purdue may do just that in the Bucket game and find themselves bucketless for the first time in six years.

When every game is competitive suddenly on a level playing field emotion can give you that extra edge, and right now the Hoosiers have it. As well as they are playing the only game I think that may be out of their reach is the trip to Wisconsin. At the very least a fun shootout in East Lansing Saturday night is in order. There is no way this team doesn't go bowling now.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 9-3 and the Outback Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 7-5 and the Insight Bowl.

7. (2. 11-1, 7-1) Penn State (4-2, 1-2)

Penn State finally broke through and won a conference game, but lost a running back this week due to a nasty off the field incident. Austin Scott was already in the doghouse for fumbling issues, but this latest development eliminates him as an option. Penn State is a team much like Michigan that based on talent alone can hang with anyone else in the conference, but they have so far not shown that needed killer instinct. It's because of that that they can be beaten by almost anyone in the conference.

In looking at the rest of Penn State's schedule the only near certain win is the game at Temple. Outside of that each game could be a struggle for a team that is severely underachieving and has as many issues on offense as Penn State. Can Penn State score enough to beat Indiana on the road or Purdue at home if the defense has a lapse? Right now Penn State is in the exact same boat as Michigan, only I feel the Wolverines are just beginning to get over some issues while Penn State's are still fresh.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 9-3 and the Outback Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 6-6 and the Insight Bowl.

8. (11. 2-10, 0-8) Michigan State (4-2, 0-2)

Michigan State is a prime example of everyone putting too much stock in the non-conference season. At least with Purdue people were guarded and had a wait and see approach. With the Spartans a 4-0 start already had some people putting them in a New Year's Day game. Despite the weakness of that schedule Michigan State was the hot team on the rise, and now one shootout loss to Northwestern has caused the replays of Michigan State collapses to coming out.

This is a good, talented team, but they are still unproven and it shows. They face a must win game at home against Indiana this week or an 0-4 conference start will find them suddenly fighting to even reach a bowl game. If that happens they would need to get at least one of a finishing kick against Michigan, Purdue, and Penn State to stay alive. You have to think Spartan fans are rocking back and forth right now nervously.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 8-4 and the Alamo Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 5-7 and no bowl.

9. (8. 6-6, 2-6) Northwestern (3-3, 1-2)

With one mild upset the Wildcats are alive and kicking. C.J. Bacher just put the fear of God into defensive coordinators around the conference with a nutty 520 yard, 5 TD passing performance that will make Northwestern a dangerous team to face the rest of the year. Michigan State's defense has played much better than this against better competition and Bacher completely torched them. If not for the Duke loss I would have the Wildcats a lot higher right now.

With Minnesota, Eastern Michigan, and an Iowa team that won't be able to score enough to beat the Wildcats six wins and a possible bowl are on the horizon. The Michigan State win also means they would be a slot ahead of the Spartans come selection time if they finish with even records. Since there is no Wisconsin or Penn State on the schedule Northwestern may not be out of it in any game it has left except maybe Illinois and Purdue, even then that offense can still erupt for enough points.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 6-6 and the Motor City Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 5-7 and no bowl.

10. (6. 9-3, 5-3) Iowa (2-4, 0-3)

The Hawkeyes are all but done now, as they have to go at least 4-2 with a struggling offense down the stretch to make any bowl game. With Illinois and a trip to Purdue ahead it looks like a strong possibility that the losing streak will be extended to six games before things can begin to get better. What will the morale be like by then? This is a dead team walking with no offense at all and a defense that is very overworked.

It's time for Iowa to play with some pride as Illinois comes to town a big winning streak. If they can't come together and pull that game out this season will be all but officially over, and the BGNMOS curse will continue for another year.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 6-6 and the Motor City Bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 4-8 and no bowl.

11. (9. 5-7, 1-7) Minnesota (1-5, 0-3)

Minnesota is improving, but with the number of road games they have remaining there is no hope for a bowl. Even the home date against North Dakota State is difficult if you follow the following logic train: ND State waxed Central Michigan, who also got beat by Purdue. It's simply time for Minnesota to work on things for next year, as there are some nice young pieces to build around. They also still could come out and pull off a major upset just to mess with people.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 4-8 and no bowl. WORST CASE SCENARIO: 1-11 (yes, it could get that bad.)

Crossroads

Well, we learned yesterday that Ohio State is a very, very good football team. When looking at the rankings this afternoon I think we were helped by the fact that almost every team around us also lost, plus we had the best loss of that group in losing to a top 3 team. It's a bit of a step forward for the program that Ohio State improved its standing in people's eyes by producing a dominating win over us. Naturally, we dropped a little, but there is at least a modicum of respect nationally in that we did not drop out of the coaches' poll and we barely dropped out of the AP poll. I find the polls are a funny thing, as the one the media puts the most stock in, the AP poll, is not even used to figure the BCS at all anymore. Right now we kept our ranking on a probationary measure, and it can easily be regained.

So now we are at a crossroads, as we head to Michigan with a temporary reprieve and a chance to begin the second half with a signature victory. Even a win at Michigan over a subpar Wolverine team would still be a very good win, especially since we haven't won there in 40 years. A win at Michigan would put us back in both polls, keep us right at the top of the Big Ten in case Ohio State slips badly, and keep us in line for a New Year's Day bowl.

Last night, however, was still a blow to the program, but it was not as harsh of a blow as originally thought. While part of the blame lies on us, many people seem to believe that Ohio State is just a really, really good football team. I tend to agree as they put on a clinic on how to win a night game on the road. First it helped that they always travel well and brought several thousand fans. The O-H-I-O cheer was embarrassing in the second half, and should never happen in any venue outside of one's home stadium. Second, they came out and immediately stopped us. I was encouraged that we at least moved the ball a bit, even on the ground, on the first drive, but we were still stopped. Third, they responded with a quick touchdown drive to go up 7-0. Fourth, they produced another stop. Fifth, they got yet another touchdown drive to put us down 14-0 very early.

Since we had not played from behind since the opener at Toledo I wasn't sure how we were going to respond. Meanwhile, Ohio State got in our heads by saying, "We're up 14-0 and we've already topped your good offense twice, what makes you think you're going to come back?" It was the worst possible beginning for us, and as a team that has not responded well to challenges in the past, it sucked the air right out of the stadium. The only chance we had in this game was to come out and play our style early and get a score to start. I was actually in favor of putting the defense on the field first to challenge them and get the crowd behind them early. A stop then would have given us some early momentum, but this was the first of a few big coaching errors on the night.

Now we're down 14-0, and we reverted to typical Purdue. We completely abandoned the running game instead of sticking with a game plan that might have still worked. We had had some success moving the ball on the ground. Sheets wasn't breaking off 20 yard runs but he had multiple 3-5 yard gains early. Once we started to break away from it though Ohio State figures us and knew exactly what we were going to do. They then simply sat back and waited for us to do it. They knew they could stop our running game with just the front seven, and even the front four in some instances. They knew they could pressure Painter and force some errant throws. They also knew that even if they gave up a few plays they could stop a drive before we got into serious scoring range.

Even when we did something right Ohio State never lost confidence. The three interceptions were great defensive plays, and I will give a ton of credit to the D for playing a pretty decent game after getting shocked early, but two of those interceptions came inside the five yard line. That's just like a great punt if you're Ohio State, and they had to be totally confident we weren't driving 97 yards against them.

We made our share of mistakes to help them out. A poor punt and a fumble on a kickoff gave Ohio State great field position and 10 points. Without those two mistakes it could have been a totally different game at the half. We also stuck with our typical play calling by expecting the same plays that had been stuffed before to work again. Where were our option runs? Where were any reverses or anything else to mix things up and provide a spark? The defense was actually a pleasant surprise, and I echo the sentiments of many in that I would have like our chances if you had told me we were only going to give up 23 points. I thought we could score more than that, but man that Buckeye defense was good and they completely took us off our gameplan.

Painter himself did not have a bad game, considering he often had someone in his jersey. Still, it's never a good thing when your quarterback has to throw 60 times a game. He did not have a pick though (a few were dropped), and he generally did well. The coaching mistakes were big, but they were not bigger than the fact that Ohio State was just better than us. We didn't execute a perfect game like we needed and the fact Ohio State is just a better team became an even more pronounced difference.

I know we can compete with teams like this, but we have to play a near perfect game to do so and for whatever reason we have been unable to do that in the past few years. Some of it is coaching, some of it is a talent game, and some of it is simply the way the ball bounces at times. Ohio State is a great team, and they deserve their top 3 ranking at the moment because they have yet to suffer any kind of a letdown like so many good teams have done this year. There's isn't a better team in the Big Ten right now, and I remain confident that if we can play to our ability we can still have a very good season. I am comfortable in saying that we just got beat by a better team, as they beat us in every phase.

So where are we now? Like 109 other teams in the country we have a loss, and there are some very, very good teams that are in the same boat as us. We got worked by one of the best teams in the country at home to the tune of 16 points, but USC, a team regarded as the most talented in the land, dropped a game also at home to a team that hasn't been relevant in years. We won't see a better team in our final six games, and each of those games is winnable. This can still be a good season and we can still gain some respect, but there can be no moping. We have to turn it around now.

It's time to focus on Michigan. I tip my hat to the Buckeyes and wish them the best on the season. They are now the conference's last hope for a national title, and I wish them luck. We have a chance next week to do something we haven't done in 40 years, and if we can get things back on track we can also prove that we are not the same old Purdue that will go into the tank after one loss. The Wolverines are susceptible to a spread offense, and if we are patient and play our style of ball we can finally do something positive in our Big House of horrors.

If Appalachian State can do it then so can we.

Week 6 Big Ten Preview

There are some good games this week in the conference, but none as big as the Purdue-Ohio State one Saturday night at Ross-Ade. Personally, I have been alternately confident we're going to shock the nation and scared to death that we're going to be exposed in front a national audience to be mocked mercilessly. Maybe I should load up the exact conditions Saturday morning on NCAA 08 for the ol' Playstation to put my mind at ease. I know that as a Purdue fan we have one shot and exactly one shot to impress people, and that is Saturday night. A loss Saturday night, especially if the game is a blowout will begin the murmurs of "same old Purdue". These will be deserved though, and even if we go on the road and beat Michigan next week and follow it up with wins against Iowa and Northwestern to start 8-1 it won't be enough. This game is our season right now, and a win will do more than anything we've accomplished since going to the Rose Bowl.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten perhaps the biggest game is Wisconsin's visit to Illinois, where an Illini win would suddenly make them a big player in the conference. Michigan essentially has a bye this week against Eastern Michigan, while everyone else is facing a critical game. It's make-or-break time all-around as we reach Stand-off week in the Big Ten.

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK:

#4 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0) at #20 Purdue (5-0, 1-0) 8pm

This is your chance Purdue. No one is giving you any credit. No one outside of West Lafayette thinks you have a chance. Everyone is snickering that you haven't played anyone, that the defense will crack, and that the offense won't do a thing against a good defense. They're calling you a paper tiger, a fraud, and a team that will wither now like it always has. This is normally when we play our best, because no one expects us. A loss kisses everything; a national ranking, a chance at the Big Ten title, and respect goodbye.

Prove them wrong.

Ohio State is a very, very good team, likely the best we will face all year. I am worried about their offense and containing a running back that can run right over us. I am worried about containing Brian Robiskie, who can create a match-up problem with everyone in our secondary. I am worried about falling behind early on a few big plays and losing confidence as we have so many times in the past. I am worried about getting embarrassed like we did the last time we appeared in a nationally televised night home game against Notre Dame two years ago.

We have the offense to do this. We have too many weapons to be completely stopped. I have seen some promise from the defense that has been very good for stretches this season but has yet to put together a whole game. I also have to wonder just how much the coaching staff has been holding back on both sides of the ball against inferior competition just for this game. So far we have done what we have done without a lot of tricks or wrinkles. It's time to go all-in and hope for the best. I think Ohio State is the better team and will break our hearts in a close game, but I know we have it in us to pull the upset and earn respect. Respect is never given, it is earned and this is your shot, Purdue.

Prove me wrong.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 24, Purdue 21

#5 Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0) at Illinois (4-1, 2-0)

Wisconsin just wins ballgames, plain and simple. Right now the Badgers are the undisputed champion of the close game, as they have mastered the concept of simply scoring more points than their opponent. People may rip them for it, but I respect them. Right now there are nine teams in the country without a win led by Florida International who hasn't walked off the field victorious in almost two years. Do you think they would throw back a Wisconsin-type victory? Hell no!

Illinois has been way too one-dimensional this year to be favored against the #5 team in the country home or away. The Illini have a heck of a running game but Wisconsin can concentrate more on stopping the run this week because Juice Williams isn't as big of a threat when throwing as Brian Hoyer of Michigan State was. Williams and Mendenhall should be able to find some daylight to run, but Williams will need to have more than 11 completions to win. It's nice to see Illini fans fired up about their team for the first time in a long time, but Wisconsin seems like they are locked in right now on winning no matter what. That's too much of an edge right now.

Wisconsin 31, Illinois 24

Minnesota (1-4, 0-2) at Indiana (4-1, 1-1) noon

Do you wonder if Indiana might just be looking ahead a little bit against the Gophers? I don't think so, not after they have hung a combined 105 points on the Hoosiers the last two seasons. Last year's visit to the Metrodome was supposed to be a coronation and return to the postseason. Instead Minnesota flat-out waxed them to the tune of 63-26 and began its own run to an unlikely bowl. It's hard to see Indiana missing a bowl game at this point, and a win this week all but locks it up.

Indiana had perhaps the most impressive win of anyone in the conference last week as they shockingly dominated Iowa all day. Minnesota also turns the ball over way too much and they will need to solve that to have any chance here. If the Gophers ever stop giving the ball away they have enough of an offense to take a bite out of someone. Even the Gopher defense wasn't that bad against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes didn't need that much in holding them to seven points.

What has this world come to when Indiana is favored in any Big Ten game by almost two touchdowns?

PREDICTION: Indiana 38, Minnesota 21

Eastern Michigan (2-3) at Michigan (3-2, 2-0) noon

What would be a worse loss: Michigan losing this game to a perennial MAC doormat or the Appalachian State loss against a two time national champion? I would think the Eastern Michigan one, but it's not going to happen. Then again, Appalachian State wasn't going to happen either. Appalachian State can actually score points against anyone they play. Eastern Michigan cannot.

The Wolverines will have little trouble in this one and that is what scares me. Even if Purdue pulls off the upset it will likely come in a long, drawn out battle while Michigan will have essentially a bye week before facing us. Queue up a clip of Nelson Muntz if Michigan somehow loses this one, but otherwise expect this game to be over by halftime.

PREDICTION: Michigan 41, Eastern Michigan 3

Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) at Michigan State (4-1, 0-1) noon

Speaking of revenge games in reference to the IU game, how motivated do you think Northwestern is to play Michigan State after last year's epic choke? Michigan State fans also have to be quietly wondering if things will start falling apart after a close loss like they have so many times recently. Mark Dantonio seems to have this team much more focused than his predecessor, but if Northwestern comes out and gets an early score or to the collective sphincter of all Michigan State fans will have to tighten just a little.

How has one team suffered so much from missing a single player like Northwestern has by missing Tyrell Sutton? He makes that offense better and they haven't been able to do much of anything without him. Sure, they piled up a bunch of yards against Michigan last week, but as Purdue found out last year games are not decided by yards gained. If they can somehow win this game Northwestern can amazingly still hope of a bowl game as they have Minnesota and Eastern Michigan coming up. Michigan State wants to prove at home they are vastly improved and immune to another collapse. They shouldn't have a ton of trouble in doing so.

PREDICTION: Michigan State 28, Northwestern 20

Iowa (2-3, 0-2) at Penn State (3-2, 0-2) 3:30pm

After a nightmare-ish couple of weeks you have two very angry football teams meeting in Happy Valley Saturday amid the ruins of shattered hopes and dreams. Both teams have dominant aspects, but are fatally flawed and have been exposed in recent weeks. It is a stand-off to see who is going to salvage what's left of the season and play spoiler against everyone else and who is going to pack it in and fight to merely make a bowl game.

That being said, I think Penn State is due for a break out this week, as their fans are angry and they want to see the Nittany Lions just put a hurting on someone. Iowa has a good defensive line, but that offense is pretty bad right now with only a parking attendant and peanut vendor available for Jake Christensen to throw to. Iowa cannot afford to fall behind at all right now and it is putting way too much pressure on a good defense that almost needs to pitch a shutout.

Iowa has had Penn State's number of late having won five in a row, and we all know how well Penn State has responded to similar challenges this year. This very easily could go down as the ugliest game of the season in conference play because of Penn State's own inconsistencies on offense, but not as ugly as the 6-4 game Iowa won two years ago on a three-run homer in the ninth.

PREDICTION: Penn State 24, Iowa 10

NATIONAL GAMES OF THE WEEK:

I don't know how to act, as I have gotten to this point of the article and I have plenty of space to take a look at some national games of interest. At the same time we are playing Ohio State much of the country can also watch #7 Florida at #2 LSU. This game obviously lost some of its shine last week when Auburn beat Florida on a last second field goal, but kudos should be given to Auburn kicker Wes Byrum. After making the second kick as time expired, Byrum had the sheer balls to do the Gator Chomp at mid-field in front of the stunned Swamp fans. This kid is lucky he got out of the stadium alive after that, but it was funny to watch. LSU has already annihilated a top 10 team at home this year (see Tech, Virginia) in a high profile game and they happened to play in one of the most intimidating stadiums on earth. LSU 20, Florida 10

Since Texas and Oklahoma both choked away games last week the game I am interested in seeing is #17 Missouri at #23 Nebraska. Since the Alamo Bowl seems to be our most likely projection at the moment (subject to change) we very well could see one of these teams there. Missouri has some moxie as they are the only team to knock off Illinois so far, but they really haven't played anyone else. Nebraska got embarrassed at home by USC, then almost lost to Ball State (and probably should have). Missouri is facing a "prove it" game like us, and they will gain a ton of respect with a win. Nebraska has been too shaky so far, and I don't like them even at home. Missouri 24, Nebraska 21.

LAST WEEK: 6-2, SEASON RECORD: 42-10

GUEST POST: Buckeye Lane views Purdue-Ohio State

Stepping back into the Big Ten season means we have another guest blogger. This week Adam Kiefaber from Buckeye Lane stops by to give his thoughts on our upcoming game in West Lafayette He asked me a set of questions that will be posted on Buckeye Lane tomorrow and he answers my set of questions here. Please welcome Adam Kiefaber!

Off the Tracks: Ohio State has obviously long been the class of the Big Ten along with Michigan. Since Purdue hired Joe Tiller he is only 1-5 against the Wolverines, being blown out in all but one of those losses. He's only slightly better at 2-4 against Ohio State, but they have played some memorable close games and five of the six have been decided in the final minutes. What do you attribute this to?

Buckeye Lane: Maybe good timing, Ohio State hasn't played Purdue since 2004. Last year, Purdue (8-6, 5-3 Big Ten) was a solid team, but OSU (12-1, 8-0) was a great team. 2005, Purdue (5-6, 3-5) was awful for its standards and OSU (10-2, 7-1) was very good. 2004 was a rebuilding year for the Buckeyes; both teams finished 4-4 in the Big Ten. Purdue won 24-17 at home that year, but quarterback Troy Smith was making his fourth career start and it showed when he was picked off three times. Both teams were evenly matched in 2003 and again the home team won. I will touch on the "Holy Toledo" and "Holy Buckeye" plays in the next question. Overall, I would say good timing and Purdue's recent strength at the quarterback position.

Off the Tracks: Are you as tired of seeing the "Holy Toledo" Brees to Morales play as we are of seeing the "Holy Buckeye" play of two years later?

Buckeye Lane: Honestly I haven't seen the "Holy Toledo" or the "Holy Buckeye" play that much in recent years. I think that is because the two schools haven't played each other since 2004. However, I know that I will be tired of seeing those plays come Saturday. First I want to touch on the "Holy Buckeye" play. In 2002, the Buckeyes won a bunch of low-scoring thrilling games. I know it had to be rough for Purdue fans – fourth and one – against a 10-0 team. However, that 2000 "Holy Toledo" play was just as heartbreaking to Buckeye fans. Drew Brees was such a good player, after throwing four interceptions then making that play. But OSU didn't deserve to win since Brees was matched up against Steve Bellisari.

Off the Tracks: Obviously the storyline is Purdue high-powered offense against Ohio State's Great defense, but the game may be decided the opposite way. Ohio State has been a slow starter offensively most of this season against inferior competition, while Purdue's defense has allowed only 20 points in the first half combined and 14 of those came in the opener at Toledo. How do you see this making a difference Saturday? If Purdue is able to jump out to a lead like it has in its past games can Ohio State play from behind? Can Purdue for that matter?

Buckeye Lane: I have been trying to convince Buckeye fans for weeks to be worried about this game. It is very unpredictable, considering neither team has played a tough schedule. I believe that the Buckeye defense will shut down Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor, which will force Curtis Painter to be like Brett Farve and throw every down. I like cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, but I do think that he is overrated and Dorien Bryant could beat him. I don't know if the Buckeyes are a slow starter, four out of their five games they scored on their opening drive. The last two weeks, Ohio State has scored 42 first quarter points. Overall, OSU is a slow team that traditionally plays that boring brand of Big Ten football. Honestly, I don't know what is going to happen on Saturday. I believe both teams have the ability to comeback. Ohio State was trailing Washington 3-7 at halftime. Purdue has the offense to make plays. This weekend, I think a lot will be learned about both teams.

Off the Tracks: Obviously with a 23 game regular season winning streak Ohio State comes in with a ton of confidence. What scares you the most and what scenario would you see that streak ending on Saturday?

Buckeye Lane: The team's confidence scares me the most. I truly believe that was the reason the Buckeyes lost the National Championship, not the lay off, but they were too confident. As of right now, I think the Buckeyes will win in a 35-17 game. However, my opinion is slightly biased and I haven't seen that much of Purdue this season. Another thing that scares me is that this is a night game on the road, which is something the Buckeyes have struggled with in the past. So the atmosphere, Purdue's passing game and an overly confident OSU team worries me the most.

Off the Tracks: Finally I ask (and be honest) because my wife is a University of Miami grad and is still pissed about the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. Was that really pass interference?

Buckeye Lane: I touched on this subject on the Big Ten Roundtable (http://www.buckeyelane.com/big-ten-roundtable-of-bloggers-week-five/) last week. Honestly, I believe that there was defensive holding on the play. While the ball was in the air, Glenn Sharpe was all over Chris Gamble. Most replays just show the end of play, which was still questionable in my book. If you watch football you see countless plays where the defender is called for pass interference when he defends the receiver and not the ball. Sharpe doesn't look for the ball and is playing Gamble. I see that call being called over and over again on every level of the game, but when it happens that late with the title on the line it is going to upset some people. Isn't it interesting that the first thing Sharpe did after the play was glance at the referee to see if he was going to miss the call? Then back judge called it late, which makes it a bigger mess. I defiantly can see Miami fans being upset with the call, but Buckeye fans would be angry if they didn't call it. It is truly one of those calls that will never lose it controversial tag.

Thanks for stopping by, Adam, and enjoy the game on Saturday.

Big Ten week 5 in review (The Rebels are rising!)

What a week last week! Not only did nationally ranked teams fall left and right, but in our own conference Michigan State, Indiana, and Illinois showed that their previous also-ran status is a thing of the past. Although Michigan State didn't win they traded blows with Wisconsin in what was a surprisingly high-scoring affair. Illinois and Indiana also both got surprise wins and now face a near certain bowl game unless they royally screw up. While Purdue's win wasn't surprising over Notre Dame, the margin was surprising especially considering the Boilermakers played their worst game of the season. Even Northwestern nearly kept the shocking trend going by hanging tough with Michigan. What on earth is going on here?

I am getting really tired of people saying the Big Ten isn't that good just because traditional powers like Michigan and Penn State are struggling while Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Indiana are on their way to their best seasons in the past five years or so. Three programs do not a conference make, but because the rest of the teams aren't "name" programs the whole conference must be down even though those teams are playing well. Kentucky and South Carolina are not traditional powers, but people think it is great they have a huge SEC game this week. People are falling over South Florida and htey didn't even have football 12 years go. We will see as the season goes along, but if the conference is struggling so much then why did it have eight projected bowl bids with two of them being the BCS variety?

If you would read some articles though Notre Dame is suddenly the team to beat because of two fantastic catches on touchdown passes that allowed them to outscore a team in half of a football game. Fortunately we are done with the Irish and they are free to continue a losing streak that will soon reach double digits because they're too stupid to realize that Evan Sharpley is the better quarterback who can help them win now. Instead they will stick with the injured and overrated Jimmy Montana. The moment they were all waiting for finally happened when little Jimmy threw his first touchdown pass Saturday, and even though it happened right in front of my section 128 seats I don't remember hearing a heavenly choir or seeing any wise men bearing myrrh. Enough about the Irish though, as I won't mention them again this year and I consider them as irrelevant as the rest of the winless teams in the country. It's time for the weekly Big Ten Power Rankings.

1. (1) Ohio State (5-0, 2-0)

Here is your mission Purdue: Knock off the best team in the conference and maybe one of the best in the country. Some will question who the Buckeyes have played. Well, the win at Washington is a good one for starters. The Huskies have played one of the most difficult schedules in the country so far and they have been competitive in every game. The rest of the slate hasn't been as tough as Northwestern and Minnesota are the bottom of the Big 10 and Akron and Youngstown State aren't exactly world beaters. The Buckeye defense is awfully impressive and will carry them far.

Brian Robiskie is turning into one hell of a receiver and I fear he may have a big day against our secondary that struggled to contain Notre Dame in the second half last week. I can't forget Chris Wells either, as he is the best running back we have faced so far and may just be a warm up for Mike Hart. As much as the defense scares me, I think we have enough wrinkles in our offense to move the ball and at least score a little. We won't get our usual 35-40, but I think we can at least get into the 20's simply because we have so many weapons.

With Ohio State it is their offense that is starting to scare me, as they have been much more explosive lately than previous thought. We will need to get up on them early and stay there as their defense is too hard to come from behind against. This will be Ohio State's most difficult game until it faces Wisconsin.

2. (2) Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0)

You can say all you want about the Badgers, but they are winning and that is all that really matters. They may be the type of team that, when they give up 14 they only score 17, or they may give up 34, but score 37. Right now they are number one in the, "Just score more than the other team" club. It should be quite provocative when they face a suddenly hot Illinois team this week.

The story of the Illinois game will be the Illini defense. Michigan State proved that you can score on Wisconsin, while Iowa proved that you can't move the ball well with just a running game. Illinois will need more from the Juice this week, and Wisconsin is becoming a team that you cannot count out until they finally lose. I won't pick against them in a close one.

3. (5) Purdue (5-0, 1-0)

It's put up or shut up time as the Boilermakers are playing in their biggest game in three years. Because of what has happened since that infamous Wisconsin game no one will give Purdue any credit until they earn it, and this week is the chance to earn it. You get the impression though that Purdue could roll through the Big Ten this year and win every game by more than 10 points and people would still detract because, "it's a weak year in the Big Ten." Finally Purdue has a chance to make a statement and shut up those who say they are merely a product of their schedule.

Notre Dame ran up so many second half yards for three reasons last week. First, they abandoned the running game and started throwing on every down. Second, they left the punter in the locker room and just went for it on every fourth down. Third, they had some receivers make some amazing catches on balls that were hurled blindly in their direction. The Irish must have gotten at least half their yards that way alone.

Purdue has not trailed since the second quarter of the opening game of the season. If they can get a lead and the defense finally plays the second half like it has the first half of late (6 first half points in the last four games) then Purdue has a chance to pull the upset. Even the special teams are coming together as a special mention needs to go to Chris Summers this week. The much-maligned sophomore kicker has hit on 8 of 10 field goals this year and, though it is a minor record, connected on his school record 70^th straight PAT Saturday. He is actually leading all kickers in the country in kick-scoring (the LSU kicker has a weird touchdown to his credit).

Quite simply, a win on Saturday makes Purdue the team to beat in the Big Ten with no Wisconsin on the schedule.

4. (7) Illinois (4-1, 2-0)

And why shouldn't they be here? Their only loss was in the first game of the season against one of the better teams in a major conference. Their defense is starting to play with a ton of confidence, and if they can knock off Wisconsin this week the Illini will suddenly become a big surprise in the championship race. A bowl game is all but assured now, and Illinois can go out over the next few weeks and make it a good one. Suddenly eight wins are not outside the realm of possibility. I'm actually quite glad we don't face them now.

The only thing holding up Illinois will be a team that can stop the run. As good as Juice Williams is at running the ball he has struggled mightily passing, and with Arrelious Benn as a weapon they need to get him the ball more, especially after this week. It's nice to see a highly touted recruiting class actually begin to pay off, even with inferior coaching.

5. (3) Michigan (3-2, 2-0)

With this week's game Michigan goes back on probation. They showed they are still susceptible to a spread passing attack, it's just that Northwestern isn't running it with their normal efficiency and wasn't able to generate enough points. Win or lose against Ohio State I am liking Purdue's chances more and more because of the nature of our own offense.

Now the Wolverines have Chad Henne back, and they also have the advantage of essentially a scrimmage this week against Eastern Michigan. We have a no-holds-barred cage match for the world heavyweight title. It's time for Michigan to be Michigan again and get on a bit of a roll. Even a Big Ten title won't soothe the wounds of this season, but it would be a start.

6. (6) Michigan State (4-1, 0-1)

Michigan State finally lost, so it is time to find out if they are going to go into the tank like the past few seasons, or if this close loss will steel their will and turn them into a good football team. They get the perfect bounce back game this week in hosting Northwestern. It's amazing to see the difference a coaching change makes, as the Spartans seem so much more disciplined and confidant than they have in past years.

The offense is moving the ball well and the defense is playing well at times, although Wisconsin was the first team to contain their sack attack. The key stretch of their season begins after the Northwestern game when they host an Indiana team that annihilated them last year. A Big Ten title is probably too much to hope for, but they have an outside shot at a New Year's Day bowl.

7. (8) Indiana (4-1, 1-1)

It is time to fear and respect the Hoosiers just as much as the Illini. In Iowa's last conference win they completely shoved us around on both sides of the ball with dominant lines last year in Iowa City. Now they allow nine sacks to an Indiana team that I think had nine sacks all of last season? Illinois had an impressive win, but it was at home against a team that seemed to do everything in its power to lose offensively. Indiana went on the road smacked around Iowa, a team that was one of the best in the conference not that long ago. The fact Indiana smacked ANYONE in this conference around causes one to take notice.

As I said last week, Indiana needed this win in order to slot themselves ahead of someone bowl-wise. Now the Hoosiers merely need to get two of three very winnable games and the dream of 13 will be alive. It is beginning to look more and more like the bucket game will be for bowl positioning for just the second time ever and first since 1979.

8. (4) Penn State (3-2, 0-2)

Desperation will take center stage this week in State College as both Iowa and Penn State will look to avoid an 0-3 conference start. It is especially hard to believe this when both were looking to have a big year this year. As bad as Penn State has played the past two weeks I still think Iowa is playing worse. At least Penn State has shown some semblance of an offense that, if it had merely shown up the last two games, Penn State would still be unbeaten. I am really not sure what had gone wrong with Penn State.

I know they are better than this. The defense is too good to give up 27 points to a one-dimensional Illinois attack. The offense is too good to score only nine points against a Michigan team that gave up 34 to Appalachian State. I really feel like Iowa is walking into a huge trap and they are in store to get mauled this week.

9. (9) Iowa (2-3, 0-2)

Now it is Iowa's turn to be in the no man's land of ninth place. Much like Indiana last week, if Iowa can get to six wins there may not be enough bowl slots to go around. With its recent play you have to ask if there are even three more wins on the schedule. As much trouble as Iowa has scoring Minnesota and Northwestern are far from guarantees.

Iowa has proven they cannot overcome even the smallest of deficits so far, and should they fall behind to anyone it is pretty safe to say it is over. Giving up nine sacks to Indiana is simply inexcusable. I am officially calling Iowa's troubles the Black and Gold curse of No Michigan or Ohio State, or BGNMOS for short. In a season when much was expected because of the schedule, BGNMOS rears its ugly head again.

10. (11) Northwestern (2-3, 0-2)

At least for Northwestern the schedule can only get easier and if they can get any consistency out of their offense at all the season is not totally lost. Right now, for a winning season, the Iowa game is critical. If Tyrell Sutton can come back this team can still get a few more wins and sneak into a bowl. They will have a much more powerful offense with him, and the defense actually played well against Michigan.

Of course, they still lost to Duke, and that's just bad.

11. (10) Minnesota (1-4, 0-2)

What on earth was with those uniforms? If they play Illinois later this year and wear those with Illinois wearing its all orange TV across the Midwest will explode. They had a better performance defensively than I expected against Ohio State, but it scares me that their pretty good offense managed just seven points and we have to face the Buckeyes next.

Just please don't wear those uniforms again if you play Oregon.